Lilium Stock Forum

25.10.2024

Lilium subsidiaries have to file for insolvency + Shop Apotheke and DocMorris pick up + US parcel service UPS earns more than expected + Bilfinger shares under pressure after tragedy in the USA

After the end of state support, Lilium announces Lilium $LILM (-7.32%) announces that its most important subsidiaries will file for bankruptcy. The air cab developer's share price then plummets by more than 58 percent.....

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/aktien-von-lilium-mit-kurseinbruch-tochtergesellschaften-muessen-insolvenz-anmelden-a-c4e2581f-d5c9-4b8f-b60e-77e4051371ec

On Thursday, market observers pointed to positive signals in a court case involving mail-order pharmacies in the landmark proceedings over price discounts on prescription drugs. The shares of Redcare Pharmacy $RDC (-4.88%) extended their gains by up to five percent and were still up by almost four percent in the afternoon. The competitor DocMorris $DOCM (-4.22%)which at times extended its gains in Zurich to more than ten percent. DocMorris shares thus recovered strongly from the most recent low since June 2023. Redcare shares continued their recent rally. They have gained almost 30 percent since mid-September. However, they once again encountered resistance at the EUR 150 mark. Analyst Thomas Rothäusler from Jefferies pointed out that an attorney general had issued a final opinion in proceedings in which DocMorris is taking on the North Rhine Chamber of Pharmacists. This opinion was very clearly in favor of bonuses on prescription drugs. According to Rothäusler, the final result is likely to have a significant impact on the future growth of online pharmacies. According to the expert, the final ruling of the European Court of Justice is expected in the next two to three months.

The US parcel service UPS $UPS (-0.22%) earned a surprisingly high profit in the third quarter thanks to good business and the sale of a subsidiary. The bottom line was a profit of a good 1.5 billion US dollars (1.4 billion euros), around 37 percent more than a year earlier, as United Parcel Service (UPS) announced in Atlanta on Thursday. Even without the special effect, this was more than analysts had expected on average. For the year as a whole, however, CEO Carol Tomé is now expecting lower turnover because the sold subsidiary Coyote Logistics is no longer included in the figures. According to Tomé, the Group's turnover is only expected to reach around 91.1 billion dollars in 2024. She had previously forecast 93 billion. However, before special effects, a larger share of turnover is expected to remain as operating profit at UPS. The manager is therefore expecting an adjusted operating margin of around 9.6 percent. Previously, she had assumed 9.4 percent. In the third quarter, UPS reported a turnover of 22.2 billion dollars, 5.6 percent more than a year earlier. This was about as much as analysts had expected on average.

The collapse of a ferry dock in the USA caused the shares of Bilfinger $GBF (+2.1%) shares on Thursday. The share price fell by 6.8 percent to 46.25 euros. If this remains the case, it would be the biggest daily loss in almost two years. In a letter of condolence, Group CEO Thomas Schulz and the head of the US subsidiary Centennial Contractors Enterprises, Geoff Preisman, expressed their deepest sympathy to the families of seven people who reportedly lost their lives in the collapse of a ferry dock on October 19. The accident occurred on the island of Sapelo off the coast of the US state of Georgia. Centennial acted as the general contractor for the construction of the dock and pier in question, the statement continued. The company worked with local subcontractors and suppliers to complete the project in November 2021. Should Centennial, as the general contractor, have to assume liability for the accident, a payment of an estimated 50 to 100 million euros is imminent, said a stock market analyst. This scenario is weighing on the Bilfinger share price.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Fastenal USD 0.39

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:00 Colgate-Palmolive Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

06:30 Sika quarterly figures | Holcim | SGS Trading Update 3Q

07:00 Mercedes-Benz | Stratec | Signify quarterly figures | Safran sales 3Q

07:30 Sanofi quarterly figures | Remy Cointreau Q2 sales

07:45 Eni quarterly figures

08:00 Yara quarterly figures | Mercedes-Benz analyst conference

09:00 Holcim analyst and press conference

09:15 Mercedes-Benz PK

14:00 Sanofi Analyst Conference

17:30 Porsche AG quarterly figures and press conference

Economic data

01:30 JP: Consumer prices Greater Tokyo October core rate (ex food)

