For me, these are the following:
- Spotify $SPOT (-1.45%)
- Robinhood $HOOD (+0.27%)
- Airbnb $ABNB (+0.39%)
- Duolingo $DUOL
Posts
113For me, these are the following:
🔹 Revenue: $2.27B (Est. $2.26B) 🟢; +6% YoY
🔹 EPS (Diluted): $0.24 (Est. $0.23) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $417M (Est. $363.9M) 🟢
🔹 GBV: $24.5B (Est. $24.46B) 🟢; +7% YoY
Q2'25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $2.99B–$3.05B (Est. $3.03B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: Expected to grow YoY, margin flat to slightly down
🔹 FY25 Adj. EBITDA Margin: Reaffirmed at at least 34.5%
Geographic Performance (Nights & ADR YoY):
🔹 North America: Low-single digit growth in bookings; ADR +2% YoY
🔹 EMEA: Mid-single digit bookings growth; ADR +2% (or +4% ex-FX)
🔹 Latin America: Low-20s bookings growth; ADR -7% (but +2% ex-FX)
🔹 Asia Pacific: Mid-teens bookings growth; ADR -1% (but +3% ex-FX)
Key Trends & Metrics:
🔹 Mobile App Bookings: 58% of total bookings; +17% YoY
🔹 Nights at Superhost listings: +15% YoY
🔹 Guest Favorite Listings: Over 350M nights booked since launch
🔹 Implied Take Rate: 9.3% (Flat YoY)
🔹 TTM Operating Cash Flow: $4.38B
🔹 ADR impacted by FX in Latin America and Asia Pacific
Other Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $154M; DOWN -42% YoY
🔹 Net Income Margin: 7%
🔹 Nights & Experiences Booked: 143.1M; UP +8% YoY
🔹 Average Daily Rate (ADR): $171; DOWN -1% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.8B; DOWN -7% YoY
🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $4.36B; TTM FCF Margin 39%
🔹 Share Repurchase: $807M during Q1; Fully diluted share count reduced to 660M (from 677M YoY)
CEO Commentary and Strategic Highlights:
🔸 "No matter what’s happening in the world, people continue to choose Airbnb. Our adaptable model is proving its strength again."
🔸 "On May 13, Airbnb will go beyond places to stay—we're launching entirely new business lines with our rebuilt tech stack."
🔸 "Continued strong performance in Latin America and Asia Pacific; Brazil and Japan are seeing accelerating growth in bookings and first-time users."
🔸 "Despite global macro uncertainty, we are maintaining profitability while preparing for our next chapter of multi-service offerings."
Good evening everyone!
I have been investing since the age of 18 and learned a lot since then although I was still a student for most of the time so didn't have a lot of money to invest. Since the end of last year I have a fulltime job and most of the money goes into the stock market. Honestly I just want your opinion on my portfolio since I have a lot of cash coming in because of my bonus at the end of the month. With current market opportunities I'm wondering what to buy and thinking of positions in $SHOP (-2.5%)
$SOFI (-0.85%)
$ABNB (+0.39%) and increasing my positions in $GOOGL (-0.82%)
$HIMS (+1.27%)
$AMZN (+0.59%) . Be brutally honest like the dutch always are, thanks!
Airbnb $ABNB (+0.39%) is now quietly and secretly generating 4.5 billion US dollars in operating cash flow per year - and the trend rising.
The free cash flow margin has also passed the 40% mark exceeded. This feat accomplish only a few companiese.g. Visa $V (+0.25%) / Mastercard $MA (-0.53%) , MSCI $MSCI (-0.36%) and Nvidia $NVDA (-0.83%) .
The sales growth in the core business is slowing down, but is still at 12% per year - despite unspeakable and often false headlines in the media about regulation and competition.
The management plans to increase sales growth again accelerate: off we go from May with the large-scale launch of "Experiences" and other services for guests and hosts.
"Starting in 2025, each year we will launch 1-3 new businesses that could eventually generate over a billion dollars in revenue per year (starting with travel and then moving away from the core); they are not gonna be capital intensive and they all gonna be similar margin to the current business because we are probably going to have a similar take rate." (CEO in October 2024).
The following are conceivable in the long term
Airbnb is valued with a forward PE of 24.2 (FY26) and a forward P/OCF of 15.3 (FY26) both of which are below the long-term averages.
Airbnb is rarely priced close to or below the €100 mark. $ABNB (+0.39%) is rarely available.
Do you already have Airbnb $ABNB (+0.39%) already in your portfolio?
It is now slowly becoming clear who has what it takes to make good profits in the coming years.
Here are my top 30 companies by category, which I am particularly looking at in the current crash.
Some are still overvalued, others are already very attractive at the current price level.
Tier 1 (high corporate quality and strong growth)
Airbnb $ABNB (+0.39%)
Alphabet $GOOGL (-0.82%)
Amazon $AMZN (+0.59%)
ASML $ASML (-0.42%)
Axon $AXON (-0.75%)
Cadence $CDNS (-1.22%)
Constellation Software $CSU (-1.51%)
Crowdstrike $CRWD (-4.49%)
Fair Isaac $FICO (-1.12%)
Hermes $RMS (+0.65%)
Intuit $INTU (-0.57%)
Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-1.09%)
Mastercard $MA (-0.53%)
Meta $META (-1.28%)
Netflix $NFLX (-0.49%)
Microsoft $MSFT (-0.01%)
Palantir $PLTR (-1.57%)
Tesla $TSLA (+4.92%)
Tier-2 (high business quality and moderate growth)
Booking $BKNG (-1.38%)
Costco $COST (-0.18%)
Ferrari $RACE (+1.46%)
Moody's $MCO (-0.37%)
MSCI $MSCI (-0.36%)
Transdigm $TDG (-0.97%)
Tier-3 (medium / solid corporate quality and strong growth)
Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1.27%)
Robinhood $HOOD (+0.27%)
Roblox $RBLX
Shopify $SHOP (-2.5%)
Spotify $SPOT (-1.45%)
The Trade Desk $TTD (+4.11%)
I bought on Friday and am buying again today - even in the course of the next few days and weeks, when we could probably see even lower prices.
Where are you buying?
Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)
Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (+1.27%)
Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (-1.45%)
Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (+0.39%)
Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX
Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (+0.27%)
The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (+4.11%)
Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (-0.49%)
Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (-2.5%)
Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (-0.98%)
ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW
Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL
Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (-0.75%)
Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (-4.49%)
Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (+1.75%)
Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (-1.57%)
Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...
Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.
Your opinion?
Airbnb $ABNB (+0.39%)
Amazon $AMZN (+0.59%)
Axon $AXON (-0.75%)
Cadence $CDNS (-1.22%)
Constellation Software $CSU (-1.51%)
Costco $COST (-0.18%)
Crowdstrike $CRWD (-4.49%)
Fair Isaac $FICO (-1.12%)
Ferrari $RACE (+1.46%)
Hermes $RMS (+0.65%)
Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1.27%)
Intuit $INTU (-0.57%)
Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-1.09%)
Mastercard $MA (-0.53%)
Microsoft $MSFT (-0.01%)
Moody's $MCO (-0%)
MSCI $MSCI (-0.36%)
Palantir $PLTR (-1.57%)
Robinhood $HOOD (+0.27%)
Roblox $RBLX
Shopify $SHOP (-2.5%)
Tesla $TSLA (+4.92%)
The Trade Desk $TTD (+4.11%)
Transdigm $TDG (-0.97%)
Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.
Your opinion?