Further increased my position. $MDLZ (-1.01%)

$MDLZ (-1.01%) - Mondelez

$MDLZ (-1.01%) announced a $9 billion share repurchase authorization, effective January 1, 2025, replacing the current $6 billion program (with ~$2.8 billion remaining). The program will run until December 2027.

$MDLZ (-1.01%) also announced a quarterly dividend of USD 0.47 per share, payable on January 14, 2025.

Had a craving for chocolate - despite the Advent calendar! I found the small price slide towards 60 euros just too tempting. 😎

Battle for the bean - High costs and their consequences: How Nestlé, Hershey & Co. fight

Last year was a challenge for the food and consumer goods industry like never before. The sharp rise in input costs - particularly for raw materials such as cocoa, sugar and milk - hit even industry giants such as $NESN (-0.19%), $MDLZ (-1.01%)

$HSY (+0.03%) and
Meiji ($2269) (-1.29%) - Asia's largest chocolate producer from Japan - were hit hard. These companies have had to deal with exploding costs that have put massive pressure on both margins and share prices. At the same time, they have developed various strategies to counter this pressure - with mixed success, as their latest quarterly reports show.

A look at the past year

2024 was characterized by exceptionally high commodity prices. Cocoa reached record highs. Due to droughts and weather disasters, the price of a tonne of beans doubled to around 8,700 euros. And transportation costs also rose due to global supply chain problems. These developments were directly reflected in the margins.

At #hershey for example, the gross margin fell by 3.6 percentage points in the third quarter of 2024, despite significant price adjustments. Nestlé fared similarly, with its operating margin shrinking to around 17%, which is below previous peak values.

Meiji, achieved sales growth of 4.2% in the first half of 2024, but operating profit in the food segment fell by 6.9%.

Attempts to curb costs

The companies have responded to the challenges with various measures:

Price adjustments

• Nestlé implemented price adjustments of 1.6% in the first nine months of 2024. However, these were not enough to compensate for the increase in input costs.
• Mondelēz increased prices by 5.1% in the third quarter of 2024. While this supported sales growth of 5.4%, the success was largely based on the price increases and not on increased sales volumes.
• Hershey was able to stabilize in the short term with price adjustments, but recorded a 1.4% decline in sales in the third quarter of 2024.

Efficiency gains

• Nestlé and Hershey invested in automation and digital transformation to reduce costs in the long term.
• Meiji implemented optimizations in production and focused on higher-margin products.

Portfolio optimization

• Mondelēz expanded its portfolio in high-margin segments, which contributed to an improvement in the gross margin. It acquired the Chinese cookie manufacturer Evirth in order to gain a foothold in the Asian market.
• Meiji restructured its sales organization in Asia to focus on profitable markets.

Despite these efforts, most companies were only able to partially offset the increased costs. Consumers react sensitively to price adjustments, and inflation puts additional pressure on purchasing power. This limits the scope for further price increases.

Analysis: Which shares are still worth buying?

Despite the challenges, there are differences between the four companies that are crucial for investors. In order to make the best choice, we look at the most important key figures such as dividend growth, valuation and undervaluation.

On 'getquin' I asked the community, Which chocolate stock is your favorite?

More than a third chose Mondelez.

Let's take a look at the most important fundamental data. Basically, all valuations look very good right now. But as investors, we now want to separate the wheat from the chaff - or the beans from the fruit.

Valuation of the shares

Meiji Holdings: Strong growth, but expensive

Meiji boasts impressive dividend growth of 15.39% over the last ten years - a top figure in this comparison. The last five years have also been positive at 6.00%. However, the pace could slow down, as the estimated dividend increases are now only 4.21%.

One catch is the valuation: with an adjusted price/earnings ratio (P/E) of 23.6, Meiji is rather expensive compared to its competitors. The moderate undervaluation (-16%) leaves room for price fantasies. Meiji remains an interesting option for long-term dividend hunters.

Mondelēz: The balanced choice

Mondelēz presents itself as the all-rounder in this comparison. With an adjusted P/E ratio of 17.6, the share is fairly valued. In addition, there is reliable dividend growth of 11.95% over ten years and estimated increases of 9.26%. The moderate undervaluation (-15%) also suggests further potential.

