$MRK (+0.44%)
@Memo0606

Merck shares have been through a long dry spell. Just over a year ago, the share price stood at around 134 US dollars. The share is now only worth around 80 US dollars. Is the turnaround coming now?

Merck shares fall from 134 to 80 US dollars, turnaround?

Enlicitide significantly lowers LDL cholesterol, good tolerability.

P/E ratio of 10, dividend over 4%, share a bargain.

Merck has reached an important milestone with its drug Enlicitide Decanoate, which is currently in development, in two late-stage clinical trials. As the US pharmaceutical company announced on Monday, the drug was able to achieve its main objective - a significant reduction in LDL cholesterol - in both trials.

The orally administered drug is aimed at hyperlipidemia, a lipid metabolism disorder in which excessive amounts of fats accumulate in the blood vessels. The focus is particularly on LDL cholesterol, also known as "bad cholesterol", which is considered a risk factor for cardiovascular disease

Enlicitide was tested on patients with existing heart disease or an increased risk of heart disease. Merck speaks of a "significant" and "clinically relevant" reduction in LDL levels compared to previous standard therapies.

The research results could represent a turning point for the share price.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/19446156-pille-spritze-gamechanger-enlicitid-abwaertstrend-merck-endlich-gestoppt

Dear people

I have dealt with $ORLY (+0.24%) dealt with

also about Tradingview

in my opinion strongly overvalued, kgv historically also very high

currently well above the 200 week linesee my chart

what is your opinion?

according to investing but fairly valued

I would sell and use the cash $NOVO B (-1.82%)
$MRK (+0.44%)
$PEP (+0.12%) and $ATCO B (-1.29%) buy more

As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Today there are a few more details on the indicators from part 3 https://getqu.in/9XGYtO/

As described in part 3, I start my analysis with the SMA 200 / 50 / 5 daysto get an overview of the trend.

Example $UBER (-0.19%)

For me, an important setting for the SMA is that I always use the SMA regardless of my chart setting always on a daily basis. daily basis. This means that even if I have set the chart to weekly or 4h, it always shows me the SMA on a daily basis.

Example $UBER (-0.19%) 1h hour chart - but the SMA are still on a daily basis, not like the default setting, which always refers to the chart - then the SMAs would be calculated on a 200 / 50 / 5 hour basis!

Next, I'll get the VRVP to see the volumes. I have set the chart to the range since Uber has been in an overarching sideways phase.

I can see the price area with the highest volume and the distribution where 68% of the volume has taken place.

My VRVP settings are as follows, I adjust the line size depending on the visible range - the larger the range, the larger the number of lines.

So, I now have a good overview of the trend after a few minutes.

Now it's time to continue with the VWAP. My anchored VWAP I place it in a prominent position for me. In this case the last low before the start of the sideways phase. This is how I see the "DNA" of Uber - How does Uber behave in the statistical areas of the volume-weighted average price.

For my short-term trades, I zoom into the close range, but the anchored VWAP remains. I only switch to the 1 hour chart and the last few months.

The white circles then show potential entries and exits for me. The orange circles at the bottom show the earnings, there's always a lot of movement😁

Of course, I also look in detail at the price action, i.e. the candles per time unit.

In principle, this describes my main procedure for determining the buy/sell point.

That's it 🤷‍♂️ has been working for me for a long time with the outcome as described in part 2 https://getqu.in/TVNdpR/

Because of the overview, I have hidden the VRVP in the VWAP views, but I always leave it on for my analysis.

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and SMA5 for the short-term trend

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and VWAP on a weekly basisI can see where the VWAP of the current week has moved. It's also nice to see how and where the big volumes of the week have positioned themselves 😁

So, that's a bit more detail on my setup. As you can see, with a little practice and routing, you can analyze a stock in a short time. For me, such an analysis usually takes no longer than 10 minutes and I know whether a trade makes sense for me and where to place my buy and sell orders.

