The hype is all about humanoid robots, but the constant winners are in the background.

I have divided the analysis into two perspectives. 1. the complete value chain of humanoid robots, which shows all the players from the chip to the finished robot, and 2. the blade manufacturers in the background, who always earn money as enablers, regardless of which manufacturer wins the race.

ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron dominate in manufacturing technology. Quality assurance comes from Keysight, Advantest and Teradyne. Chip design is supported by Synopsys, Cadence and ARM. Data streams are secured by Arista Networks, Cisco and Equinix. The computing basis is created in the cloud by Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. Albemarle, Lynas and Umicore play a central role in raw materials and battery materials. These companies monetize their customers' investment waves, have high barriers to entry, service revenues and pricing power, but remain cyclical with risks from export rules, capex cuts and currency movements.

🌐 Value chain of humanoid robots Sector overview

1. research & chip design (IP / EDA)

$ARM (+2.23%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures

$SNPS (-0.95%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - Chip design software

$CDNS (+1.11%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - EDA & Simulation

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (-1.39%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography, key monopoly

$AMAT (-0.2%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Process equipment

$8035 (-3.37%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Wafer equipment

$KEYS (+1.98%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Test & RF measurement technology

$6857 (+1.97%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test systems

$TER (-0.22%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + robotics (Universal Robots)

3. chip production (Foundries)

$TSM (-0.2%)
TSMC (TSM, TW) - Largest contract manufacturer

$005930
Samsung Electronics (005930.KQ, KR) - Memory + Foundry

$GFS (-0.74%)
GlobalFoundries (GFS, USA) - Specialized production

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (-0.14%)
Nvidia (NVDA, USA) - GPUs, AI accelerators

$INTC (+0.45%)
Intel (INTC, USA) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (-0.8%)
AMD (AMD, USA) - CPUs/GPUs

$MRVL (+0.49%)
Marvell Technology (MRVL, USA) - Network/data center chips

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (-0.94%)
Sony (6758.T, JP) - CMOS image sensors

$6861 (-0.23%)
Keyence (6861.T, JP) - Vision systems, sensors

$STM (+0%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - MEMS sensors

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (-0.84%)
Infineon (IFX, DE) - Power semiconductors, SiC

$ON (-0.92%)
N Semiconductor (ON, USA) - SiC/Power Chips

$STM (+0%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - Motor control & power

$TXN (+0.57%)
Texas Instruments (TXN, USA) - Motor control, power ICs

$ADI (+1.92%)
Analog Devices (ADI, USA) - Energy & BMS chips

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (-0.11%)
Qualcomm (QCOM, USA) - 5G/SoCs

$AVGO (+0.09%)
Broadcom (AVGO, USA) - Network & radio chips

$SWKS (-0.43%)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, USA) - RF components

8. energy supply

$300750
CATL (300750.SZ, CN) - Batteries

$6752 (-0.02%)
Panasonic (6752.T, JP) - Batteries for automotive/robotics

$373220
LG Energy Solution (373220.KQ, KR) - Batteries

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (-0.39%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS

$MSFT (+0.14%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure

$GOOG (+0.66%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud

$EQIX (-1.09%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data center operator

$ANET (+0.84%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - Network infrastructure

$CSCO (+0.25%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Edge & Data Center Networks

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (-0.48%)
Palantir (PLTR, USA) - Data integration, decision software

$DDOG (+1.04%)
Datadog (DDOG, USA) - Cloud monitoring / observability

$SNOW (+0.38%)
Snowflake (SNOW, USA) - Cloud-native data platform

$ORCL (-0.43%)
Oracle (ORCL, USA) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (-0.83%)
SAP (SAP, DE) - ERP/cloud systems

$PATH (-0.43%)
UiPath (PATH, USA) - Automation software (RPA)

$AI (-0.34%)
C3.ai (AI, USA) - Enterprise AI platform

11. end applications / robots

$ABB
ABB (ABB, CH) - Industrial robots

$6954 (-1.08%)
Fanuc (6954.T, JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$TSLA (-0.69%)
Tesla (TSLA, USA) - Optimus" humanoid robot

$9618 (+0.45%)
JD.com (JD, CN) - E-commerce & automated logistics

🛠️ Shovel manufacturer for humanoid robots

🔹 Hardtech (physical "shovels")

These companies provide the material basis: manufacturing machines, raw materials, semiconductor base.

Semiconductor Equipment & Manufacturing

$ASML (-1.39%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography (monopoly).

$AMAT (-0.2%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Wafer equipment.

$8035 (-3.37%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Process equipment.

Test systems (hardware-side)

$6857 (+1.97%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test.

$TER (-0.22%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + industrial robots.

