Traton Stock Forum

As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the most important news from the past week.

The dates as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Zvoh_ATJ8eU?si=HFvc8sRUsi38eXJf

Monday:

The ECB seems to have made the right decision last week. In Germany, producer prices fall for the 15th time in a row. This time more than expected. Producer prices fell by 1.4 %, 1.0 % had been expected. Energy in particular became cheaper. The price of other products even rose by an average of 1.5%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-rueckgang-der-deutschen-erzeugerpreise-beschleunigt-sich/100081404.html

The truck subsidiary of VW, $8TRA (-1.9%) Traton, can report a significantly better operating result than expected. The net cash flow is also developing strongly. VW holds just under 90% of Traton. Business is particularly good in the USA.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/auto-vw-lkw-holding-traton-macht-bessere-geschaefte-als-gedacht/100081595.html

$SAP (-0.16%) SAP earns strongly and raises its forecast. Sales increased by 10% to 8.5 billion euros in the third quarter, while profits rose by 28% to 2.28 billion euros. This growth is primarily due to AI applications in the cloud division, which are in demand from customers.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/softwarekonzern-sap-gewinn-steigt-um-28-prozent-und-bringt-konzern-ins-dilemma/100081365.html

Tuesday:

After the stop at $INTC (-2.95%) Intel, now the stop at the next highly subsidized chip factory in Saarland. ZF, a domestic company, was even supposed to invest here together with the US company Wolfspeed. ZF is now pulling out of the billion-euro project. Once again it is clear that a planned economy does not work. Subsidized settlements are not a sustainable location policy.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/zf-autozulieferer-zieht-sich-aus-wolfspeed-chipfabrik-im-saarland-zurueck/100081423.html

The IMF has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for Germany. This year will probably see stagnation. Growth of 0.8 % is still expected next year. By comparison, Spain is expected to grow by 2.9 % this year. The biggest problems are well known. Too much bureaucracy, too high a tax burden and too much austerity on the part of the state. In such a situation, the state should actually invest more (infrastructure, education, etc.) instead of making savings. However, competitiveness must also be increased.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/weltwirtschaft-iwf-prognose-sieht-deutschland-weiter-als-wachstumsschlusslicht/100079427.html

The $MCD (-0.74%) McDonald's share price plummeted after it became known that E. coli cases were probably attributable to it. Yesterday, McDonald's was still in the headlines for Donald Trump's appearance.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

The Bank of Canada is accelerating its interest rate cuts. The key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points on Wednesday. This leaves the interest rate at 3.75%. The central bank now wants growth again now that inflation rates are back in line.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7360509

Thursday:

The Purchasing Managers' Index in Germany has risen surprisingly sharply. Both the Bundesbank and the IMF expect Germany to stagnate in 2024. The purchasing managers' index figures could point to an upturn. The index rose to 48.4 points, while economists were only expecting 47.6 points. However, the index only signals growth above 50 points ...

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/einkaufsmanagerindex-talfahrt-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-gestoppt/100082484.html

Good figures from $RNO (+0.69%) Renault and also $TSLA (-6.59%) Tesla are driving car stocks higher today. Renault was able to increase sales thanks to new models. Although Tesla achieved lower sales than expected, its profits were impressive thanks to cost savings.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-renault-steigert-umsatz-mit-vielen-neuen-modellen-siltronic-leidet-unter-schwacher-nachfrage/24098412.html

Friday:

$MBG (-0.93%) Mercedes suffers from weak sales in China. Profits plummet by more than 50% in the third quarter. The return on sales falls below 5%. This puts the company on a par with core brand VW. In any case, too little for a luxury group. At least the cash flow is improving.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-gewinn-von-mercedes-benz-bricht-um-54-prozent-ein/100081520.html

$HFG (+0.3%) Hellofresh delivers Q3 figures that are well above market expectations. Due to the high short ratio, there may now be a short squeeze here. Sales increased by 1.9% to 1.8 billion euros. AEBITDA amounted to 72 million euros, 30 million euros more than expected. Hellofresh lowers its sales forecast but raises its AEBITDA forecast for the full year.

https://stock3.com/news/hellofresh-q3-ebitda-deutlich-ueber-markterwartung-aktie-steigt-deutlich-15599996

Following the Purchasing Managers' Index, the ifo Index also rises surprisingly strongly. The index rose from 85.4 to 86.5 points. Economists had only expected an increase to 85.6 points. The current business situation is therefore being viewed more positively again by managers.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-ifo-index-steigt-unerwartet-kraeftig/100082816.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:00 House price index (USA)

Wednesday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)

Thursday: 04:00 BoJ interest rate decision (Japan)

What other important dates can you think of?