PS: I have found a clever script on TradingView for some of my stock screener filters. You can always display some criteria live - in the chart at the bottom right

You can find it under the indicators: Ticker Dashboard For Better Stock Selection

$ADYEN (+0.94%)
$MMK (-0.4%)
$MRK (+0.44%)
$KTN (-1.14%)
$BRBY (-0.11%)
$OMV (+0.8%)
$VER (-0.19%)
$BG (-0.28%)
$VOE (-0.18%)
$ZAL (-1.51%)
$VRTX (+0.99%)
$RDC (-0.51%)

#trading

As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Thanks to the bad weather, the next part will be published before the weekend! 🌨🌨 Next week I'll be traveling for work from Monday to Wednesday - so long posts will be difficult. But maybe I'll be able to pick up some exciting insights from SAP & Amazon. 😊

I'm pretty busy, but if anyone happens to be at SAPPHIRE in Madrid... 🍻

Today I'll give you an insight into my trading setupbut first I'll briefly talk about the outcome bias. This is an important topic that can become a trap, especially at the beginning of trading.

Outcome bias

Outcome bias is the misconception that the quality of a trade is determined by the result. Anyone who enters into a trade on the straight and narrow and then makes a profit often thinks they have got the hang of it. I like to compare it to a casino: I bet on red, win and consider myself "strategic" 🤪😅

When trading, it is important to success or the strategy by the repeatability by repeatability. By clear rules. A strategic trade can lead to a loss. An intuitive decision can lead to a profit. Anyone who makes the latter the yardstick for their trading is undermining long-term success.

👉 Remember: In trading, it is not those with courage and luck who are rewarded in the long term, but the systematic ones!

This leads us straight to the first details of my setup.

What are my premises?

• I only trade shares - no derivatives, leveraged products, KOs, Forex or anything else

I have tried a few things, but for my trading behavior shares have proved to be the most sustainable with the best profit/loss ratio.

• Keep it simple - Only a handful of indicators

Over the years I have tried all kinds of indicators and oscillators. From RSI, MACD, Fibonacci, all possible trend lines, so that the actual chart progression was barely visible 🤪

• I only trade when it makes sense according to my rules

Trading not just for the sake of trading. Quality before quantity, if it doesn't fit or if time is tight, then I don't trade for a week or two.

Now that you know that my focus is only on equities, I'll move on to stock selection. In my opinion, this is just as important as chart analysis and deriving entry and exit points.

What are my filter criteria for screening?

• ADR Average Daily Range

The daily range is the range between the daily high and the daily low, a large range facilitates short-term trading, e.g. intraday or only a few days

• ADV Average Daily Volume
• $VOL
  Average daily volume multiplied by the last daily closing price

These two filters ADV and $VOL ensure the liquidity to get out of the trade at any time.

• Market capitalization

I am not a fan of penny stocks and very small market capitalization

• Gap greater than 5% on earnings

• Upcoming earnings

I also like to trade around earnings, there's often a lot of movement.

In general, I like stocks that are moving in a sideways trend, or prices that are at the VWAP or at one of the outer edges of the deviation bands.

What are my indicators for chart analysis?

• SMA 200 / 50 / 5 for trend determination

Attention ONLY for trend determination - is not used for entry/exit points!

• VRVP Visible Range Volume Profile - the volume profile on the Y-axis. You can usually see it on the left-hand side of my charts. This shows me volume areas where there was a lot of trading. I derive my entry/exit points from this indicator and the VWAP

• VWAP Volume Weighted Average Price - shows me the average volume-weighted price at the various time levels. I usually look at this on a monthly and weekly basis. For very short-term trades such as intraday also on a daily basis or on a session basis. I then use the "anchored" VWAP for the entry/exit prices. In return for the fixed values of the VWAP such as month, week or day, I can place it exactly where I want to see the VWAP from. Points for anchored VWAP are swing changes.

• Volume per time unit I usually hide it again after the first glance in order to keep a clear overview. It's about seeing the interest per candle.

Conclusion: I only use SMA and volume, no more, but also no less.

PS: A short "deepdive" on the indicators, the exact settings, etc. will follow in a separate post👆 https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

In general, I always start my analysis on the stock's home exchange. First a quick look at the last 10 years in the weekly chart, then I continue with the daily chart looking at the last 2-3 years and then the close range of the last months or even just days, depending on how the time horizon of my trade is set up. In the close range, I also like the 4h, 1h or 15min chart. The whole thing is overlaid with the 3 SMAs 200 / 50 and 5 days for the short-term trend.

Once I have a good overview of the trend, I move on to the 2nd layout with VRVP and VWAP or aVWAP. I am always happy when significant volumes of the VRVP coincide with the VWAP or the bandwidths 1 and 2 of the anchored VWAP. According to my statistics, the success rate is highest here. Depending on which exchange I want to trade on, I then also set the chart to this exchange.

