Negative news is piling up again and market sentiment cooled down a little in August:

"Brace for a crash before the golden age of AI." - Financial Times

"Is the AI bubble about to burst - and send the stock market into freefall?" - The Guardian

Some people are thinking:

"The market MUST crash soon! What do I do now? Maybe I'd better sell everything?"

If you hold highly valued individual shares such as $PLTR (+1.4%) such thoughts may quickly rob you of sleep.

(Yes, the bull in the picture has a Palantir logo on his chest and is running towards a cliff 😘)

Others remain calmly on autopilot and continue to save in their ETF portfolio and look forward to opportunities for extra purchases in the crash.

And those who follow strict rules (momentum à la @Epi ) are hardly affected by "doom & gloom" headlines anyway.

The widely known truth is, of course:

🤷‍♂️ Nobody knows what the market will do tomorrow.

👉 But: There are macro signals that in the past have frequently have often flashed before major drawdowns. Not perfectly, not always, but often enough to keep an eye on them.

I have built a TradingView indicator from them:

_____________________

Big Mo's crystal ball 🔮

The glass ball bundles several US macro indicators into a single risk oscillator (0-100), colors the line smooth from green → orange → red and marks "yield curve re-steepen warning window" discreetly in the background.

🤡 I see the indicator more as a "fun experiment" than as a serious tool.

Just take a look, duplicate the code and play around with the numerous settings (see FAQ below).

👉 Link to the indicator:
https://www.tradingview.com/script/EWH6Gvcw-Big-Mo-s-Glaskugel-Macro-Drawdown-Risk-v1-1-2/

📍What's inside? (short & crisp)

• Yield curve 10y-3m (FRED:T10Y3M)

Inversions are well known - my twist: re-steepening (the jump back above 0 after an inversion). This signal has often been the more useful harbinger of stock market stress.

• Credit Spreads (FRED:BAA10Y)

When Baa spreads shoot well above their 12-M average → Risk-On → Risk-Off transition.

• LEI (ECONOMICS:USLEI)

Weak Leading Economic Index (6-month rate) = economic headwind.

• CAPE (Shiller PE, SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH)

High valuation ≠ immediate crash, but increases downside risks.

• VIX spikes (CBOE:VIX)

Sudden spikes in volatility are "boosted" in the score.

⚠️Wichtig:

This is not an oracle or a guarantee of anything.

They are warnings, not commands.

💡Nevertheless:

These are precisely the factors that have made various large declines conspicuous before (dotcom, GFC, 2020 etc.).

⁉️Was do you see on the chart?

• An oscillator (0-100)which shows the combined risk - green = relaxed, orange = be alert, red = high risk.
• Shaded zonesstart when re-stepping and end as soon as the situation is "green" again.
• A compact status panel for the current market status with traffic light labels: Risk Level, Yield Curve, Credit Stress, Economy (LEI), Valuation (CAPE).

Example:

Here I have the first "yield curve re-steepener" in the red⚡HIGH risk zones on the chart of the $SPY (-0.11%) marked.

This shows you where the indicator would have "released" you from the market with today's hindsight bias. 😏

Why not in the 2022 bear market? 🤷‍♂️

• 2022 was an interest rate/valuation bear market, not a credit panic.
• The crystal ball fires red especially when re-steepening after inversion - that came late.
• Spreads: increased, but not crisis-like. LEI turned late. VIX rarely extreme.
• Dynamic scaling relativizes 2022 compared to 2008/2020 → Score remains rather orange.

💬FAQ

What is the crystal ball good for?

To visualize macro risk in a compact form. Not a timing tool for the next 5-minute trade, but a possible early warning radar.

For which market is this optimized?

For the US market. All data sources are US macro series.

No matter which chart you load (stock, ETF, crypto): The data remains US macro. It's best to look at the SPX/SPY. If it collapses, practically everything else goes with it anyway...

I have activated the indicator on stock XY. Why wasn't the crash "predicted" there?

Because the crystal ball measures the macro perspective, not the idiosyncratic risk of an individual stock. Company news can move the stock regardless of the macro picture.

Which timeframe?

Recommendation: 1W (The underlying series come in D/M from FRED/MULTPL anyway).

Is it possible to see the measured values in the panel when hovering a point in time?

Unfortunately not. This is a limitation of Pine Script.

Which settings can I customize?

