Source: Finchat

$PLTR (+2.14%)

$NOW (-2.86%)

$SPOT (+3.13%)

$PANW (-0.45%)

$SHOP (+0.64%)

$CRWD (-0.45%)

$FTNT (+0.86%)

$ABNB (+1.41%)

$COIN (+2.41%)

$AXON (-2.03%)

$RBLX

$NET (-1.17%)

$HOOD (+1.71%)

$TTD (+3.78%)

$DUOL

$HIMS (+1.78%)

Airbnb $ABNB (+1.41%) is now quietly and secretly generating 4.5 billion US dollars in operating cash flow per year - and the trend rising.

The free cash flow margin has also passed the 40% mark exceeded. This feat accomplish only a few companiese.g. Visa $V (+0.33%) / Mastercard $MA (+1.7%) , MSCI $MSCI (+0.94%) and Nvidia $NVDA (-1.35%) .

The sales growth in the core business is slowing down, but is still at 12% per year - despite unspeakable and often false headlines in the media about regulation and competition.

The management plans to increase sales growth again accelerate: off we go from May with the large-scale launch of "Experiences" and other services for guests and hosts.

"Starting in 2025, each year we will launch 1-3 new businesses that could eventually generate over a billion dollars in revenue per year (starting with travel and then moving away from the core); they are not gonna be capital intensive and they all gonna be similar margin to the current business because we are probably going to have a similar take rate." (CEO in October 2024).

The following are conceivable in the long term

• Experiences / activities (when traveling or in the home town)
• Advertising on the platform
• Concierge services
• Flights / rentals (cars, boats)
• Loyalty program (monthly subscription for frequent travelers with comprehensive benefits, discounts, exclusive accommodation, premium customer service, access to gyms, transport, food deliveries)
• Community / Social+ (networking with other local travelers, e.g. for restaurant or concert visits)
• Services for hosts (networking with craftsmen, designers, cleaning staff)
• ... and much more

Airbnb is valued with a forward PE of 24.2 (FY26) and a forward P/OCF of 15.3 (FY26) both of which are below the long-term averages.

Airbnb is rarely priced close to or below the €100 mark. $ABNB (+1.41%) is rarely available.

Do you already have Airbnb $ABNB (+1.41%) already in your portfolio?

It is now slowly becoming clear who has what it takes to make good profits in the coming years.

Here are my top 30 companies by category, which I am particularly looking at in the current crash.

Some are still overvalued, others are already very attractive at the current price level.

Tier 1 (high corporate quality and strong growth)

Airbnb $ABNB (+1.41%)

Alphabet $GOOGL (-1.34%)

Amazon $AMZN (-0.36%)

ASML $ASML (+0.02%)

Axon $AXON (-2.03%)

Cadence $CDNS (+0.52%)

Constellation Software $CSU (-0.67%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-0.45%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (+0.61%)

Hermes $RMS (-2.4%)

Intuit $INTU (+0.36%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+0.69%)

Mastercard $MA (+1.7%)

Meta $META (+0.27%)

Netflix $NFLX (+3.89%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-0.72%)

Palantir $PLTR (+2.14%)

Tesla $TSLA (+0.65%)

Tier-2 (high business quality and moderate growth)

Booking $BKNG (+0.85%)

Costco $COST (+2.66%)

Ferrari $RACE (+1.57%)

Moody's $MCO (-0.03%)

MSCI $MSCI (+0.94%)

Transdigm $TDG (+0.23%)

Tier-3 (medium / solid corporate quality and strong growth)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1.78%)

Robinhood $HOOD (+1.71%)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (+0.64%)

Spotify $SPOT (+3.13%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (+3.78%)

I bought on Friday and am buying again today - even in the course of the next few days and weeks, when we could probably see even lower prices.

Where are you buying?

$ABNB (+1.41%)

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Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)

Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (+1.78%)

Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (+3.13%)

Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (+1.41%)

Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX

Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (+1.71%)

The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (+3.78%)

Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (+0.86%)

Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (+0.64%)

Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (-0.45%)

ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW

Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL

Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (-2.03%)

Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (-0.45%)

Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (-1.17%)

Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (+2.14%)

Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...

Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.

Your opinion?

Airbnb $ABNB (+1.41%)

Amazon $AMZN (-0.36%)

Axon $AXON (-2.03%)

Cadence $CDNS (+0.52%)

Constellation Software $CSU (-0.67%)

Costco $COST (+2.66%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-0.45%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (+0.61%)

Ferrari $RACE (+1.57%)

Hermes $RMS (-2.4%)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1.78%)

Intuit $INTU (+0.36%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+0.69%)

Mastercard $MA (+1.7%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-0.72%)

Moody's $MCO (-0%)

MSCI $MSCI (+0.94%)

Palantir $PLTR (+2.14%)

Robinhood $HOOD (+1.71%)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (+0.64%)

Tesla $TSLA (+0.65%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (+3.78%)

Transdigm $TDG (+0.23%)

Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.

Your opinion?

Nvidia $NVDA (-1.35%)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-7.73%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-0.72%)

ASML $ASML (+0.02%)

Intuit $INTU (+0.36%)

Airbnb $ABNB (+1.41%)

Amazon $AMZN (-0.36%)

MSCI $MSCI (+0.94%)

S&P Global $SPGI (-0.04%)

LVMH $MC (+2.21%)

Nike $NKE (+4.23%)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1.78%)

AMD $AMD (-0.25%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (+3.78%)

Do you see it similarly? Are you currently holding one of these shares?