I could write endlessly about volume in connection with the VWAP, but that would go beyond the scope of this article. Volume highs, volume lows, POC, volume area, deviation bands 1 and 2, etc...

To see how I use these indicators, you are welcome to read my posts on $NOVO B (-1.82%) or also $UBER (-0.19%) to see them. Or also my short 5min analysis for $MRK (+0.44%) which I recently created for my compatriot @7Trader recently. You can find them all in the feed of my profile from the recent past.

Should I go into more detail on charts & inferences in my future trading posts? Let me know in the comments!

So, that's it again for today - have a nice week!

Click here for part 4

https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

$RDC (-0.51%)
$KTN (-1.14%)
$ZAL (-1.51%)
$MMK (-0.4%)

#trading

TL;DR like to roast my deposit, appreciate all opinions!

I always find the many posts here and reading various biographies very interesting, so I've wanted to say a few words for a while now.

Tried early, but started late

I am now 32 and unfortunately started investing seriously far too late, studied far too long, and with the larger salaries finally built up as much as possible and tried to catch up as quickly as possible. "Unfortunately" means for the most part the past calendar year, which is why I put a large part of my money into shares at already high prices and then had very little cash left in the crash to add to it. Fully invested, in other words. During the crash, I mainly reallocated and continued to fully invest what was left over from my monthly salaries.

Yet back in 2011, at the age of 18, I had a share called Facebook and a Starbucks share in my portfolio without much of a clue. I just wanted to know what my mother was actually doing with her shares and how it worked, and with FB and Starbucks I simply chose two companies that "everyone" uses/needs anyway. The idea wasn't that stupid, it worked, and after a short time I was happy about the small profit in absolute terms, sold the shares at DiBa despite the high fees at the time and simply forgot about shares for years - wealth accumulation, a word that wasn't in my vocabulary, the money I had was simply turned upside down as a young adult. Well, young me, just leave the shares lying around or, even better, take a closer look at them and carry on, it "might" have been worth it...

Of priorities and wrong horses

The years went by without any shares, but with lots of fast food and partying, but at least things have changed. At some point, I started to think about the future and wealth accumulation, first taking an interest in interest rates, and then the logical next step was dividends and shares. Unfortunately, it started rather haphazardly. As a student, I started investing small amounts, and of course betting on the wrong horses. Speculative lithium shares were particularly bad in this phase, unfortunately these were large sums even by my standards, from my grandfather's estate. That was bad. However, crypto was a very good horse, more precisely $BTC (+2.32%) and $ETH (+1.95%) which (as a computer scientist) I became interested in early on and exited several times with high profits, also thanks to domestic mining. It's just stupid that back then, in the last decade, I would never have imagined how cryptos would develop. If I had, I would have simply left it all, or at least part of it. You learn and you're always smarter afterwards anyway.

Fully invested - excessive, unhealthy, or simply good housekeeping?

So now I'm 32 - and proud of a portfolio that I think I've built up to a good size in a relatively short time. Which has given me other ideas for some time now. I'm still a long way from reaching my goal, but I have to get back on the "invest 100%" path, which has been completely contrary to my past for a long time now, and strangely enough, I'm finding it difficult to do so - something to reflect on. There are too many (supposed?) opportunities every day. So I simply could not $UNH (-0.07%) after a long period of observation yesterday and of course the savings plans had to run today too. I think I've always been good at budgeting, or let's put it this way, at least good at getting by with the money available to me in a perfectly timed way, but "indulging", not just in company shares, may become a little more prominent again. I don't go without noticeably in everyday life, I need very little, which I don't think is a bad quality to begin with. But I have changed a lot in the area of "consumption" compared to the past. I think it would be good to find a healthy balance. In my opinion, just as you don't just live to work, but work to live, the same applies to saving/investing. I actually read a post here on gq today that described exactly that and I could relate to it very well. So, reflection and taking your foot off the gas is allowed - no, it's a must! I am familiar with frugalists, but I never wanted to be one. I'd be interested to know if anyone else here feels the same way, or did?

Wrong decisions, mistakes... and (hopefully) the right conclusions

Back to the topic! (Not only) on the way to today's portfolio I have made many wrong decisions, as already mentioned, so I thought that a well-kept portfolio roast could do me some good. Other, new opinions and assessments can't be bad!

