$PM (+0.86%) the short interest is at an all-time high.

Apart from a few minor things, I haven't noticed anything that could really weaken the outlook for 2025.

Do you have any ideas?

Hello everyone,

My name is Antonio, I'm almost 27 years old and I'm from Bremen. I currently work as a train manager at Deutsche Bahn. Anyone who knows the job knows that chaos is almost guaranteed here. If a train is on time, everyone wonders what's going wrong. Delays, strikes, unforeseen events - you get used to the fact that nothing goes as expected. And that's exactly how I felt on the stock market: constantly chasing hypes, always on the lookout for quick profits, and in the end I never knew whether the train was still on the right track. I experienced just as much chaos on the markets as I did in my day-to-day work - but fortunately I've learned from it and am now looking for a fresh start where everything is a bit more orderly and predictable.

I've made a lot of mistakes on the stock market in the past. And not too few - unfortunately. Like many of you, I had the idea that the stock market would make me a quick buck. I let myself be led by hypes, trends and the desire for immediate results. I wasn't interested in investing for the long term or building a solid foundation for the future, I was only ever interested in making a quick profit. Leveraged products, knock-out certificates - it was all there. It felt like a casino where the loss was usually the only "win". And so it came as it had to: I not only lost money, but also confidence in my own decisions and the markets.

But today, in 2025, I have realized that it is time for a fresh start. I have learned from my mistakes. It's been a long road and I've thought a lot about why I was so quick to go for the quick buck instead of investing patiently and focusing on long-term success. I learned the lessons I needed to become a better investor. Patience, diversification and a long-term perspective are now my principles. I want to create something tangible, not just a portfolio full of numbers, but also a solid, long-term strategy that will help me to continuously build my wealth.

My portfolio: A solid foundation

The portfolio I have now built up is a mix of different asset classes and asset classes. My aim is to diversify broadly and not miss out on potential growth opportunities, while spreading risk across different sectors and regions. Here is an overview of what my investment strategy looks like:

ETFs (€1000/month)

I have deliberately opted for a broad diversification and invested in different geographical regions and markets. This diversification should ensure that my capital benefits from the markets that have the greatest potential in the coming decades.

- IE00BMTX1Y45 ( $I500) (-0.38%)

- LU0908500753 ( $MEUD (-1.28%) )

- IE00BYXVGY31 ( $FUSA (-0.27%) )

- IE00BD1F4M44 ( $IUVF (-0.4%) )

- IE00BKM4GZ66 ( $EIMI (-1.18%) )

- LU1681041973 ( $CD9 (-0.8%) )

- LU0486851024 ( $D5BL (-1.38%) )

- IE00BYQCZN58 ( $DXJZ )

- IE00BF4RFH31 ( $WSML )

- IE00BG0SKF03 ( $5MVL (-0.96%) )

- IE00B652H904 ( $SEDY (-0.83%) )

- LU2089238385 ( $PRAJ (-0.99%) )

- DE000A0H0744 ( $EXXW )

- IE00BFXR5W90 ( $LGAG )

- LU0779800910 ( $XCHA )

- HANetf Future of Defense UCITS ETF ($ASWC (-0.9%) )

So many ETFs? Does he still have all his wits about him?

Some people will think exactly that when they look at my ETF list. And yes, I admit that the portfolio is pretty broadly based - perhaps too broad for some. But that's exactly my goal. I don't want to catch the one sector or the one region that is going through the roof. I want to have everything! If a market explodes somewhere in the world, then I want to be there. Be it through large caps, small caps, growth, value, technology or emerging markets, my approach is not to miss out on potential opportunities and at the same time not to put all my eggs in one basket. Some call it overdiversification, I call it my personal "all-world approach"

The idea behind the selection of these ETFs is that I want to focus on global markets and growth regions without missing out on important sectors such as technology, healthcare and energy. The USA (with over 55% of my portfolio) remains the central component due to its economic importance and innovative strength. At the same time, I am also focusing on Europe, Asia, China and emerging markets, which are increasingly among the growth markets of the future. Small caps also play a key role for me, as they often have the potential to grow faster and offer opportunities that are often overlooked by the large institutions.

