$LULU (-0.1%) was bound for a pullback after the -20% drop. I bought the dip and 15 minutes later locked in a neat +5%.

Quick moves, quick profits. 🚀📈

$LULU (-0.1%) was bound for a pullback after the -20% drop. I bought the dip and 15 minutes later locked in a neat +5%.

Quick moves, quick profits. 🚀📈

🚨 $LULU (-0.1%)

Rebound trade? 🤔

• Possible dead cat bounce: +5–8% intraday ($175–180)

• If sell-off continues: next supports $165 and $150

High risk / high volatility setup — strict stop-loss essential ⚠️

Not financial advice

🚨 $LULU (-0.1%) Q2

• EPS $3.10 > est. $2.86 ✅

• Revenue $2.53B < est. $2.54B ❌

• 2nd guidance cut in 3 months:

– Revenue $10.85–11B (from $11.15–11.3B)

– EPS $12.77–12.97 (from $14.58–14.78)

• Americas comps -4% ⚠️

• China +17%, RoW +12% 🌍

Stock -18% premarket (~$169).

Analysts: “It’s going to get worse

With $LULU (-0.1%) guiding EPS ~$13:

• P/E 15x → $195

• P/E 18x → $234

👉 Fair value shifts to ~$190–230 (down from $270–300).

At ~$170, market is pricing in risk that $13 EPS may not be the floor.

Not financial advice ⚠️

Market priced $14–15 EPS for $LULU (-0.1%) , but mgmt now guides ~$13.

At ~$170 → P/E ≈ 13x.

Confirms the slowdown (US softness + China tariffs).

The old “discount” case ($270–300 fair value) no longer holds with new EPS base.

$LULU (-0.1%)

• Revenue: $10.85–11B (from $11.15–11.3B)

• EPS: $12.77–12.97 (from $14.58–14.78)

• Gross profit hit by ~$240M from tariffs & weaker demand

Stock -13% after hours.

$LULU (-0.1%)

🔹 Revenue: $2.53B (Est. $2.54B) 🔴; UP +7% YoY

🔹 EPS: $3.10 (Est. $2.87) 🟢; flat YoY

🔹 Comparable Sales: UP +1% YoY

FY Guidance (lowered):

🔹 Revenue: $10.85B–$11B (Est. $11.20B) 🔴; UP +2–4% YoY

🔹 EPS: $12.77–$12.97 (Est. $14.61) 🔴

Q3 Guidance:

🔹 Revenue: $2.47B–$2.50B (Est. $2.56B) 🔴; UP +3–4% YoY

🔹 EPS: $2.18–$2.23 (Est. $2.90) 🔴"

Other Q2 Metrics:

🔹 Gross Profit: $1.5B; UP +5% YoY

🔹 Gross Margin: 58.5%; DOWN -110 bps YoY

🔹 Operating Income: $523.8M; DOWN -3% YoY

🔹 Operating Margin: 20.7%; DOWN -210 bps YoY

Segment / Regional Results:

🔹 Americas Revenue: UP +1% YoY

🔹 International Revenue: UP +22% YoY (20% constant currency)

🔹 Americas Comparable Sales: DOWN -4% YoY (-3% constant currency)

🔹 International Comparable Sales: UP +15% YoY (13% constant currency)

Other Metrics:

🔹 Tax Rate: 30.5% (vs. 29.6% prior year)

🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.2B

🔹 Inventories: $1.7B; UP +21% YoY (units +13% YoY)

🔹 Share Repurchases: 1.1M shares for $278.5M

🔹 Store Count: 784 (added 14 net new in Q2)

CEO Commentary:

🔸 “We continued to see positive momentum internationally, but are disappointed with U.S. results and product execution.”

🔸 “We are taking actions to strengthen our merchandise mix and accelerate our business.”

🔸 “We remain confident in our long-term growth opportunity.”

CFO Commentary:

🔸 “EPS exceeded expectations, but revenue fell short, driven by U.S. weakness and higher tariffs.”

🔸 “We revised our FY outlook to reflect these dynamics, while maintaining financial discipline and growth investments.”

Why my $LULU (-0.1%) fair value is $30–35B:

• EPS ≈ $15

• Fair P/E 18–20x (history 25–30x) → $270–300/sh

• ~121M shares → $33–36B

Today ~$20–24B ⇒ ~30% discount

Not financial advice ⚠️