Hello my investors,

I hope you have been able to process my analysis of $MELI (+2.5%) as well as I did. Below you can see my first partial sale of my put option on Mercadolibre, tomorrow the 2nd part will be sold.

Read the analysis again to know what to do in the next few weeks regarding $MELI (+2.5%) to do.

Your duck

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (+2.55%)
Intel $INTC (+1.8%)
Salesforce $CRM (+0.69%)
Alphabet $GOOG (+1.03%) and Meta $META (-2.23%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-0.6%)
Macy's $M (+1.82%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0.51%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-0.07%)
and AT&T $T (-0.14%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0.05%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (+1.64%)
or Xylem $XYL (+0%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+2.79%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0.66%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-1.55%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (+0.79%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (+4.49%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-1.3%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (+2.5%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (+2.01%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+1.49%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-0.27%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

$JMIA (+2.64%) - Company presentation (difficult market/great potential):

$JMIA (+2.64%) is an online trading company operating in Africa. The company offers a wide range of products such as electronic goods and fashion.

It offers payment, food delivery, credit and flight booking services.

They stand out in the African e-commerce landscape. Their innovative platform is revolutionizing traditional retail by offering a diverse range of products and services online that are tailored to the specific needs of the African market. The company's integrated payment system, JumiaPay, enhances the customer experience through a seamless, secure transaction process. Jumia's logistics network, designed to overcome regional challenges, ensures efficient delivery, strengthening the company's position as a leader in African e-commerce.

$JMIA (+2.64%) was founded in Lagos Nigeria in 2012 by two former management consultants Jeremy Hodara and Sacha Poignonnec.

$JMIA (+2.64%) is active in 11 African countries: Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Senegal, Uganda

$JMIA (+2.64%) Logistics enables the convenient and reliable delivery of goods. It consists of a large network of rented warehouses, pick-up stations for consumers and drop-off points for sellers, as well as more than 400 local external logistics service providers. Their logistics partners and facilities are seamlessly integrated and managed through their proprietary technology, data and processes.

$JMIA (+2.64%) is taxable in Berlin, the development team is based in Portugal and the actual headquarters are in Dublin .

For this reason, and because the nationality of the two CEOs is French, there are various doubts that $JMIA (+2.64%) is an African company, as is claimed in the self-promotion.

• In March 2016, the company managed to raise 50 million euros in venture capital
• As Africa's first "unicorn", the technology start-up reached a valuation of over 1 billion US dollars
• In April 2019, the company made its stock market debut on the New York Stock Exchange, raising capital of USD 196 million
• Jumia's share price initially tripled within the first three days of trading before settling back around the initial price a month later
• Among other things, the share price was negatively affected by the allegation made by the US portal Citron Research that Jumia had reported false key figures prior to the IPO.

Arguments for $JMIA (potential/giant market opportunities):

• Africa's e-commerce penetration is only ~5%, compared to over 20% globally, suggesting huge upside potential
• Africa's population is projected to account for 25% of the world's population by 2050 (a huge untapped consumer base)
• With an average age of 19.7 years - a young, digitally savvy consumer base.
• Internet penetration is growing rapidly and is expected to reach 65% by 2030, driven by affordable smartphones and growing infrastructure.
• $JMIA (+2.64%) is active in 11 major African markets and covers over 70% of the continent's GDP and internet users.
• Market leader in logistics: $JMIA (+2.64%) Processed 5.6 million parcels on Black Friday and has a delivery infrastructure that covers urban and rural areas
• Fintech expansion: JumiaPay increased transactions by 40% year-on-year, creating opportunities in Africa's underserved regions with banking services
• Financial upside and synergies: Jumia's market capitalization is USD 554 million, the company trades at only about double its revenue
• 1.7 billion Africans will join the consumer economy by 2030, driving demand for e-commerce
• Strong growth figures: GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) +33% YoY (currency adjusted) showing robust demand.
• Orders +18 % YoY, driven by the success of Black Friday.
• Growth in the interior of Nigeria: +44 % YoY,
• Solid financial position: USD 164.6m in cash reserves - ample liquidity for future investments. Operating losses are falling every quarter, demonstrating cost discipline and efficiency gains.
• Attractive valuation: Trades at ~2x sales and 1.7x EV/sales, well below peers in high-growth markets. Market capitalization of USD 554m positions Jumia as a small-cap with significant upside potential.
• Strategic implementation: Focus on domestic expansion, procurement efficiency and adaptation to local markets. Utilization of logistical capacities: 5.6 million parcels were handled during the Black Friday season (+24% year-on-year).
• Long-term potential: Positioned as Africa's leading e-commerce platform. Benefits from improved infrastructure, increasing internet penetration and growing consumer acceptance.
• The African e-commerce market is expected to grow exponentially from USD 30 billion in 2024 to over USD 75 billion in 2030.

