Hello everyone,

I have looked at the stocks in my portfolio with my new but still incomplete knowledge of fundamental analysis and am of the opinion that some stocks are heavily overvalued.

Perhaps they will fall back to their fundamental value soon or at some point?

Yes, actually this is bound to happen in the long term.

So I'm wondering whether I should sell now and invest the capital in fundamentally favorable stocks or in my ETFs?

I also find it interesting that some stocks were already overvalued when I bought them and some only became overvalued later.

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In my opinion, some of the stocks in my portfolio are overvalued:

(not exhaustive)

Palantir $PLTR (-11.65%)

Ferrari $RACE (-3.06%)

Rheinmetall $RHM (-10.98%)

Agree Realty $ADC (-2.24%)

visas $V (-6.9%)

Hermes $RMS (-4.6%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-2.36%)

Nu 😅 $NU (-6.44%)

Asml $ASML (-2.09%)

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On the other hand, I think they are favorably valued at the moment:

(some are not really cheap, but maybe worth buying)

Amazon $AMZN (-3.47%)

Abc $GOOGL (-2.74%)

Sofi $SOFI (-9.67%)

Lockheed Martin $LMT (-3.69%)

Berkshire $BRK.B (-6.3%)

Caterpillar $CAT (-4.89%)

Occidental Petroleum $OXY (-7.71%)

Rio Tinto $RIO (-6.32%)

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I think I probably wouldn't regret it if I just sold everything and put it in the $HMWO (-5.73%) and put it in the But I enjoy individual shares and the risk is limited. Still, I would like to know how you read valuations and translate them into action decisions and what you think about my specific situation and would possibly act.

Hello everyone,

Here is my January Rewind for 2025.

My time-weighted return was 5.75%, which was a good bit better than the S&P 500, but also a good bit worse than the DAX. I would never have expected this at the beginning of the month, and it was surprising that the DAX took off like this.

According to Getquin, I was therefore better than 51% of users.

I received 5 dividends.

From Renasant $RNST (-4.68%)

From Mondelez $MDLZ (-1.08%)

From Pepsico $PEP (-1.81%)

From Agree Realty $ADC (-2.24%)

And from JPMorgan $JPM (-7.37%)

I myself am absolutely satisfied with my performance, with 5.75% a more than successful start to the year. Especially when you consider that the average return on a global ETF is around 8 or 9% a year.

How did your January go?

As some of you may know, a few weeks ago I started the battle to reduce my portfolio from 77 positions to 25-35.

At first it was quite easy to find stocks that I no longer wanted, but gradually it has become more and more difficult. In the meantime, I have already sold quality companies 🤦‍♀️ and often toyed with the idea of keeping the rest.

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However, in my opinion this would be a mistake, as there are still many positions in my portfolio that do not fit in with a growth strategy.

So today, I have added the obvious dividend stocks and placed an SL order on each of them.

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I proceeded as follows:

Agree Realty $ADC (-2.24%) SL set at 59,70€

National Retail $NNN (-2.37%) 40,-€

Hercules $HTGC (-5.99%) 16,07 €

Omega $OHI (-1.67%) 29,14€

Bats $BATS (-4.36%) 30,00€

Ares Cap. $ARCC (-5.64%) 17,- €

Main Street Cap. $MAIN (-6.56%) 43,43€

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I am open to suggestions for improvement and comments 🧘

⚠️US-PCE inflation report for January 2024:

• The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, reflecting changes in consumer spending on goods and services
• Ex. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) from FED

📈 Immediate reaction:

• Equity futures 📈
• US dollar 📉
• Bond yields 📉

✨ Core PCE prices rise:

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, US Core PCE prices, rose 2.8% Y/Y, in line with expectations and slowing from 2.9% in December. This is the lowest annual reading since March 2021.

📉 Headline PCE inflation:

Increase of 2.4% Y/Y, hits estimates, following a 2.6% rise in December. This is also the lowest level since March 2021.

🔢 Monthly changes:

US PCE prices rose 0.3% M/M, in line with estimates. US Core PCE prices also increased by 0.4% M/M, in line with expectations.

🔑 Main finding:

The slowdown in core PCE inflation is good news for the Federal Reserve.

🚀 However...

...US inflation continues to rise much faster than the Fed's target of 2%.

🧐 Core inflation remains stubborn:

It is likely to remain well above the Fed's target for the foreseeable future. The Fed's fight against inflation is therefore far from over.

💡 Perspective:

Contrary to market expectations of a rate cut in June, I believe a cut is unlikely to come until late Q3 as inflation is taking longer than hoped to return to the Fed's 2% target.

Source:

• https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

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Digression:

Headline PCE inflation captures all categories of personal spending by measuring the average price change for all goods and services purchased by consumers for consumption purposes. This comprehensive view makes it an important indicator of overall inflation in the economy.

$O (-2.42%)
$ADC (-2.24%)
$VICI (-2.83%)
$NNN (-2.37%)