In particular, in the past I have often missed the opportunity to simply let profits run their course and instead dragged losses around with me for too long (which brings us back to lithium). A thought that I recently had again when I was thinking about when it would make sense to $HIMS (-0.07%) possibly realize, as an example. $PLTR (+0.61%) and $NVDA (-0.3%) are two examples that, like so many others, I naturally had on my radar, but they always seemed too expensive, the setback never came and I really missed the big rallies as a result. At the same time, I also get caught out by FOMO from time to time. So in both good and bad phases, I try not to just see red or green, fear or hope, but simply to evaluate what actually makes sense "from now on". Sometimes you realize a loss in order to try your luck elsewhere, sometimes you should let profits run, sometimes take them, sometimes endure the dip, sometimes be courageous and sometimes defensive. Easier said than done. I find it very nice and helpful to exchange ideas on this platform and how open and "yet" respectful it generally is. Of course, I will most likely never reach some portfolio sizes, but you can always learn something about how some people manage their portfolios, regardless of the absolute figures. You will always make mistakes, but at least you should deal with them correctly and draw the best possible conclusions.

Portfolio restructuring, planned investments / savings plans

And today? After some evaluation, research, regrouping and restructuring, I now have fewer, but still quite a few positions in different sectors, most of which are already of a decent and roughly balanced size. My medium-term plan is now to build up all positions to a certain target size. This is why I am currently running savings plans:

$MPWR (-0.15%)

$AVGO (-0.05%)

$ISRG (-0.5%)

$DXCM (+0.26%)

$DHR (-1.35%)

$ALV (-0.34%)

$9988 (-0.01%)

$BRK.B (-0.18%)

$APH (+0.37%)

$MELI (-0.66%)

$BLK (-0.78%)

$RSG (-0.14%)

$DGE (-1.35%)

$VKTX (-0.07%)

ETF/ETC:

$UBU7 (-0.15%)

$EWG2 (-0.92%)

Partly with small weekly amounts, until enough cash is available to fill the target position evenly. With $AVGO (-0.05%) for example, there is not much left. Also $BRK.B (-0.18%) / $APH (+0.37%) and others are already approaching the target. In some cases with somewhat larger sums for still small but prioritized positions, until opportunities and/or resources for individual purchases arise, such as the $ALV (-0.34%) and $RSG (-0.14%) should be mentioned here, as well as $DGE (-1.35%) as a turnaround candidate.

Once the aforementioned positions are full, I would like to turn my attention to the more defensive candidates that are already in the portfolio but which I am currently prioritizing - $MCD (+0%) / $KO (+0.34%) / $CCEP (+0.37%) / $ULVR (+0%) and others - and finally increase the ETF and gold share in the long term.

$VKTX (-0.07%) is a bit of a gamble, as I have actually said goodbye to pharma - $ABBV (-0.37%) / $NOVO B (-1.82%) / $LLY (+0.25%) and $MRK (+0.44%) were still part of the inventory until recently. Instead, I decided to go with $DXCM (+0.26%) / $ISRG (-0.5%) / $DHR (-1.35%) on medical technology.

$BTC (+2.32%) remains a fixed value in the portfolio, while I $ETH (+1.95%) (incorrectly entered due to staking - around 0.4 shares or €1000) and $XRP (+2.76%) would/will sell at corresponding prices.

I still lack around €15,000 in individual stocks at current prices to bring all positions to the current desired/dream target. This will take some time, but is foreseeable. And then I would be really quite proud and happy "as things stand now"! In any case, I now feel very comfortable on the path I have chosen and, as I said, I have to stop myself from forgetting that not all money has to be invested all the time.

Savings rate

To put this into figures, I have averaged a savings rate of around €1500 over the last 24 months, with an average of €100 a month in dividends. 1400€ investment, that's about 82% of my monthly budget after deducting all "unavoidable" fixed costs including fuel and household, but not including consumption such as clothes, going out or vacations. Exaggerated, I can't say otherwise myself. But at least I have a good reason to step on the gas and get the compound interest going.

So what is all this for?