#immos#inflation#boj

Margin call 🫣✌🏼

Edit:

I'll add to my post as many have asked.

-I set up the deposit credit to have capital available for short trades without having to sell other shares. I generally only use it for short periods.

-You have to earn interest + the tax on top if you pay 7% interest and have 7% profit, I pay capital tax on top.

-My securities account, which currently consists of Nvidia, Stallantis, hims and small individual positions, serves as collateral for the bank.

-With the deposit credit I have call options for $8TRA (-1.9%) and a smaller part call $NVDA (+2.32%) bought. Half of the options have already been sold, so I have some breathing space again

-I have not yet received a classic margin call, but I have seen it legendarily in the overview. The credit line was overdrawn because Nvidia lost some of its value yesterday evening.

-The gamble paid off, but it was insane 🫣

-Knok-out-NVIDIA I own for now until the B-100 comes out or the 1000$ are reached.

-Traon calls will go out in full tomorrow and are up 200% thanks to the positive quarterly figures 🤝

-How I came up with it, I just copied what happened at Daimler Truck this Friday, little joke, I've been keeping a close eye on the share since I bought it ek 15.xx

Good morning dear diary,

Yesterday I received a very constructive criticism from @California_Dreamin yesterday. Thank you for that! Before I should have gone into individual positions, I should perhaps have briefly described my approach in 2023 and especially in the last three months - that's roughly how long I've been with gq 😉.

I was planning to clean up my portfolio of the various individual stocks - mostly between 5 and 15, i.e. sometimes much fewer than many others here - and switch almost completely to ETFs.

Now, of course, a few positions were "green" and others "red". So I initially said goodbye to the positions that were green or those where I definitely no longer saw any potential for a good end.

However, every now and then I get the urge to buy individual stocks that I think could achieve >10% in the next few weeks. These are usually worth around 2k-4k and hopefully lead to success.

There are two different categories:

small caps or penny stocks mentioned in widely read. I have usually done quite well with these... Believe hardly any losses in the last 3 years... Maybe more luck than sense 🤣Stocks with a good div yield that I believe are currently on an upward trend. Currently $DTE (-1.97%) and $2914

I would like to part with in the near future: $8TRA (-1.9%)
$MBG (-0.93%) and the DWS fund.

$BAS (-3.65%) I will probably at least reduce 😊

Definition of "near future": I have no stress... and as long as I assume that I will see my purchase price again, the stocks pay a good dividend, I would now need your arguments as to why I should sell them more quickly at a loss. As friendly advice, of course, and not investment advice 😉

At some point, my portfolio should look like this:

~50% world ETF

~25% dividend ETF

~25% selected individual stocks

Maybe this will shed some light on the dark!

Thanks again @California_Dreamin ! Your comment has hopefully saved me from more confused diary entries 😘

$8TRA (-1.9%) hello which position would you increase. Buy and hold ✌️

#exchangetradedeveryday

Stock exchange company in the scrap yard !

My father and I run a scrap yard with 14 employees.

We are more or less like the Ludolfs... only in a professional way.

In my l200 pickup from $8058 (-1.08%) it goes then first on our depot.

In the office then the computer and monitor of $6702 (-1.79%) turned on and $MSFT (+1.59%) started. For my daily computing tasks, I am supported by my calculator from $6753 (+6.59%)

Since we are also controlled in contrast to German authorities we lead a digital bookkeeping. Via my scanner from$7751 (-1.59%) all receipts that still come with the $DPW (-1.76%) are digitized.

Since we are in charge of 2 large stamping productions and a lot of manufacturing business, we of course need a corresponding fleet of vehicles.

Two trucks from$8TRA (-1.9%) and one from $DTG (-0.12%) are constantly in use for us. The bodies from $PAL (-1.28%) work quite well most of the time ... but unfortunately the quality is disappointing more often.

The phone rings... $TKA (-0.29%) calls the container at their production site must be changed because otherwise the machines stand still ... The construction site of $HOT (-0.22%) must also be finished soon.

Over my $AAPL (+0.17%) Iphone I am constantly available for my customers. How was it with self-employed ? Self and constantly.

Next call. Scrap metal that we sent by truck to the export warehouse was refused for the time being. The radioactive measuring system of $TMO (-0.8%) has failed. This will be another expensive operation.