Materials & raw materials

$ALB (+0.95%)
Albemarle (ALB, USA) - Lithium (batteries).

$LYC (+6.22%)
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX, AUS) - Rare earths for magnets.

$UMICY (-1.82%)
Umicore (UMI.BR, BE) - Cathode materials, recycling.

🔹 Soft/infra (digital "shovels")

These companies supply the infrastructure & toolswithout which development, training and operation would be impossible.

Design Software & IP

$SNPS (-0.95%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - EDA software.

$CDNS (+1.11%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - Chip design & simulation.

$ARM (+2.23%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures (license model).

Test & Measurement (software/signal level)

$KEYS (+1.98%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Electronics & RF test systems.

Network & data center backbone

$ANET (+0.84%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - High-speed networks.

$CSCO (+0.25%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Data center/edge networks.

$EQIX (-1.09%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data centers (colocation).

Cloud infrastructure

$AMZN (-0.39%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS (cloud, AI training).

$MSFT (+0.14%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure.

$GOOG (+0.66%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud.

Takeaway: Investing in the infrastructure stack allows you to participate in the robotics trend regardless of the subsequent product winner and reduces the individual product risk, but you have to live with cycles. In your opinion, which stage of the chain offers the best risk/return combination and fits into a disciplined portfolio?

Source: Own analysis based on publicly available company information and IR materials of the companies mentioned.

After the last highly speculative trade with the discount certificate on $AMD (-0.8%) went very well and is still going strong, today there is a similarly lucrative opportunity on $COIN (-0.94%) .

Around 400% is possible here until December. Of course, this certificate is well out of the money, otherwise there would not be this opportunity! But anyone who believes that $COIN (-0.94%) will recover from the small slump and soar to new heights, this is a good opportunity.

I have risked a small position. Maybe I'll add to it again, even if the potential return is then somewhat lower. Incidentally, the maximum amount of 5$ is available if $COIN (-0.94%) rises to 440$ by December. The certificate is worthless below 390$ on the key date. In between, the certificate is paid out in $ at a ratio of 10:1.

These shares reached a new 52-week high today:

Meta $META (-0.56%)

Broadcom $AVGO (+0.09%)

AMD $AMD (-0.8%)

Blackrock $BLK (-0.97%)

Astera Labs $ALAB

Arista Networks $ANET (+0.84%)

Reddit $RDDT (-0.01%)

Lam Research $LRCX (-0.18%)

KLA Corp $KLAC (-1.03%)

S&P Global $SPGI (-0.14%)

Celsius $CELH

United Rentals $URI (-0.93%)

Do you hold one of the shares? If yes, congratulations!

Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs once again saw significant transactions on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, with a focus on technology and biotech stocks. The largest transaction of the day was the purchase of 738,367 shares of The Trade Desk Inc ( $TTD (+0.04%) ) with a total value of $39,266,357. This move underscores ARK's continued confidence in the digital advertising platform, where the fund had already significantly increased its positions in recent days.

Another notable transaction involved Block Inc ( $SQ (+0.02%) ), formerly known as Square. Here ARK sold 215,543 shares, representing a sizable value of $15,741,105. This sale represents one of the larger divestitures of the day and could indicate a strategic realignment of ARK's position towards the financial services and digital payments company.

ARK also made a significant purchase of 643,406 shares of Pinterest Inc ( $PINS ) worth $21,998,051. The social media company has repeatedly been in ARK's focus in the past, as evidenced by the continuous purchases over the past week. This trend points to a bullish assessment of Pinterest's growth prospects on the part of ARK.

In the biotech sector, ARK's ARK ETF purchased 128,896 shares of CRISPR Therapeutics AG ( $CRSP (-0.66%) ) for a total value of $714,567, continuing its investment in the gene-editing company. On the flip side, various ARK ETFs divested shares of DraftKings Inc ( $DKNG (+1.12%) ), Guardant Health Inc ( $GH (+5.52%) ), Robinhood Markets Inc ($HOOD (+1.07%) ), Palantir Technologies Inc ($PLTR (-0.48%) ), Roblox Corp ( $RBLX ) and Shopify Inc ($SHOP (-0.15%) ). The largest sell-off was DraftKings, with 221,203 shares worth $9,452,004 sold.

Other notable buys included Exact Sciences Corp ( $EXAS (-0.07%) ) and Personalis Inc ( $PSNL (+0.5%) ). ARK bought 93,753 and 134,035 shares worth $3,835,435 and $603,157 respectively. The continued purchases in these stocks could indicate a focused strategy targeting innovative healthcare companies.