The anxiety around Jumia often revolves around a single question: what happens when giants like $AMZN (+0.26%) , $BABA (-2.95%) or $PDD (-2.16%) decide to enter the African market?

At first glance, this is a legitimate concern. But this perspective overlooks the essence of e-commerce success in Africa. It's not about flashy apps or sprawling warehouses in cities - it's about solving the logistical puzzle. And that's where Jumia's advantage lies. Africa's logistical challenges are unprecedented. In many regions, physical addresses are not a given, but a rarity, making deliveries difficult and turning traditional e-commerce models on their head.

$JMIA (+2.64%) operates in an environment where customers often live miles away from hubs and there are no traditional delivery points. This is where Jumia has built its moat. It's more than an e-commerce platform, it's a logistics powerhouse designed to tackle the complexities of the continent. It's not just about delivering parcels. Jumia's network connects remote and rural regions that global competitors may not be able to serve. Take Nigeria, for example. With a population of over 200 million, the consumer base extends far beyond the urban centers of Lagos. Selling products is one thing, reaching underserved regions with sparse infrastructure is another and this is where $JMIA (+2.64%) strength.

The logistics system is not easily replicated and is a barrier to entry that global giants must reckon with. International players eyeing Africa have a difficult choice: invest billions in building a comparable infrastructure or partner with $JMIA (+2.64%) whose network has already proven itself in markets such as Ghana, Kenya and the Ivory Coast. In either case $JMIA (+2.64%) benefit from this. The company is the natural ally - or rival - for any e-commerce player trying to gain a foothold in Africa. And $JMIA (+2.64%) is constantly improving its market position and is not satisfied. Operational improvements are further consolidating its position. Consolidating smaller warehouses into larger, technology-enabled facilities and optimizing fulfillment centers in core markets such as Nigeria and Ghana reduces $JMIA (+2.64%) inefficiencies. These changes not only reduce costs, but also create scalability, allowing the company to expand deeper into untapped regions where there is little competition.

Of course, the macroeconomic backdrop is tough. Currency devaluations and volatile markets weigh heavily on $JMIA (+2.64%) 's operating environment. But its logistics network remains an irreplaceable asset that global competitors struggle to replicate, even with significant investment. A current outstanding key figure underlines this: Over 50% of orders from $JMIA (+2.64%) now come from outside the major cities, a testament to its reach and resilience.

Western companies often dream of penetrating African markets, but constantly fail. Deciphering the African logistics code has proved too complex, and currency risks are driving many to retreat. Meanwhile $JMIA (+2.64%) is flourishing. It is adapting to challenges that others consider insurmountable and consolidating its leadership position.

Can competitors catch up? A question that is often asked ?

At the moment, they can't really. Jumia's logistics network is more than an operational tool, it's a fortress. This system, built to withstand Africa's unique challenges, is the foundation of its success. It is also the core of its strategy, the playbook of $AMZN (+0.26%) , $MELI (+2.5%) , $BABA (-2.95%) to follow.

Building a strong logistics network to create lasting barriers to market entry. The latest Black Friday results (as briefly outlined above) underline this potential. Orders increased by 18 % year-on-year, while GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by an impressive 33 % in constant currency.