• Weights of the components (Yield, Credit, LEI, VIX, CAPE)
• Threshold values (inversion duration, re-steepen lookback, credit bps, LEI cutoff, CAPE level, VIX spikes)
• Re-Steepen-Boost (strength & half-life)
• Warning logic (all-clear bar, max. duration, "only shade if not green")
• Scaling & smoothing (EMA length, dynamic scale, yellow/red limits)
• Panel position (and optionally a snapshot time if you want to see fixed historical values)

Is THe FiNaNciAL AdVicE? 😱

No. No recommendation, no guarantee. Use it as context and combine it with your own research & risk management.

With the interest rate cut in the US, capital invested in money market funds (short-term deposits that are paying around 5% in $) is starting to be invested in riskier assets. Investors are moving capital to try to maintain or increase yields, and a large part of this flow may go into shares. Capital in deposits is at an all-time high (7.4 trillion) and part of this could enter the market. In addition, in the medium term, the economy should heat up with the rate cut.

$AMZN (+0.88%)
$GOOG (+1.66%)
$CRM (+1.62%)
$NOVO B (-0.82%)
$NVDA (+1.7%)
$PLTR (+1.4%)
$O (-1.1%)
$IREN (+10.07%)
$ASML (-0.76%)
$VICI (-1.24%)

After my first post on humanoid robots received a lot of positive feedback, I went into more detail. I have subsequently added my favorites in each sector.

Extended analysis of the value chain including shovel manufacturers and potential hidden champions

New categorySecondary key sectors (sales, marketing, financing)

In additionTop 25 companies worldwide, as well as Top 10 Europe and Top 10 Asia

I have also added a video link for beginners. This will give you an idea of how far the development of humanoid robotics has already progressed.

https://www.stern.de/panorama/wissen/humanoider-roboter---wie-reagiert-er-auf-beleidigungen--35996156.html

Thank you for your attention and your support 🙏

🌐 1. value chain of humanoid robots (with hidden champions)

1. research & chip design

$ARM (+1.84%) ARM (UK) - CPU-IP, energy-efficient processors

$SNPS (+1.11%) Synopsys (US) - EDA software, chip design

$CDNS (+0.94%) Cadence (US) - EDA & Simulation

$PTC PTC (US) - Engineering Software, CAD/PLM

$DSY (+0.65%) Dassault Systèmes (FR) - 3D Design & Digital Twin

$SIE (+1.95%) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Software & Lifecycle Mgmt

$ADBE (-0.6%) Adobe (US) - Design, AR/UX

ANSYS (US) - multiphysical simulation - acquisition by Synopsis

Altair (US) - CAE, simulation, digital twin - acquisition by Siemens

$HXGBY (+1.6%)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology & Simulation

$AWE (-1.65%) Alphawave IP Group (UK) - High-speed chip IP for AI/robotics

1.Synopsis, 2.Siemens and 3.Adobe are my top 3 in this sector

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (-0.76%) ASML (NL) - Lithography (EUV)

$AMAT (+0.6%) Applied Materials (US) - Semiconductor equipment

$8035 (+1.63%) Tokyo Electron (JP) - wafer fabrication

$KEYS (+0.25%) Keysight Technologies (US) - Metrology

$6857 (+2.84%) Advantest (JP) - Chip test systems

$TER (+0.38%) Teradyne (US) - test systems + cobots

$6954 (-0.94%) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$CAT (-3.08%) Caterpillar (US) - autonomous machines

$KU2G KUKA (DE) - industrial robots

Comau (IT) - automation - not listed on the stock exchange

$ROK Rockwell Automation (US) - industrial automation

$JBL (+1.23%) Jabil (US) - contract manufacturing (EMS/ODM)

$KIT (+1.4%) Kitron (NO) - European EMS/ODM manufacturer

$AIXA (+0.19%) Aixtron (DE) - deposition equipment for compound semiconductors

$LRCX (-0.15%)
Lam Research (US) - Etch/deposition systems

$MKSI (+1.37%)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

$ASM (+4.07%)
ASM International (NL) - Deposition systems

1.ASML, 2.Keysight Technologies, 3.Fanuc are my top 3 in this sector

3. chip manufacturing (foundries)

$TSM (+0.99%) TSMC (TW) - leading foundry

$005930 Samsung Electronics (KR) - foundry + memory

$GFS (-1.48%) GlobalFoundries (US) - specialty chips

$INTC (+0.19%)
Intel Foundry Services (US) - new western foundry player

$981
SMIC (CN) - largest Chinese foundry

$UMC
UMC (TW) - Power/RF/Embedded chips

1.TSMC, 2.Intel, 3.Samsung Electronics are my top 3 in this sector

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (+1.7%) Nvidia (US) - GPUs, AI chips