Smaller transactions were also part of the day's activity. ARK bought shares in Compass Pathways PLC ( $CMPS (+5.08%) ) and 10X Genomics Inc ( $TXG (-1.14%) ). Despite the smaller dollar amounts, these purchases could be part of a long-term strategy that focuses on up-and-coming companies in the respective sectors.

Some of dear Cathie's transactions don't need to be understood but well, the young lady's returns speak for themselves.

$ARKK (+0.21%) and $ARKF (-0.12%) over 70% return since 365 days, I can only shine with +27% with my portfolio.

I will remain invested in $TTD (+0.04%) My current portfolio has a lot of risk, as I have generated some cash.

At the moment I'm considering whether I should possibly $HMWO (-0.02%) and $EQQQ (+0.07%) or just the $VUSA (+0.1%) into the portfolio.

Temporarily sold $AMD (-0.8%) +35%, $HIMS (+0.83%) +15%, $DOCN (+0.35%) +9%.

I would re-enter Hims and AMD at certain prices and possibly add other companies to the portfolio if they fit my selection.

My positions:

$SOFI (+3.62%)

$ZETA (+0.96%)

$TTD (+0.04%)

On the watchlist

$DDOG (+1.04%)

$LNTH (+4.43%)

$LMND (+0.96%)

$TOST (+0.44%)

$DASH (+0.39%)

$BROS

$APLD (+0.74%)

$SCI (+0.69%)

Why this is bullish:

💼 Market access remains intact

• Instead of a total ban $NVDA (-0.14%) & $AMD (-0.8%) can continue to supply chips to China - including slimmed-down high-end AI models such as H20 & A800.

⚡ Presumed quid pro quo:

🚚 Relaxation of the export bans - certain chips may be officially exported again.

⏱ Faster approvals - less bureaucracy, more predictability.

📅 Planning security - Fixed framework instead of constantly new lists of bans.

💰 Doubly positive:

• For Nvidia & AMD: market worth billions remains open.
• For the USA: billions in additional revenue - without new debt.

📉 Negative in the short term - opportunity in the long term

• Many investors see the levy as a burden → Share price falls in the short term.
• In the long term the advantage of secure market access prevails.
• My take: Such dips are often golden buying opportunities for the patient. 🛒💎

📈 Market reaction:

Investors thinking beyond the day see: 15% is a small price to pay for 85% of one of the world's largest sales markets.

💡 Conclusion:

Better 85% of China than 0% - and with Washington as a partner behind you, markets can be served more securely.

Subscribe to the podcast so that the broadcasting fee is abolished.

00:00:00 Hims & Hers $HIMS (+0.83%)

00:46:00 AMD $AMD (-0.8%)
$NVDA (-0.14%)
$INTC (+0.45%)

01:25:50 Nebius $NBIS (-1.3%)

01:51:40 Palantir documentary in the ARD media library: https://shorturl.at/clpFU
$PLTR (-0.48%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/07MenPFK3TWG97ZL0inGGw?si=ATBk85b4TG6c5ki2DF9wtQ

YouTube

https://youtu.be/JKk8FmRyKT8

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/107-hims-hers-amd-nebius-palantir-doku-in-der-ard-mediathek/id1695869891?i=1000721566528

🍊😱🍊😱 $NVDA (-0.14%)
$AMD (-0.8%)

Nvidia and AMD must pay a portion of their sales of AI accelerators directly to the US government. Such a direct levy is unprecedented.

Nvidia and AMD must give the US government 15 percent of the revenue from AI accelerator sales in China. This was reported by the British Financial Times, citing informed circles, including from the US government. The unusual levy is a quid pro quo for the granting of export licenses for the Chinese market last week.

The US representative told the newspaper that Nvidia had agreed to give up 15 percent of revenue from H20 sales in China. AMD would hand over the same percentage from sales of the MI308 accelerators. According to experts, such a sales levy to a government is unprecedented.

The US Department of Commerce began issuing H20 export licenses on 8 August 2025, two days after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with US President Donald Trump. In April, the Trump administration imposed a ban on H20 exports to China.

Nvidia confirms sales deal with Trump

When asked, Nvidia told the Financial Times: "We are following the US government's rules for our participation in the global market."

Analysts at investment firm Bernstein estimate that Nvidia sold around 1.5 million H20 chips to China in 2025, generating sales of around 23 billion US dollars. Nvidia lost 15 billion US dollars due to stricter export restrictions to China, Huang said in May.

AMD declared in January 2025 that the margin in the second quarter would be lower at 43 percent. The reason for this was an inventory correction of USD 800 million due to export restrictions on AI hardware. This related to the MI308 accelerators adapted for China.

https://www.golem.de/news/ki-beschleuniger-nvidia-und-amd-muessen-mit-us-regierung-china-umsaetze-teilen-2508-199015.html