However, significant currency devaluations in key markets such as Nigeria and Egypt dampened reported GMV growth to just 2%. Despite these headwinds, Jumia's underlying business demonstrates its ability to weather macroeconomic storms. The customer retention metrics speak for themselves. The total number of customers rose by 9% and orders increased by 18%.

A 44% increase in physical goods orders from regions outside Nigeria's major cities. This expansion into the interior of the country underlines the untapped potential that Jumia is beginning to develop.

The switch to an asset-light model is also paying off. Jumia Logistics recorded a 24% increase in parcel volumes, underlining the efficiency of its operations. On the supply side, international procurement is booming. The number of items from global sellers has risen by 31 %.

This diversifies the platform's offering to meet growing consumer demand. This diversification is critical to cementing Jumia's role in Africa's dynamic e-commerce landscape. And yet the market has not caught up. Despite this progress, Jumia's valuation is still not dependent on the dynamics of its core business.

Continued improvements in logistics, geographic expansion and customer acquisition could provide the basis for significant upside potential

However, the way forward will not be easy. Currency fluctuations in key markets and dependence on cash reserves pose risks. But Jumia offers a rare opportunity to enter one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world. $JMIA (+2.64%) is far from over - it is just beginning.

Earnings highlights for the third quarter of 2024:

- Revenue of $36.4 million, down 13% YoY, or up 9% in constant currency

- GMV of $162.9 million, down 1% YoY, or up 29% in constant currency

- Operating loss of $20.1 million compared to $18.3 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 10% YoY, and up 6% in constant currency

- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.0 million compared to $14.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 15% YoY, and up 10% in constant currency

- Loss before income tax from continuing operations of $17.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, down 17% YoY or down 2% in constant currency

- Liquidity position of $164.6 million, an increase of $71.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, that includes the net proceeds from the August 2024 At-the-Market (ATM) offering, compared to a decrease of $19.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

- Net cash flows used in operating activities of $26.8 million compared to $24.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

• Summary and personal opinion: $JMIA (+2.64%) Blend of market leadership, operational improvements and growth in untapped regions, positions the company for exponential growth. At current levels, it could be a rewarding, very long-term investment in one of the most promising markets in the world, even if the environment is very challenging and the investment naturally carries a lot of risk. A takeover by a major player such as $AMZN (+0.26%) , $MELI (+2.5%) , $BABA (-2.95%) could also be possible, as setting up your own logistics is very difficult and costly. ✌️

$AMZN (+0.26%) , $MELI (+2.5%)
$BABA (-2.95%) , $SE (-1.3%) , $PDD (-2.16%) , $JD (-1.37%) , $9618 (-1.17%) , $9988 (-2.55%) , $CPNG (+0.67%) , $EBAY (+0.18%)

(Delayed) portfolio review October 2024 - A month with 5 share sales and one ETF sale

Even though October was just over two weeks ago, it feels like a different time. Germany still had an (unspeakable) traffic light government, in America the race for the White House was still open and a phone call between Scholz and Putin was unthinkable.

And even though November has been much more exciting on the stock market than October so far, October was a month of major changes from a personal perspective.

Apart from stock market investments, we are slowly starting to think about building a house. As a result, for the first time in a long time I made several sales in my portfolio and therefore also cleared out a little.

Previously this year, there were only 2 sales in my portfolio: at NVIDIA I took my stake out in February and since then have only let the profits run. In addition, in March I had Encavis after the takeover bid.

There were a total of 6 sales in October. For just under €7,000 I sold my China ETF which has recovered well over the last few months.

On the equity side, I have now sold most of the Corona Hype stocks and Match, Atlassian, Shopify and Block have been sold. In addition, I have also Pfizer sold. That was another €8,000, leaving only Sea from the Corona hype times, where I will remain invested for the time being, as it covers a completely different region geographically with Southeast Asia.