$INTC (+0.19%) Intel (US) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (+2.2%) AMD (US) - CPUs, GPUs

$MRVL (-4.35%) Marvell (US) - network chips

$MU (+3.96%) Micron (US) - Memory

$DELL (-2.3%) Dell Technologies (US) - Edge & Infrastructure

Graphcore (UK) - AI chips (IPU) - not a listed company

Cerebras (US) - Wafer-scale engine - not a listed company

SiPearl (FR) - European HPC chip - not a listed company

1.Nvidia, 2.Marvell, 3.Micron are my top 3 in this sector

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (+0.98%) Sony (JP) - image sensors

$6861 (+0.65%) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors

$STM (+0.85%) STMicroelectronics (FR/IT) - Sensors, MCUs

$TDY Teledyne (US) - optical/infrared sensors

$CGNX (-0.29%) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision

$HON (-0.12%) Honeywell (US) - sensor technology, security

ANYbotics (CH) - autonomous sensor fusion - not a listed company

$OUST
Velodyne Lidar (US) - Lidar sensors - takeover by Ouster

$AMS (+0.47%)
-OSRAM (AT/DE) - optical sensors

1.Teledyne, 2.Keyence, 3.Ouster are my top 3 in this sector

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (+1.41%) Infineon (DE) - Power Electronics

$ON (-1.27%) onsemi (US) - Power & Sensors

$TXN (-0.46%) Texas Instruments (US) - Mixed-Signal Chips

$ADI (-0.94%) Analog Devices (US) - Signal Processing

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - Hydraulics/Pneumatics

$MP (+3.95%) MP Materials (US) - Magnets

$APH (+1.65%) Amphenol (US) - Connectors

$6481 (+0.43%) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

$6324 (-4.4%)
Harmonic Drive (JP) - Precision gears & servo drives for robotics

$6594 (+0.04%)
Nidec (JP) - Electric motors

$6506 (-0.09%)
Yaskawa (JP) - Drives & Robotics

$SU (+1.75%)
Schneider Electric (FR) - Energy & control solutions

$ZIL2 (+0.21%)
ElringKlinger (DE) - Battery & fuel cell technology, lightweight construction

1.Parker-Hannifin, 2.MP Materials, 3.Infinion are my top 3 in this sector

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (-0.01%) Qualcomm (US) - mobile communications, edge AI

$ANET (+3.47%) Arista Networks (US) - Networks

$CSCO (+1%) Cisco (US) - Networks, Security

$EQIX (-0.72%) Equinix (US) - Data centers

NTT Docomo (JP) - 5G/6G carrier - not a listed company

$VZ Verizon (US) - Telecommunications

$SFTBY SoftBank (JP) - Carrier + Robotics

$ERIC B (-0.28%)
Ericsson (SE) - 5G/IoT infrastructure

$NOKIA (+0.35%)
Nokia (FI) - 5G/6G for industry

$HPE (+1.03%)
Juniper Networks (US) - Network technology - acquisition by HP

1.Arista Networks, 2.SoftBank, 3.Cisco are my top 3 in this sector

8. energy supply

$3750 (-1.54%) CATL (CN) - Batteries

$6752 (-1.09%) Panasonic (JP) - Batteries

$373220 LG Energy (KR) - Batteries

$ALB (-3.1%) Albemarle (US) - Lithium

$LYC (-0.67%) Lynas (AU) - Rare earths

$UMICY (-1.23%) Umicore (BE) - recycling

WiTricity (US) - inductive charging - not a listed company

$ABBN (+0.09%) Charging (CH) - charging infrastructure

$SLDP
Solid Power (US) - Solid state batteries

Northvolt (SE) - European batteries - not a listed company

$PLUG
Plug Power (US) - fuel cells

1.Albemarle, 2.CATL, 3.Panasonic are my top 3 in this sector

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (+0.88%) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud, AI

$MSFT (+0.32%) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI

$GOOG (+1.66%) Alphabet Google Cloud (US) - Cloud, ML

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data center infrastructure (UPS, cooling, edge)

$ORCL (+2.24%)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP + Cloud

$IBM (-0.01%)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid cloud + AI

$OVH (+0.24%)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

1.Alphabet, 2.Microsoft, 3.Oracle are my top 3 in this sector

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (+1.4%) Palantir (US) - Data integration

$DDOG (+4.72%) Datadog (US) - Monitoring

$SNOW (+6.73%) Snowflake (US) - Data Cloud

$ORCL (+2.24%) Oracle (US) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (+0.01%) SAP (DE) - ERP systems