In the long term, my girlfriend and I dream of owning a property somewhere on the Croatian Adriatic, her homeland, and where I was able to spend many wonderful weeks with my parents every year as a child. A beautiful region that I consider an important part of my life, with many great moments and memories that may become even more. I hope to get closer to this goal "quickly" with the depot. The language is already halfway there! :)

In the long term, this would probably involve a little reallocation into value dividend payers, which should help with repayment. However, I would also like to lay the foundations for later distributions today, without neglecting growth. There is probably no perfect mix for this, but you are welcome to rate mine.

So, unfortunately I was once again unable to be brief. Thank you for reading, whoever has made it this far, and for your comments! I'm very excited and wish you all a great weekend.

Merck backtracks on annual forecast + Deutsche Telekom increases profits significantly + Siemens grows strongly + Mediamarkt parent Ceconomy improves profitability + RWE records losses as expected

Merck $MRK (+0.44%)rows back with annual forecast

• The pharmaceutical and technology group Merck KGaA is lowering its targets for the year due to the recent strong exchange rate fluctuations, for example in the US dollar.
• In addition, the slight adjustment of the forecast in the laboratory business also reflects the "current uncertainties with regard to customs duties", the DAX-listed company announced in Darmstadt on Thursday.
• Nevertheless, Merck remains confident of achieving sustainable growth.
• Management now expects sales for the year as a whole to be in the range of EUR 20.9 to 22.4 billion, compared to the previous forecast of EUR 21.5 to 22.9 billion.
• Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization adjusted for special items (adjusted EBITDA) are now expected to come in at 5.8 to 6.4 billion dollars in 2025 instead of the previously targeted 6.1 to 6.6 billion dollars.
• Meanwhile, Merck continued its recovery from a post-corona dip at the start of the year.
• Sales climbed by around three percent year-on-year to 5.28 billion euros, with the Group benefiting from the recovery in the pharmaceutical manufacturing business, particularly in the laboratory sector.
• However, semiconductor materials for AI applications also remained in demand.
• The operating result (adjusted EBITDA) rose by almost six percent to EUR 1.54 billion and exceeded analysts' average expectations.
• Merck earned 738 million euros after taxes, compared to 699 million euros a year earlier.

Deutsche Telekom $DTE (+0%)increases profit significantly

• Deutsche Telekom continued to benefit from the growth of its US subsidiary in the first quarter and slightly raised its profit outlook for the year as a whole.
• Thanks in part to the even stronger dollar in the first quarter, the DAX-listed company's revenue increased by 6.5 percent to 29.8 billion euros, as the Bonn-based company announced on Thursday.
• Increasing service revenues in German mobile communications also contributed to this.
• The operating result adjusted for special items (EBITDA AL) rose by 7.9 percent to just under 11.3 billion euros.
• Below the line, special effects in particular led to a significant increase in profit of 43.5 percent to 2.8 billion euros.
• Based on constant exchange rates from the previous year, Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Höttges now expects an operating result of around 45.0 billion euros and a free cash flow AL of around 20.0 billion euros.
• This is 100 million euros more than before. The reason for this is that the US subsidiary had already slightly increased its forecast due to acquisitions.

Siemens $SIE (-0.02%)grows strongly

• The technology group Siemens grew strongly in the second quarter and performed better than expected.
• The company benefited from robust business in the field of intelligent infrastructure, the Mobility train division and the medical technology subsidiary Healthineers.
• Turnover rose by seven percent to just under 19.8 billion euros at the end of March, as the company announced in Munich on Thursday. Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, the increase was six percent.
• The result of the industrial business increased by almost 30 percent to 3.24 billion euros.
• Siemens also benefited from the sale of non-core activities at Smart Infrastrucure.
• Order intake grew significantly by ten percent to 21.6 billion euros.
• The Train Division and Siemens Healthineers recorded significantly more new business.
• Incoming orders in the Digitalization division were at the previous year's level.
• There were rays of hope in the automation business, which has been weakening for some time: Siemens recorded significant growth there again thanks to higher demand from China.
• According to Siemens, the excess inventory in the region, which had been persisting for several quarters, was coming to an end.
• In contrast, automation orders in Germany had declined considerably.
• The figures were significantly better than analysts had expected.
• Siemens confirmed its forecast for the current fiscal year.
• The recently completed takeover of the US software group Altair is still not included.