This makes Mondelēz the ideal choice for investors looking for a mix of stability, growth and a fair valuation.

Nestlé: plenty of upside potential, but low growth

Nestlé impresses with an undervaluation of -28.4% - the highest discount in the comparison. However, growth leaves a lot to be desired: dividend increases are a meagre 3.57% (ten years) and an estimated 2.37%.

One plus point is the favorable adjusted P/E ratio of 15.7. Anyone looking for stability and not expecting rapid increases could hope for a good recovery from Nestlé. However, this may take time.

The Hershey Company: High growth rates, high price

Hershey impresses with estimated dividend growth of 17.94 % - the clear frontrunner. The last five years were also strong at 13.59 %. However, this comes at a price: an adjusted P/E ratio of 19.6 and an undervaluation of only -13.7% make the share more expensive than Nestlé or Mondelēz and therefore not a bargain choice.

Long-term investors might still like Hershey - especially because of the high dividend increases.

Mondelēz ahead

Of the four stocks, in our opinion Mondelēz currently offers the best combination of dividend growth, fair valuation and potential. Nestlé is a solid defensive alternative, while Hershey and Meiji remain exciting for growth-oriented dividend hunters. The decision ultimately depends on your investment horizon - but for a balanced overall package, Mondelēz is the most attractive investment idea of the four. No investment advice.

No investment advice. Follow with pleasure Instagram. More on https://www.dividenden-rechner.de/aktien-analysen/teurer-kakao

Coffee is the world's second most traded commodity after oil

100 million people live from coffee and for many countries it is the most important source of income. Be it through the cultivation, processing or distribution of coffee.

Coffee. The black gold of the 21st century. A market that sounds so boring. And at the same time growing so strongly.

And yet, in contrast to oil stocks, coffee stocks can hardly benefit.

$MDLZ (-1.01%)
$NSRGY (-0.25%)
$SBUX (-1.55%)

The coffee plant has powerful enemies in the wild. Mealybugs, borer beetles, leaf blight and tree cancer can destroy entire plantations in a very short time. Due to the changing global climate, the plants must also become more robust - heat, heavy rain and drought in rapid succession would quickly put an end to the traditional coffee varieties. Thanks to the acquisition of Monsanto, Bayer is able to meet this challenge on many levels.

$BAYN (+0.17%)

Many specialty coffees are already treated with aromas in advance. This makes it possible to give a natural product, which is subject to fluctuations in taste due to climate and origin, a consistent quality.

The absolute top dog among flavor manufacturers, with a market share of 20%, comes from Switzerland and is called Givaudan. The German manufacturer Symrise is in 4th place with a market share of around 12%.

$SY1 (-0.34%)
$GIVN (+0.3%)

De'Longhi machines are particularly popular due to their high reliability and attractive appearance. The simpler models start at around EUR 100 and are fed with Nespresso capsules from Nestlé.

The high-end machines have a grinder that freshly grinds the roasted beans and turns them into "espresso" or "Americano" at high pressure.

$DLG (+1.37%)
$PHIA (-0.25%)

https://fitneo.de/kaffee/

$MDLZ (-1.01%) Stability is clearly recognizable here 💪

Strong figures🚀

Forecasts exceeded 🚀

Do you have Mondelez in your portfolio?

Mondelez International beat Wall Street sales expectations for the third quarter on Tuesday, as the Cadbury parent's efforts to offer its products at different price points led to a sequential improvement in sales volume.

The company reported net sales of $9.20 billion for the quarter, compared with analysts' average estimates of $9.11 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG

$MDLZ (-1.01%) Stability is clearly recognizable here 💪

Strong figures🚀

Forecasts exceeded 🚀

Do you have Mondelez in your portfolio?

Mondelez International beat Wall Street sales expectations for the third quarter on Tuesday, as the Cadbury parent's efforts to offer its products at different price points led to a sequential improvement in sales volume.

The company reported net sales of $9.20 billion for the quarter, compared with analysts' average estimates of $9.11 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Aftermarket after quarterly figures

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+0% Mondelez $MDLZ (-1.01%)

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