Cryptocurrencies (€100/month in Bitcoin ( $BTC ) €50/month in Ethereum ($ETH) (+1.18%)

I also invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum as I am convinced of the future of these digital currencies. Even if the volatility is high, I see the long-term potential of these technologies. For me, it is an opportunity to participate in the development of a new financial world.

Gold (50 €/month EUWAX Gold ($DE000EWG0LD1 (+1.41%) )

In uncertain times, I have realized how important it is to have conservative assets such as gold. The last few years of inflation and economic fluctuations have made me realize that gold can have a stabilizing effect, especially in times of crisis.

Individual stocks - My dividend strategy

I have also selected a few individual stocks that should not only offer me security, but also regular income through dividends. The reason for this is simple: I need something tangible, something visible. It's not just the pleasure of seeing the portfolio grow, but also the dividend that gives me the feeling of actively participating in the companies and benefiting from their success.

- 3M Co ($MMM (-0.51%) )

- Allianz ($ALV (-1.24%) )

- BioNTech ($BNTX (-6.76%) )

- Booking Holdings( $BKNG (-1.54%) )

- Coca-Cola ($KO (+1.3%) )

- LVMH ($MC (-1.87%) )

- MSCI Inc ($MSCI (+0.04%) )

- NextEra Energy($NEE (+1.49%) )

- Philip Morris ($PM (+0.86%) )

- Realty Income($O (+1.31%) )

BioNTech in particular, as a company that has promising potential not only during the pandemic but also beyond, is a long-term winner for me. Likewise NextEra Energy, which plays a key role in the renewable energy sector, and Booking Holdings, which should benefit from the global tourism trend. These companies not only pay dividends, but also show that you can benefit from a company's success with a long-term perspective.

Pension fund

I also invest in the DEVK pension fund (DE000A2PT1X3) through my employer $DE000A2PT1X3 . This fund is particularly important to me because of the generous contributions made by my employer and the solid returns. Even though the costs are somewhat higher, I see it as a long-term addition to my strategy.

Why this portfolio?

I built my portfolio this way because I believe in the potential of long-term global diversification. Rather than chasing short-term gains, I am looking for continuous value growth over many years. I want to support the right companies, benefit from promising markets and at the same time have a regular source of income through dividends.

I am no longer interested in making a quick buck. I have learned that true success in wealth accumulation lies in patience. And that's what it's all about: I want to create a solid foundation for the future - for myself, for my pension and perhaps for a house in a few years' time.

What do you think?

I'm really looking forward to hearing from you. What do you think of my strategy? Do you see any areas where I could diversify even more? Are there any asset classes or ETFs missing from my portfolio that would make sense for me? I am very keen to hear your opinions and advice.

Thank you for taking the time to read my story and strategy! I look forward to your feedback.

Best regards,

Antonio

Another small monthly update with a brief transaction and performance update from February.

Performance

• February
• Return -0.04% (FTSE All World: -1.22%)
• TTWROR -0.67%
• Since inception (Jan 2024)
• TTWROR 27.87% (FTSE All World: 27.50%)

Transactions

Purchases

• Nippon Sanso
  $4091 (+0.68%) (subsequent purchase)
• Philip Morris $PM (+0.86%) (subsequent purchase)
• Nextera Energy $NEE (+1.49%) (subsequent purchase)
• Wise $WISE (-0.13%) (initial purchase)
• Alsea $ALSEA* (-0.51%) (initial purchase)
• Kaspi $KSPI (first purchase)
• AMD $AMD (-1.81%) (first purchase)
• Hims & Hers $HIMS (subsequent purchase

sales

• LVMH $MC (-1.87%)
• 
  MSCI World $SUSW (-1.19%) (partial sale)
• Hims & Hers $HIMS (partial sale)
• Nvidia $NVDA (-2.84%) (partial sale)

Looking back now, you realize how many transactions you have made. From March there should be a maximum of 1-2 purchases and maybe 1-2 sales. If there are so many transactions again in the next update, feel free to reprimand me.

TLDR: Very strong figures from $PM (+0.86%) IQOS and ZYN continue to perform excellently and the global cigarette volume (USA excluded) is stabilizing.

I will add any further information as it comes in.