$SPGI S&P Global (US) - financial/market data

ROS2 Foundation - robotics middleware - not listed on the stock exchange

$NVDA (+1.7%) NVIDIA Isaac (US) - robotics development - part of Nvidia

$INOD (+1.34%) Innodata (US) - data annotation & AI training data

$PATH (+1.36%)
UiPath (RO/US) - Robotic process automation

$AI (+1.09%)
C3.ai (US) - AI platform

$ESTC (+22.3%)
(NL/US) - Search & data analysis

1.S&P Global, 2.Palantir, 3.Datadog are my top 3 in this sector

11. end applications / robots

$ABB ABB (CH/SE) - Industrial Robots

$6954 (-0.94%) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots

$TSLA (-0.85%) Tesla Optimus (US) - humanoid robot

$9618 (-1.86%) JD.com (CN) - logistics robot

$AAPL (+0.15%) Apple (US) - Platform & UX

$700 (+0.72%) Tencent (CN) - Platform & AI

$9988 (-2.54%) Alibaba (CN) - logistics & platform

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

$TER (+0.38%) Universal Robots (DK) - cobots - belongs to the Teradyne Corporation

Engineered Arts (UK) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

$ISRG (-0.51%) Intuitive Surgical (US) - surgical robotics

$GMED (-1.42%)
Globus Medical (US) - surgical robotics (ExcelsiusGPS platform)

$7012 (+1.52%) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots, automation

$CPNG (+0.64%) Coupang (KR) - Logistics end user

$IRBT (-2.22%)
iRobot (US) - consumer robotics (e.g. Roomba), non-humanoid, but navigation/sensor fusion

Boston Dynamics (US) - humanoid & mobile robots-no listed company

Hanson Robotics (HK) - humanoid robots (Sophia) - not a listed company

Agility Robotics (US) - humanoid robot "Digit" - not a listed company

1.Apple, 2.Tencent, 3.Alibaba are my top 3 in this sector

🛠 2. cross enablers (shovel manufacturers) - with hidden champions

Raw materials & battery materials

Albemarle - Lynas - Umicore

$SQM
SQM (CL) - Lithium

$ILU (-1.59%)
Iluka Resources (AU) - Rare earths

$ARR (-6.18%)
American Rare Earths (US/AU) - New supply chains

my number 1 in the sector is Albemarle

manufacturing technology

ASML - Applied Materials - Tokyo Electron

$LRCX (-0.15%)
Lam Research (US) - Plasma/etching processes

$ASM (+4.07%)
ASM International (NL) - ALD equipment

$MKSI (+1.37%)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Quality assurance

Keysight - Advantest - Teradyne

$EMR (+0.52%)
National Instruments (US) - Measurement technology - from Emerson Electric adopted

$300567
ATE Test Systems (CN) - test systems

$FORM (+0.4%)
FormFactor (US) - Wafer probing

my number 1 in the sector is Keysight

Motion & Drive

Parker-Hannifin

Festo (DE) - Pneumatics, Soft Robotics - not a listed company

Bosch Rexroth (DE) - Drives, Controls - not a listed company

$6481 (+0.43%)
THK (JP) - Linear guides

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Sensors/Imaging

$TDY Teledyne

$BSL (+6.53%) Basler (DE) - Industrial cameras

FLIR (US) - Thermal imaging sensors - acquisition by Teledyne

ISRA Vision (DE) - Machine Vision - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Teledyne

Magnets & Materials

MP Materials

$6501 (+2.22%)
Hitachi Metals (JP) - Magnetic materials

VacuumSchmelze (DE) - Magnetic materials - not a listed company

$4063 (+0.21%)
Shin-Etsu Chemical (JP) - Specialty materials

my number 1 in the sector is MP Materials

Chip Design & Simulation

Synopsys - Cadence - ARM

$SIE (+1.95%)
Siemens EDA (DE/US)-Mentor Graphics-strategic business unit of Siemens AG