We have more great machines, but unfortunately they are not from companies listed on the stock exchange.

Our fleet includes 3 Sennebogen handling excavators and a Lindemann scrap shear.

With the scrap shear we are able to press different types of scrap and bring it to a certain size to make it suitable for charging.

This scrap is then delivered directly by us to steel mills.

And even in the scrap trade, one encounters numerous exchange-traded companies on a daily basis.

Quarterly figures from 28.10.2022...

...and then off into the weekend!⤵️

The last interesting numbers for this week have been reported. Next week will come mainly the European companies. This morning I have already pointed out what will come so:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/cXypzTmLZM?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Let's take a look at it in summary:

$JKS (-5.32%)
JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.71 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.90. Revenue of $2.74 billion exceeded expectations of $2.6 billion.

$ABBV (-1.82%)
AbbVie Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $3.66 beat analyst estimates of $3.58. Revenue of $14.81 billion below expectations of $14.93 billion.

$NEE (-1.95%)
Nextera Energy Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.85 beat analyst estimates of $0.79. Revenue of $6.72 billion exceeded expectations of $5.96 billion.

$CL (+0.42%)
Colgate-Palmolive Co:

Hits analyst estimates with third-quarter earnings per share of $0.74. Sales of $4.46 billion below expectations of $4.48 billion.

$CHD (+0.44%)
Church & Dwight Co. Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.76 beat analyst estimates of $0.65. Revenue of $1.32 billion exceeded expectations of $1.3 billion.

$XOM (+0.22%)
Exxon Mobil Corp:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $4.45 beat analyst estimates of $3.67. Revenue of $112.07 billion beat expectations of $107.24 billion. High gas and oil prices boosted.

$P911 (-1.04%)
Volkswagen subsidiary Porsche:

Posts Q1-3 sales of €26.7 billion (PY: €23.1 billion), operating profit of €5.05 billion (PY: €3.56 billion), outlook for 2022 and beyond confirmed.

$8TRA (-1.9%)
Volkswagen subsidiary TRATON:

Achieves Q1-3 sales of €27.96 billion (PY: €21.31 billion), unit sales of 218,000 vehicles (PY: 196,000 vehicles) and an operating profit of €954 million (PY: €476 million).

$VOW (-1.76%)
Volkswagen (VW):

Reports Q3 sales of €70.7 billion (PY: €56.9 billion, analyst forecast: €69.9 billion), adjusted EBIT of €4.27 billion (PY: €2.80 billion, forecast: €4.64 billion), an EBIT margin of 6.0% (PY: 4.9%, forecast: 6.6%) and profit after tax of €2.13 billion (PY: €2.90 billion). In the outlook for 2022, Volkswagen (VW) expects deliveries to remain at the prior-year level (previously: +5 to 10%). Sales and Ebit margin forecast for 2022 confirmed.

$WAF (+0%)
Siltronic:

Achieves Q3 sales of €474 million (PY: €371.6 million, analyst forecast: €456 million), Ebitda of €170.5 million (PY: €122.9 million, forecast: €135.3 million) and net income of €109.9 million (PY: €73.6 million). In its outlook for 2022, Siltronic raises its sales growth forecast to 26% to 30% (previous: 21% to 27%) and an Ebitda margin of 36% to 38% (previous: 34% to 37%).

$AIRC
Airbus:

Reports Q3 revenues of €13.309 billion (PY: €10.518 billion, analyst forecast: €12.848 billion), Ebit (adjusted) of €836 million (PY: €666 million, forecast: €887 million) and net profit of €667 million (PY: €404 million, forecast: €585 million). In the outlook for 2022, Airbus continues to expect approximately 700 commercial aircraft deliveries (forecast: 697 aircraft), Ebit (adjusted) of €5.5 billion (forecast: €5.487 billion) and free cash flow of €4.5 billion (previous: €3.5 billion).

#airbus
#quartalszahlen
#finanzen
#community
#communityfeedback

#news #newsroom
#aktien
#lernen

Traton seems to become favorable again. Personally, I see great potential in truck spades and especially in Traton with top brands like MAN and SCANIA, because freight traffic is increasing more and more and trucks will always be needed for domestic transport. I see the automobile industry more critically, because in inner cities more attention is paid to car sharing. A car stays somewhere for about 22 hours a day and consumes important parking space, etc. People will look more at having cars in constant rotation and use to make efficient use of space in inner cities. So if there is more car sharing, fewer cars will be needed worldwide. Sales and profits could suffer. One exception I see is VW.