Smoke-free business (SFB):

• Quarterly shipments of smokeless products (HTU and oral products) exceeded 40 billion units for the first time.
• Full-year sales increased by 14.2 % (organically 16.7 %), gross profit by 18.7 % (organically 22.7 %).
• Smokeless products accounted for 40% of total sales and 42% of gross profit.
• The number of adult users rose to 38.6 million (+5.3 million compared to December 2023)

Smoke-free inhalable products (SFP):

• IQOS consolidated its position as the second largest nicotine brand and drove the growth of the heat-not-burn segment (over 75% of global market volume).
• In Japan, the market share of IQOS HTU increased by 3.1 percentage points to 30.6 %; the HTU segment exceeded 50 % market share in several regions.
• In Europe, IQOS HTU's market share increased to 10.6 %, with strong growth in countries such as Spain, Romania and Germany.

Vaping:

• VEEV is increasingly favored by legal poly users and is among the top 3 brands in 13 European markets (#1 in five markets, including Italy and the Czech Republic).

Oral

• annual shipments increased by 28 % (doses) and 25 % (pouches).
• Growth was driven by ZYN in the USA (+42 %) and international markets such as Pakistan and South Africa.

Combustibles:

• Annual sales increased by 4% (organically 5.9%), in the fourth quarter by 6% (organically 6.2%).
• Strong price adjustments led to gross profit growth of 10.7 %.
• Brands such as Marlboro achieved market share gains.

Although there is no detailed information on IQOS USA, here is an excerpt from the press release and transcript:

"the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the marketing of Swedish Match's General snus and ZYN nicotine pouches and versions of PMI's IQOS devices and consumables - the first-ever such authorizations in their respective categories. Versions of IQOS devices and consumables and General snus also obtained the first-ever Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorizations from the FDA."

"Turning now to the U.S., where our IQOS 3 'Be The First' campaign in Austin is

progressing well and we expect to commence direct sales of devices and HTUs in

Austin around the end of Q1. We are seeing high interest from consumers, with over

4,000 adult smokers on our waitlist."

Volume in bn units Q4

Total 193.1

Cigarettes 152.8 +1.1%

HTU 35.7 +5.1%

Oral 4.6 +22%

Revenue ($Bn) Q4

Total 9.7 +7.3% BEAT

Combustibles 5.8 +6%

SFB 3.9 +9.2%

SFB share of Rev = 40%

Gross profit ($Bn) Q4

Total 6.3 +12.5%

Combustibles 3.7 +10.7%

SFB 2.6 +15%

SFB share of Gross Profit= 42%

Operating Income ($Bn) Q4

Total 3.3 +12.8%

EPS Q4

Reported Diluted -0.38$

Adjusting Items $(1.93)

Adjusted Diluted 1.55$ +14% BEAT

Currency Impact $0.06

Adjusted Diluted ex fx 1.49$ +9.6%

Volume in bn units FY2024

Total 774 +2.9%

Cigarettes 616.8 +0.6%

HTU 139.7 +11.6%

Oral 17.4 +24.6%

Rev ($Bn) FY2024

Total 37.9 +7.7%

Combustibles 23.2 +4%

SFB 14.7 +14.2%

SFB share of Rev = 39%

Gross Profit ($Bn) FY2024

Total 24.5 +10.2%

Combustibles 14.8 +5.2%

SFB 2.6 9.7 +18%

SFB share of Gross Profit= 40%

Operating Income ($Bn) FY2024

Total 13.4 +16%

EPS FY2024

Reported Diluted $4.52 -10%

Adjusting Items $(2.05)

Adjusted Diluted $6.67 +9.3%

Currency Impact $(0.38)