FORECAST: +1.7% yoy previously: +2.0% yoy

08:45 FR: Consumer Confidence October FORECAST: 95 previous: 95

10:00 DE: ifo Business Climate Index October PROGNOSE: 85.6 PREVIOUS: 85.4 Situation assessment PROGNOSE: 84.3 PREVIOUS: 84.4 Business expectations

PROGNOSE: 87.0 PREVIOUS: 86.3

10:00 EU: ECB - October consumer survey results | Publication of consumer survey results | ECB, M3 money supply and lending September M3 money supply FORECAST: +3.0% yoy previously: +2.9% yoy

14:30 US: New orders for durable goods September

PROGNOSE: -1.0% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy

16:00 US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (2nd survey) October

FORECAST: 69.0 1st survey: 68.9 previous: 70.1

Lilium
$LILM (-7.32%) the Bavarian 🇩🇪 developer of air cabs, is planning to file for file for insolvencyafter efforts to obtain state support failed.

The application is to be submitted to the German courts in the coming days, with the company hoping for self-administration proceedings.

Lilium has been working on electrical vertical take-off vehiclesbut is facing considerable delays and financial bottlenecks. In the first half of the year, the company burned through 190 million euros.

A planned state guarantee for50 million euros was rejected. -Handelsblatt

Photo: Lilium.com

$LILM (-7.32%) And another Frank Thelen star goes bankrupt.

Tadaaaa! 100 followers ... thank you!

(Must be my $LILM (-7.32%) -comments. Or $TSLA (-3.16%) )

No state aid for $LILM (-7.32%) !

Once again you can see what the Greens are like. According to reports, it was mainly the Greens who rejected state aid for the start-up company. $LILM (-7.32%) for the start-up company.

The result will be that $LILM (-7.32%) Germany will turn its back and emigrate. It has been shown time and again that innovation has no future in Germany and that the country will continue to lose its inventive spirit.

Here's to the future!

$LILM (-7.32%) State funding probably off the table. Does this mean the company is insolvent?

Are there short options?

https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/kein-geld-vom-bund-fuer-flugshuttle-tech-unternehmen-vor-dem-aus-6710d1e8e9471210bb6a7a47

The Bavarian air cab manufacturer Lilium
$LILM (-7.32%) receives no funding from the federal budget 🇩🇪.

Although Bavaria 50 million euros in support, the traffic light parties rejected the co-funding. co-financing by the federal government.

The reason for this is doubts about the company's long-term liquidity.

FDP-politician Frank Schäffler considers the risk for the federal government to be too high and calls for Bavaria to bear the support alone. Minister President Markus Söder criticizes the decision as putting Bavaria at a disadvantage, as other technologies in the north would be subsidized. -FAZ

Photo: Credit: -/Lilium/dpa Copyright: (c) Lilium

This week could already be decisive for $LILM (-7.32%) the future.

Stock analysis: Lilium Aviation - $LILM (-7.32%)

1. general company profile:

Lilium Aviation is a German company specializing in the development of electrically powered vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL). Lilium's goal is to revolutionize urban air transport - more specifically, air transport between two cities - and to offer a sustainable, efficient transport solution. The focus is on an emission-free and cost-effective mobility platform that is intended to be an alternative to conventional means of transportation and save a considerable amount of time.

Current situation:

Lilium is currently in the development phase and the first commercial air service is targeted for 2026. The stock is traded on NASDAQ under the ticker "LILM" and is one of the companies active in the "Urban Air Mobility" (UAM) sector, an emerging market segment with potentially high growth.

2. fundamental key figures

Lilium is still in the pre-revenue phase, i.e. the company has not yet generated any significant sales. This is typical for companies in the development of innovative technologies. It is therefore important not to focus on traditional valuation ratios such as the price/earnings ratio (P/E ratio), but also on the financing situation and the progress of product development.

- Market capitalization~600 million USD (as of September 2024)

- Turnover: Currently no significant turnover as the company is still in the development phase

- Cash burn rateLilium is currently burning large sums of money to advance the development and certification of its aircraft. According to the last quarterly report, the company still had enough capital for about 12-18 months, which means a constant risk in terms of future capital increases.

- DebtLilium has taken on moderate debt to finance its research and development activities. The debt to equity ratio is relatively high given the business model and the capital intensive nature of the sector. A fundamental valuation based on key figures such as the P/E ratio or P/E ratio is currently not possible as the company is not yet generating profits. It is more important to analyze liquidity, progress in development and market potential.