Mediamarkt parent company Ceconomy $CEC (+0.25%)improves profitability

• The Mediamarkt and Saturn parent company Ceconomy has further improved its profitability.
• Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) doubled to ten million euros in the traditionally weaker second quarter, as the retail group announced in Düsseldorf on Thursday.
• "For the ninth time in a row, we are growing sustainably and improving our profitability - proof that our strategy is successful and is being implemented consistently," said interim CEO Kai-Ulrich Deissner.
• The former CFO has taken over the position from Carsten Wildberger, who has moved into politics and is now in charge of the Digital Ministry in the new German government.
• According to the company, it is on course to achieve its medium-term targets.
• "We are focusing on strict cost discipline and adapting quickly to market changes," commented interim CFO Remko Rijnders.
• Turnover fell from 5.3 to 5.2 billion euros in the three months to the end of March.
• Analysts had expected an increase. Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, Ceconomy achieved growth of 1.3 percent.
• Ceconomy's realignment from a traditional retailer to an omnichannel platform is reportedly progressing.
• Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, online sales increased by 7.4 percent to just under 1.3 billion euros, accounting for a quarter of total sales.
• Ceconomy confirmed its forecast for 2024/25.

RWE $RWE (+0.67%)records losses as expected

• As expected, the energy group RWE suffered a decline in operating profit at the start of the year.
• Among other things, the DAX-listed company recorded a rather weak start to the year in energy trading.
• Furthermore, weak wind conditions in Europe led to lower wind power production at sea and on land and thus to a drop in earnings, RWE announced in Essen on Thursday.
• The Executive Board confirmed its forecast for the year and operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (ber EBITDA) fell by 23.5 percent to 1.3 billion euros in the first quarter.
• Adjusted for special effects, net profit even fell by almost 38 percent to just under half a billion euros.
• The results were thus roughly in line with the analysts' estimates made by the company in advance.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• BMW € 4.30
• Microsoft Corp $0.83
• Unilever PLC £ 0.39
• Shell PLC $ 0.36
• BP PLC £ 0.06
• Exxon Mobil Corp $ 0.99
• GSK PLC £ 0.16

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 13:00 Walmart quarterly figures
• 13:30 Alibaba Group quarterly figures
• 14:00 Blackrock | Morgan Stanley AGM
• 22:30 AT&T AGM
• No time specified: Applied Materials | Deere & Co Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 TAG Immobilien | Allianz | Ceconomy | Deutsche Telekom | Merck KGaA
• 07:00 RWE | Siemens quarterly figures
• 07:00 Thyssenkrupp | Aareal Bank | Grenke | Schott Pharma | Südzucker
• 07:00 Thyssenkrupp Nucera quarterly figures
• 07:30 Prosiebensat1 | Talanx | Dermapharm | Douglas | Port of Hamburg
• 07:30 MLP quarterly figures
• 07:50 Engie | Energiekontor quarterly figures
• 08:00 RTL Group | Wüstenrot & Württembergische | Villeroy & Boch | Jost Werke
• 08:00 National Grid quarterly figures | Siemens PK
• 09:00 Thyssenkrupp PK | Ceconomy Analyst Conference
• 09:30 Merck KGaA PK | Siemens Analyst Conference
• 10:00 Aixtron | Commerzbank | Eon | Heidelberg Materials | Hugo Boss
• 10:00 Elmos Semiconductor | Redcare Pharmacy | Just Eat Takeaway AGM
• 10:00 Deutsche Telekom | RWE PK
• 11:00 Borussia Dortmund Quarterly Figures | United Internet AGM | Allianz PK
• 11:00 Thyssenkrupp Analyst Conference
• 11:30 Grenke PK
• 13:00 RWE Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Allianz | Merck KGaA Analyst Conference

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Wholesale prices April

08:00 UK: GDP (1st release) | GDP March | Trade Balance March | Industrial Production March

08:45 FR: Consumer prices April

09:00 FR: ECB Director Cipollone, speech at French payments forum

11:00 EU: GDP (2nd release) 1Q Eurozone FORECAST: +0.4% yoy/+1.2% yoy 1st release: +0.4% yoy/+1.2% yoy 4th quarter: +0.2% yoy/+1.2% yoy

11:00 EU: Industrial Production March Eurozone FORECAST: +1.1% yoy/+2.1% yoy Previous: +1.1% yoy/+1.2% yoy

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSE: 226,000 previous: 228,000 | April producer prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: -0.4% yoy | Philadelphia Fed Index May PROGNOSE: -10.5 previous: -26.4

14:30 US: Retail Sales April PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +1.4% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy 14:30 US: Empire State Manufacturing Index May PROGNOSE: -9.0 previous: -8.1

15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization April Industrial Production PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.8% previous: 77.8%

16:00 US: Inventories March PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy

Link to the first post https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

I will also link all parts in the first post and pin the first post in my profile.