My savings quota will therefore be significantly reduced for the time being due to the upcoming house building project. From just under €1,500 to €2,000, it will only be €500-600 per month for the time being

Monthly view:

In total, October was +1,7%. This corresponds to price gains of ~5.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +0.9% and the S&P500 +1.5%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is part of the usual picture:

On the winning side is, as so often NVIDIA is at the top with almost €3,000 in share price gains. It is followed by TSMC, Bitcoin, Alphabet and Palo Alto Networks with gains of €900-1,000 each.

On the loser side above all ASML made its contribution with price losses of almost €1,400. This was followed by Bechtle, Thermo Fisher, LVMH and Nike a broader mix of stocks that have not necessarily performed well recently. Nevertheless, all 5 loser stocks are still part of my savings plans.

The performance-neutral movements in October were just under €4,600. The sales proceeds are all still in cash accounts at the moment, so they have not yet flowed out of the assets. There will be a larger dip here at some point in the future.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +27,5% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 23.7%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~331.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€79,000 in the current year 2023. ~53.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.000€ from dividends / interest and ~22.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in October were 32% above the previous year at ~€150
• TSMC is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €30 every 3 months. TSMC has already raised the dividend for next year by 30% again
• In the current year, the dividends after 10 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.350€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in October for approx. 1.500€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsNovo Nordisk $NOVO B (-17.74%) LVMH $MC (-0.25%) Apple $AAPL (+1.34%) Home Depot $HD (+1.1%) Microsoft $MSFT (-1.05%) Nike $NKE (-6.85%) Starbucks $SBUX (-1.55%) Stryker $SYK (+1.48%) Texas Instruments $TXN (-0.01%)
• 
  GrowthCrowdstrike $CRWD (+2.85%) MercadoLibre $MELI (+2.5%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+0.24%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (-0.32%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (-0.09%)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (-2.01%) and Ethereum $ETH (-1.07%)
• 
  Sales as mentioned, there were some in October with Match $MTCH (+4.9%) Pfizer $PFE (+1.49%) Block $SQ (+1.31%) Shopify $SHOP (+0.9%) Atlassian $TEAM Invesco MSCI China All-shares $MCHS (-0.07%)

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€331,000 at the end of October.

As of mid-November and thanks to the Trump rally, my portfolio is currently approaching €350,000 and was even slightly above this level a few days ago. However, with a larger cash portion that will sooner or later flow into financing as equity.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Best in class further increased.

Filled up a whole share. It is still not cheaply valued, but such setbacks need to be exploited.

Post-purchase Mercado Libre

After having built up my position in $MELI (+2.5%) by means of a savings plan, I had the opportunity to invest in a first large tranche today after the setback.

Some thoughts on $MELI (+2.5%) :

• high growth in the emerging region of South and Central America (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico)
• already profitable despite huge investments in growth
• interesting combination of e-commerce and FinTech

The high and profitable growth naturally has its price: the share is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 57. The free cash flow yield is nevertheless attractive and currently stands at around 5.7%. The company therefore generates a high level of cash from its operating business.

The share is comparatively volatile, so I will continue to take a cautious approach here and continuously expand the position via a savings plan.

Stay tuned

Yours Nico Uhlig

Aftermarket after quarterly figures

+26% Applovin $APP (+5.4%)

+20% Lyft $LYFT (-0.92%)

+13% Dutch Bros

+12% Zillow

+9% Upwork

+8% HubSpot

+5% McKesson Corporation

+5% LiveRamp

+4% Take-Two Interactive

+4% QUALCOMM $QCOM (+2.48%)

+3% Gilead Sciences

+3% Paycor

+2% LATAM Airlines

+1% Tangier

-1% Coty

-1% Rapid7

-2% Albemarle

-4% Arm Holdings

-5% AMC Entertainment

-5% TripAdvisor

-7% Duolingo

-9% MercadoLibre $MELI (+2.5%)

-11% Match Group

-15% Wolfspeed

#aktien
#börse
#earnings
#quartalszahlen
#etfs

MercadoLibre Income Statement | $MELI (+2.5%)