3. market situation

The market for electrically powered air cabs (eVTOLs) is still in its infancy and is expected to grow strongly. Global urbanization, increasing traffic volumes and the drive towards sustainable mobility solutions create an attractive basis for companies such as Lilium. Macroeconomic factors: However, economic uncertainty and rising interest rates could make it more difficult for Lilium to raise capital. At the same time, high regulatory hurdles and slow adoption of nationwide regulations for eVTOL transportation could push back the timeline for commercialization. Technical analysis:

- Price development:

Lilium's stock has experienced a significant downtrend since its IPO (via SPAC) as the initial hype over the eVTOL sector has leveled off. This reflects the market's general distrust of speculative technology companies that have yet to show revenues or profits.

- Chart patternChart pattern : There are currently no stable technical support levels visible, suggesting that the price could remain volatile. The stock is below its moving averages (50-day and 200-day), indicating continued weakness.

- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicates an oversold situation, which could allow for a technical recovery in the short term, but without structural improvement in fundamentals.

4. risk/reward ratio

• Opportunities:

- Technological leadershipLilium has positioned itself as one of the leading companies in eVTOL technology and could gain a significant competitive advantage if commercialization is successful.

- Market potentialThe market for Urban Air Mobility is estimated to have a potential of several billion dollars and Lilium could become a major player in this field, especially in Europe and North America.

- Sustainability trendThe global trend towards zero-emission mobility is a strong driver for the long-term demand for such solutions.

• Risks:

- Raising capital: Lilium will require significant funding in the coming years to complete development and commercialize the aircraft. Any delay could complicate financing and lead to dilutive effects.

- Regulatory hurdles: Certification and approval of eVTOLs could be complex and time consuming, which could push back the market entry date.

- Competition: There are numerous competitors in the eVTOL sector, including Archer Aviation, Joby Aviation and Vertical Aerospace, which are also making significant progress. It is unclear which company will ultimately become the market leader.

5. profitability calculation:

In order to make a profitability calculation for Lilium Aviation in the years 2028 to 2040, we need to make some assumptions and calculations. This calculation takes into account the increase in production, the prices of the jets and the expected running costs.

Assumptions

1. production targets:

• Year 2028: 100 jets
• From 2029, production will be increased by 20-30 % annually.

2. sales prices:

• Premium jet: € 10,000,000
• Standard jet: € 7,000,000
• More standard jets tend to be sold.

3. running costs (here I have oriented myself to the industry)

• Assumption: The running costs (production, operation, administration, etc.) amount to 60% of revenue.

4. ratio of sales:

• Based on current letters of intent and the market, it is assumed that 30% premium jets and 70% standard jets will be sold in the first few years.

5. production and sales forecast:

• Here are the annual production figures taking into account an annual increase of 20-30%. I will use a moderate increase of 25% for the calculation.

Profitability calculation:

• Year Jets Turnover Cost. Profit
• 2028 100 790mio. 474million 316million

• 2030 1561,233million 740million 493million

• 2035 4763,761million 2,256million 1,504million

• 2040 1453 11,479million 6,887million4,591million

- Lilium Aviation shows significant potential for revenue growth, assuming production targets are met and the market for eVTOLs remains stable.

- The calculation suggests that Lilium may be able to operate with positive net results from 2028 onwards, with profitability increasing significantly over time.

- However, investors should keep an eye on the risks related to capital raising and market development.

Conclusion

Lilium Aviation is an innovative company in a fast-growing sector, but also one with significant risks. The lack of short-term revenues, the high capital commitment and the uncertainties regarding commercialization make the share a speculative investment. Recommendation: For risk-tolerant investors who believe in the long-term future of Urban Air Mobility, Lilium could be an exciting option with high upside potential.

However, the position should be kept small due to the high level of uncertainty. The share is probably not suitable for more conservative investors who value stable business models and reliable income.

However, I personally see more opportunities than risks here, which is why the share is a "BUY" for me.

Toyota sees potential in air cabs.

$7203 (+0.6%)

In Germany $LILM (-7.32%) on the brink of insolvency.

Perhaps a German car manufacturer will be found 🙈.

https://www.electrive.net/2024/10/05/toyota-investiert-500-millionen-us-dollar-in-flugtaxi-startup-joby/