Imagination Tech (UK) - GPU-IP - not a listed company

$CEVA (+1.03%)
CEVA (IL) - Signal Processor IP

my number 1 in the sector is Synopsys

Engineering & Lifecycle

PTC - Dassault - Siemens

Altair (US) - Simulation - no longer a listed company

$HXGBY (+1.6%)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology

$SNPS (+1.11%)
ANSYS (US) - Simulation - takeover by Synopsys

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Networks & Data Centers

Arista - Cisco - Equinix

$HPE (+1.03%)
Juniper (US) - Networks - Acquisition of HPE

$DTE (-0.55%)
T-Systems (DE) - Industry cloud

$OVH (+0.24%)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Arista

Cloud infrastructure

AWS - Azure - Google Cloud

$ORCL (+2.24%)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP & databases

$IBM (-0.01%)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid Cloud

$9988 (-2.54%)
Alibaba Cloud (CN) - Asian Cloud

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Cloud/Infra

my number 1 in the sector is Alphabet (Google)

finance/information infra

S&P Global

$MCO (-0.49%)
Moody's (US) - Ratings

$MSCI (-0.57%)
MSCI (US) - Indices

$MORN
Morningstar (US) - Investment Research

my number 1 in the sector is S&P Global

Creative/Experience Infra

Adobe

$ADSK (+10.27%)
Autodesk (US) - CAD & Design

$U
Unity (US) - 3D/AR simulation

Epic Games (US) - Unreal Engine - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Adobe

Platform & Ecosystem

Apple - Tencent - Alibaba

$META (+0.03%)
Meta (US) - AR/VR, Social Robotics

ByteDance (CN) - AI & platforms - not a listed company

$9888 (+0.76%)
Baidu (CN) - AI & Cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Tencent

Infrastructure/Edge

Dell

$HPE (+1.03%)
HPE (US) - Edge Computing

$SMCI
Supermicro (US) - AI servers

$6702 (-2.27%)
Fujitsu (JP) - Edge & HPC

my number 1 in the sector is Dell

storage solutions

Micron

$000660
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$285A (+2.47%)
Kioxia (JP) - NAND

$WDC
Western Digital (US) - Storage solutions

my number 1 in the sector is Micron

🏛 3. secondary key sectors with hidden champions

Financing & Capital

$GS (-0.21%) Goldman Sachs (US) - investment bank; ECM/DCM, M&A, growth financing

$MS Morgan Stanley (US) - investment bank; tech banking, capital markets

$BLK (-0.63%) BlackRock (US) - asset manager; capital allocation, ETFs/index funds

$9984 (+4.62%) SoftBank Vision Fund (JP) - mega VC; growth equity in robotics/AI

Sequoia Capital (US) - venture capital; early/growth in AI/robotics - this is a classic venture capital fund

DARPA (US) - government R&D funding (robotics/defense) - independent research and development agency

EU Horizon (EU) - research funding/grants for DeepTech - Innovative Europe pillar

China State Funds (CN) - state industry/technology fund

Lux Capital (US) - VC for DeepTech - Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance

DCVC (US) - Robotics & AI focus - investing exclusively via VC fund investments

Speedinvest (AT) - EU VC for robotics - access to investment only via fund investments

my number 1 in the sector is Goldman Sachs

Maintenance & Service

$SIE (+1.95%) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Service, Lifecycle & Retrofit

$ABBN (+0.09%) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics Service, Spare Parts, Field Support

$GEHC (-1.28%) GE Healthcare (US) - Medtech service incl. robotic systems

Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance - not a listed company

Augury (US/IL) - condition monitoring, condition diagnostics - not a listed company

$KU2 KUKA Service (DE) - Robotics maintenance

$6954 (-0.94%) Fanuc Service (JP) - global service network

Boston Dynamics AI Institute (US) - Robotics longevity - funded by Hyundai Motor Group

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Marketing & Advertising

$WPP (-0.22%) WPP (UK) - global advertising group; branding/communications

$OMC Omnicom (US) - marketing/PR network

$PUB (+0.32%) Publicis (FR) - communications/advertising group

$META (+0.03%) Meta (US) - Digital Ads (Facebook/Instagram)

$GOOG (+1.66%) Google Ads (US) - search & display advertising

TikTok / ByteDance (CN) - social ads & distribution - not a listed company

$AAPL (+0.15%) Apple (US) - Branding/UX; Acceptance & Platform Marketing

$WPP (-0.22%)
AKQA (UK/US) - Tech branding - Since 2012 majority owned by the WPP Groupbut continues to operate as an autonomous operating unit

R/GA (US) - Innovation marketing - not a listed company

Serviceplan (DE) - largest independent EU agency - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Meta

Law, Regulation & Ethics

ISO (CH) - international standards, robotics standards

TÜV (DE) - certification & safety tests

UL (US) - safety/conformity testing

EU AI Act (EU) - legal framework for AI & robotics

UNESCO AI Ethics (UN) - global ethics guidelines

Fraunhofer IPA (DE) - Robotics safety standards

ANSI (US) - standards

IEC (CH) - Electrical engineering standards

Training & Talent

MIT (US) - Robotics/AI Research & Education

ETH Zurich (CH) - autonomous systems & robotics

Stanford (US) - AI/Robotics labs & spin-offs

Tsinghua University (CN) - Robotics/AI in Asia

CMU (US) - Robotics Institute

EPFL (CH) - Robotics research

TU Munich (DE) - humanoid robot "Roboy"