This part of the post is about the following 2 topics

• Trading versus Buy&Hold
• What are the requirements for trading

To Buy&Hold I don't need to explain much more here 😉 It's a well-known and proven method, particularly suitable for more passive investors or those who don't want to deal with the stock market on an ongoing basis. Start with a savings plan - "time in the market" pays off!

When trading the situation is somewhat different. Active trading is required here. "Timing the market" is the motto. With the appropriate knowledge, a careful approach, good risk management and, above all, discipline, it is far more than just "gambling" or "gambling".

When I analyze my losing trades, the cause is almost always a lack of discipline, such as impatience or poor risk management. Sounds simple, but it's not... "The spirit was willing, the flesh was weak" 🤪🤷‍♂️

Conclusion:

• B&H and trading are not mutually exclusive, but can be combined well and sensibly. Part of my trading income, for example, flows into my B&H share on an ongoing basis.

• Trading means being responsible inform - plan trade - execute trade!

• Without a genuine interest in active trading and having fun trading, this will not work. If you just follow tips or influencers, you will almost certainly end up with the ominous 80% who only lose money (if only because the timing is no longer right).

The last two points in the conclusion are a good transition to the topic "Prerequisites for trading". In my view, in addition to the points already mentioned, the following aspects are essential in order to be sustainably profitable:

• Money management
• A trading tool
• Knowledge of chart analysis "a fool with a tool is still a fool"
• Discipline

Money management:

On the subject of money management, I would like to refer you to one of my older posts. It is essentially about determining the capital investment and the position size based on the maximum acceptable loss.

A proven guideline in trading is: Never risk more than 0.5% to max. 1% of your available capital per trade. You can find details on this in the following post https://getqu.in/tzhXqc/

Trading Tool:

Since trading is all about "timing the market", there is no getting around a trading tool. There are several tools on the market, and almost all of them offer a free version to get you started. The free versions are usually not sufficient for professional trading, as important indicators and data are missing. However, they are perfectly adequate for starting out and testing a little.

Tip: Use the free trial months of the subscription models to decide for yourself whether and which paid subscriptions are of interest to you.

I use TradingView https://www.tradingview.com and I'm really happy with it. In addition to the chart tool, there are lots of functions such as share screeners, market information, watchlists, price alerts, calendars for events such as earnings and dividends and a news feed. There is also a community, but I haven't used it yet.

Tip for beginners: TradingView also offers a demo account (paper trading), where you can safely start trading and test your strategies without using real money. Paper Trading — main functionality — TradingView

If you are interested in TradingView, I can offer you a referral link (just ask for it in the comments - I don't want to actively post the link here). Then we both get 15$ each credited to the fees. PS: I am not a Finfluencer and have nothing else to do with TradingView. It is not a source of income nor the goal of these posts - it would just be the usual friend-referral.

Knowledge of chart analysis:

Well, as written above, "a fool with a tool is still a fool". Of course, you can't do it without learning and dealing with the subject. The trading tools are all very helpful, but without understanding what you are doing with them and how to use the charts, indicators or oscillators, it won't work. Fortunately, today there are lots of tutorials on YouTube, communities etc. where you can acquire knowledge free of charge.

There will be more on chart analysis in the last part of the articles when it comes to my trading setup.

Discipline:

This last point is the most important; in combination with the 3 previous points, discipline is the key to success. Even long-time traders are subject to FOMO with accompanying ill-considered or not properly analyzed trades. This often ends the way it must... "Know yourself and your trading behavior!"

Please note, this article only reflects my experience. There are many different approaches to trading - there is no right or wrong. In the end, everyone has to find a setup that suits them.

Actually, I wanted to cover the first three points today, but as this post is already quite long, I'd rather end it in the spirit of TL:TR and will cover the points "Time spent" and "Trade frequency" in the next post. Possibly also "Profit and loss trades YTD 2025", which would fit in with the trade frequency / number of trades.

PS: as I'm traveling for work for the rest of the week, there won't be any more parts until next week.

Click here for part 2

https://getqu.in/TVNdpR/

#trading

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