Adjusted Diluted ex fx $6.95 +15.6%

Europe

Volume in bn units Q4 I FY 2024

Combustibles 38 -2.4% I 162 -1.8%

HTU 15 +6.2% I 53 +8.9%

Market Share % Q4 I FY2024

Combustibles 29.9 -30bps I 30 -30bps

HTU 10.8 +80bps I 10 +90bps

Volume in mln cans Q4 I FY2024

Nicotine pouches 13.6 +58% I 48.8 +40.2%

Snus 57.5 -5.9% I 236.4 +0.1%

Other 0.6 -20.1% I 3.4 -18.6%

Total 71.7 +1.7% I 288.9 +4.9%

Q4 in bn$

Revenue 4.05 +7.7%

Operating income 1.8 +11.4%

Adj. operating income margin 45.4% +50bps

FY2024 in bn$

Revenue 15.3 +7.9%

Operating income 6.9 +12.4%

Adj. operating income margin 46.2% +60bps

SSEA, CIS & MEA

Volume in bn units Q4 I FY2024

Combustibles 85.8 +3.4% I 344.8 +3.4%

HTU 8.4 +12.3% I 28.5 +14.8%

Q4 in bn$

Revenue 2.8 +5.9%

Operating income 0.8 +15.3%

Adj. operating income margin 28.2% +220bps

FY2024 in bn$

Revenue 11.2 +5.9%

Operating income 3.4 +9.3%

Adj. operating income margin 31% +10bps

EA, AU & DF

Volume in bn units Q4 I FY2024

Combustibles 11.4 +1.2% I 47.6 -6%

HTU 11.9 -0.1% I 56.8 +12.6%

Q4 in bn$

Revenue 1.4 +0.3%

Operating income 0.57 -0.3%

Adj. operating income margin 40.1% -20bps

FY2024 in bn$

Revenue 6.4 +3%

Operating income 2.8 +13.4%

Adj. operating income margin 45.1% +10bps

Americas

Volume in bn units Q4 I FY2024 excl. USA

Combustibles 17.1 -1.7% I 61.6 -2.6%

HTU 0.15 -25.7% I 622 +6.3%

Volume in mln cans Q4 I FY2024 incl. USA

Nicotine pouches 165.1 +42% I 581.4 +51%

Moist Snuff 32 +2.4% I 134.6 +0.6%

Snus 0.7 -9% I 2.9 -25.8%

Q4 in bn$

Revenue 1.26 +17.3%

Operating income 0.13 +100%

Adj. operating income margin 26.9% +149bps

FY2024 in bn$ (Loss)

Revenue 3.33 +8.8%

Operating income (391) +55%

Adj. operating income (120) +63.2%

Adj. operating income margin (36)% +710bps

Canada Lawsuit

Philip Morris International (PMI) has recognized an impairment charge of USD 2.3 billion on its subsidiary Rothmans, Benson & Hedges (RBH) due to legal developments in Canada. RBH has objected to a proposed settlement plan to resolve tobacco disputes worth CAD 32.5 billion. Since 2019, RBH-related results such as EPS and net debt have been excluded from PMI's financial reports. If the plan is approved and implemented, RBH is expected to remain deconsolidated, however, under certain conditions, future dividend payments could be made to PMI and increase its cash flow and adjusted EPS.

In about 2 hours we $PM (+0.86%) will present our earnings.

The main points will be:

• How much the strong dollar is weakening the figures
• News on IQOS USA
• ZYN growth

I would like to see sales at 9.8 - 10 billion

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is backing away from its previously proposed tobacco product standard to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes on public health grounds. The FDA argued that menthol increases the appeal of cigarettes, especially to younger audiences. The proposed ban was intended to reduce experimentation and use among youth while improving the health of current menthol cigarette smokers by encouraging smoking cessation.

The withdrawal of this proposal is seen as a positive for tobacco companies who would have faced the loss of a significant market share. In the United States, there are over 18.5 million smokers aged 12 and older who use menthol cigarettes.

The FDA action aimed to address the leading preventable cause of death and disease in the country and reduce tobacco-related deaths and illnesses associated with menthol cigarette use. The agency also hoped to improve health equity by reducing tobacco-related health disparities.

With the proposal now off the table, tobacco companies are likely to be able to continue selling menthol cigarettes without the threat of an imminent ban. This is reflected in the positive share price performance. The market reaction indicates investor relief as a significant regulatory risk for these companies has been removed.

The news is particularly relevant for British American Tobacco $BATS (+1.19%)which, along with its industry peers $MO (+1.62%)
$PM (+0.86%)
$IMB (+1.5%) may now be able to avoid the financial impact that a menthol ban would have had on sales and market share.

Philip Morris $PM (+0.86%) has permission to market 20 ZYN products (2 strengths per 10 flavors).

The FDA's decision sets the stage for further marketing of Reduced Risk Products.

I hope, however, that the FDA will pay close attention to who they give permission to and that the barriers to market entry will remain high.

Anyone else at Comdirect with problems with the dividend from $PM (+0.86%) ? Until now the dividend always came the next day but now it's been 3 days.

$PM (+0.86%) has applied for a new patent, maybe there will be a new product soon.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2025008520