🌍 Top 25 companies for humanoid robotics

These companies are central to the development & production of humanoid robotsbecause without them, crucial parts of the chain would be missing:

Chips & computing power (brain of the robots)

$NVDA (+1.7%) Nvidia (US) - AI GPUs & Isaac platform, foundation for robotic AI

$2330 TSMC (TW) - world's most important foundry, produces the AI chips

$ASML (-0.76%) ASML (NL) - EUV lithography, indispensable for chip production

$005930 Samsung Electronics (KR) - memory, logic, foundry

$000660 SK Hynix (KR) - DRAM & NAND memory for AI

$MU (+3.96%) Micron (US) - Memory solutions for AI workloads

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Sensors & perception (senses of robots)

$SONY Sony (JP) - image sensors, market leader

$6861 (+0.65%) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors & vision systems

$CGNX (-0.29%) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision, precise image processing

my number 1 in the sector is Keyence

Actuators & motion (muscles of robots)

$IFX (+1.41%) Infineon (DE) - power electronics, motor control

$6594 (+0.04%) Nidec (JP) - World market leader for electric motors

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - hydraulics/pneumatics, motion technology

$6481 (+0.43%) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Communication, cloud & infrastructure (nerves & data flow)

$QCOM (-0.01%) Qualcomm (US) - Mobile & Edge Chips

$AMZN (+0.88%) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud & AI infrastructure

$MSFT (+0.32%) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI services

$CSCO (+1%) Cisco (US) - Networks & Security

$VRT Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data Center Infrastructure

my number 1 in the sector is Microsoft

End Applications & Platforms (robots themselves)

$TSLA (-0.85%) Tesla (US) - humanoid robot Optimus

$ABBN (+0.09%) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics & Automation

$6954 (-0.94%) Fanuc (JP) - industrial robots & CNC systems

$7012 (+1.52%) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo) - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

Universal Robots (DK) - cobots

my number 1 in the sector is Tesla

🇪🇺 Top 10 European key companies for humanoid robotics

$ASML (-0.76%)
ASML (NL)

World market leader in EUV lithography - no modern chips for AI & robotics without ASML.

$IFX (+1.41%) Infineon (DE)

Leading in power electronics & motor control - crucial for actuators of humanoid robots.

$STM (+0.85%)
STMicroelectronics (FR/IT)

Sensors, microcontrollers & power chips - the basis for control & perception.

$SAP (+0.01%)
SAP (DE)

ERP & data platforms, important for integrating humanoid robots into industrial processes.

$SIE (+1.95%)
Siemens (DE)

Industrial software, automation, digital twin - key for engineering & lifecycle management.

$KU2 KUKA (EN)

Robotics pioneer, industrial robots & automation - know-how for humanoid motion mechanics.

PAL Robotics (ES) - not a listed company

Specialist for humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo), internationally used in research & service.

Neura Robotics (DE) - Not a listed company

Young high-tech company, develops cognitive humanoid robots with advanced AI (4NE-1).

Universal Robots (DK) - Not a listed company

Market leader for cobots - platform for safe human-robot collaboration.

Engineered Arts (UK) - not a listed company

Develops humanoid robots such as Amecaknown for realistic facial expressions & gestures - important for HRI (Human-Robot Interaction)

🌏 Top 10 Asian key companies for humanoid robotics

$2330
TSMC (Taiwan)

World's largest semiconductor foundry, produces high-end chips (e.g. Nvidia, AMD, Apple) - no AI hardware without TSMC.

$005930
Samsung Electronics (South Korea)

Foundry, memory, logic chips, image sensors - extremely broadly positioned in robotics components.

$000660
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$SONY
Sony (Japan)

Market leader in CMOS image sensors, essential for robotic vision & perception.

$6861 (+0.65%)
Keyence (Japan)

Sensor technology & machine vision for industrial automation, widely used in robotics.

$6954 (-0.94%)
Fanuc (Japan)

Industrial robots & CNC systems, one of the most important manufacturers of robotics hardware worldwide.

$6506 (-0.09%)
Yaskawa Electric (Japan)

Drives, motion control & robot arms - relevant for humanoid motion control.

$6594 (+0.04%)
Nidec (Japan)

World market leader for electric motors (from mini motors to high-performance drives).

$7012 (+1.52%)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - Industrial robots

$9618 (-1.86%)
JD.com (China)

Driver for robotics in e-commerce & logistics, invests in humanoid robotics applications

Subscribe to the podcast to make buying dip worthwhile.

00:00:00 Market environment & FED

00:25:00 Novo Nordisk & Viking Therapeutics $NVO (-0.72%)
$VKTX (+3.29%)

00:45:00 BYD $1211 (-2.29%)

01:18:30 BHP Group $BHP (+0.34%)

01:39:30 Rio Tinto $RIO (+0.76%)
$RIO (+0.33%)

01:49:15 Palantir & Data Protection $PLTR (+1.4%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0jDbLBebz6PuMalm2BAB79?si=q1TLdAP9RHiDVdse_LR9tQ

YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kg9xD1t0NzE

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/108-byd-novo-nordisk-palantir-bhp-rio-tinto/id1695869891?i=1000723350120

The possibility that we are currently in an AI bubble is real. As with previous hypes, the valuation of AI companies seems to be ahead of their actual profitability. Moreover, the S&P 500 is heavily overconcentrated in a handful of large tech players that are benefiting from the AI hype. Should these fall, the entire index will be pulled down with them.

That risk is compounded by the fact that the S&P has become historically expensive, with P/E ratios well above average. The risks are clear: if promised growth fails to materialize, valuations could collapse hard. The situation is reminiscent of the dot.com bubble of the early 2000s, but with an important difference: now, a lot of credit is being borrowed to finance AI growth. That makes a blow more dangerous, because debt puts extra pressure in a downturn.

Conclusion: AI could change the world permanently, but current valuations seem fragile. A bubble need not mean AI disappears, it does mean investors should prepare for sharp corrections.

$NVDA (+1.7%)
$MSFT (+0.32%)
$AMZN (+0.88%)
$GOOGL (+1.76%)
$META (+0.03%)
$AVGO (+3.6%)
$TSM (+0.99%)
$ORCL (+2.24%)
$PLTR (+1.4%)
$ADBE (-0.6%)
$AMD (+2.2%)
$AAPL (+0.15%)
$IBM (-0.01%)
$QCOM (-0.01%)
$MU (+3.96%)
$SNOW (+6.73%)
$CRM (+1.62%)
$MDB (+6.82%)
$AI (+1.09%)
$VOO (+0.04%)

A small position in $ONDS (+13.24%) as this high-tech company is active in the drone sector and will play an important role in the future, particularly in the area of defense and public safety.

Ondas also bases its innovative strength on strong partnerships: for example, the AI and data analysis platform from $PLTR (+1.4%) is being integrated into the systems to increase efficiency and scalability.

Despite the already strong share price gains, the potential remains enormous: geopolitical tensions, the booming demand for security solutions and the company's technological leadership give it a strong tailwind.

First dip your little toe in the water. If there are further setbacks, the next tranche of 5 shares will follow.

The target is around 20 shares, possibly more.

The hype is all about humanoid robots, but the constant winners are in the background.

I have divided the analysis into two perspectives. 1. the complete value chain of humanoid robots, which shows all the players from the chip to the finished robot, and 2. the blade manufacturers in the background, who always earn money as enablers, regardless of which manufacturer wins the race.

ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron dominate in manufacturing technology. Quality assurance comes from Keysight, Advantest and Teradyne. Chip design is supported by Synopsys, Cadence and ARM. Data streams are secured by Arista Networks, Cisco and Equinix. The computing basis is created in the cloud by Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. Albemarle, Lynas and Umicore play a central role in raw materials and battery materials. These companies monetize their customers' investment waves, have high barriers to entry, service revenues and pricing power, but remain cyclical with risks from export rules, capex cuts and currency movements.

🌐 Value chain of humanoid robots Sector overview

1. research & chip design (IP / EDA)

$ARM (+1.84%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures

$SNPS (+1.11%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - Chip design software

$CDNS (+0.94%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - EDA & Simulation

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (-0.76%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography, key monopoly

$AMAT (+0.6%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Process equipment

$8035 (+1.63%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Wafer equipment

$KEYS (+0.25%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Test & RF measurement technology

$6857 (+2.84%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test systems

$TER (+0.38%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + robotics (Universal Robots)

3. chip production (Foundries)

$TSM (+0.99%)
TSMC (TSM, TW) - Largest contract manufacturer

$005930
Samsung Electronics (005930.KQ, KR) - Memory + Foundry

$GFS (-1.48%)
GlobalFoundries (GFS, USA) - Specialized production

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (+1.7%)
Nvidia (NVDA, USA) - GPUs, AI accelerators

$INTC (+0.19%)
Intel (INTC, USA) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (+2.2%)
AMD (AMD, USA) - CPUs/GPUs

$MRVL (-4.35%)
Marvell Technology (MRVL, USA) - Network/data center chips

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (+0.98%)
Sony (6758.T, JP) - CMOS image sensors

$6861 (+0.65%)
Keyence (6861.T, JP) - Vision systems, sensors

$STM (+0.85%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - MEMS sensors

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (+1.41%)
Infineon (IFX, DE) - Power semiconductors, SiC

$ON (-1.27%)
N Semiconductor (ON, USA) - SiC/Power Chips

$STM (+0.85%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - Motor control & power

$TXN (-0.46%)
Texas Instruments (TXN, USA) - Motor control, power ICs

$ADI (-0.94%)
Analog Devices (ADI, USA) - Energy & BMS chips

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (-0.01%)
Qualcomm (QCOM, USA) - 5G/SoCs

$AVGO (+3.6%)
Broadcom (AVGO, USA) - Network & radio chips

$SWKS (-1.82%)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, USA) - RF components

8. energy supply

$300750
CATL (300750.SZ, CN) - Batteries

$6752 (-1.09%)
Panasonic (6752.T, JP) - Batteries for automotive/robotics

$373220
LG Energy Solution (373220.KQ, KR) - Batteries

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (+0.88%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS

$MSFT (+0.32%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure

$GOOG (+1.66%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud

$EQIX (-0.72%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data center operator

$ANET (+3.47%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - Network infrastructure

$CSCO (+1%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Edge & Data Center Networks

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (+1.4%)
Palantir (PLTR, USA) - Data integration, decision software

$DDOG (+4.72%)
Datadog (DDOG, USA) - Cloud monitoring / observability

$SNOW (+6.73%)
Snowflake (SNOW, USA) - Cloud-native data platform

$ORCL (+2.24%)
Oracle (ORCL, USA) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (+0.01%)
SAP (SAP, DE) - ERP/cloud systems

$PATH (+1.36%)
UiPath (PATH, USA) - Automation software (RPA)

$AI (+1.09%)
C3.ai (AI, USA) - Enterprise AI platform

11. end applications / robots

$ABB
ABB (ABB, CH) - Industrial robots

$6954 (-0.94%)
Fanuc (6954.T, JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$TSLA (-0.85%)
Tesla (TSLA, USA) - Optimus" humanoid robot

$9618 (-1.86%)
JD.com (JD, CN) - E-commerce & automated logistics

🛠️ Shovel manufacturer for humanoid robots

🔹 Hardtech (physical "shovels")

These companies provide the material basis: manufacturing machines, raw materials, semiconductor base.

Semiconductor Equipment & Manufacturing

$ASML (-0.76%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography (monopoly).

$AMAT (+0.6%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Wafer equipment.

$8035 (+1.63%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Process equipment.

Test systems (hardware-side)

$6857 (+2.84%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test.

$TER (+0.38%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + industrial robots.

Materials & raw materials

$ALB (-3.1%)
Albemarle (ALB, USA) - Lithium (batteries).

$LYC (-0.67%)
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX, AUS) - Rare earths for magnets.

$UMICY (-1.23%)
Umicore (UMI.BR, BE) - Cathode materials, recycling.

🔹 Soft/infra (digital "shovels")

These companies supply the infrastructure & toolswithout which development, training and operation would be impossible.

Design Software & IP

$SNPS (+1.11%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - EDA software.

$CDNS (+0.94%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - Chip design & simulation.

$ARM (+1.84%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures (license model).

Test & Measurement (software/signal level)

$KEYS (+0.25%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Electronics & RF test systems.

Network & data center backbone

$ANET (+3.47%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - High-speed networks.

$CSCO (+1%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Data center/edge networks.

$EQIX (-0.72%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data centers (colocation).

Cloud infrastructure

$AMZN (+0.88%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS (cloud, AI training).

$MSFT (+0.32%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure.

$GOOG (+1.66%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud.

Takeaway: Investing in the infrastructure stack allows you to participate in the robotics trend regardless of the subsequent product winner and reduces the individual product risk, but you have to live with cycles. In your opinion, which stage of the chain offers the best risk/return combination and fits into a disciplined portfolio?

Source: Own analysis based on publicly available company information and IR materials of the companies mentioned.

Image material: Techa Tungateja/iStockphoto