The royalties market is set to accelerate its consolidation—here are my acquisition bets for the mid-cap players.

$TFPM (+0.44%)
Triple Flag → $VOXR
Vox Royalty (primary target)

• Geographic and jurisdictional fit: concentrated exposure to mining‑friendly regions in the Americas and Australia, consistent with TFPM’s stated focus.

• Near‑term growth and scalability: a deep inventory of royalties with catalysts into 2025–2027 that can scale TFPM’s GEOs without heavy G&A.

• Transaction practicality: size suits TFPM’s bolt‑on to mid‑sized deal sweet spot given liquidity and low leverage.

$OR (-1.91%)
Osisko → $GROY (-0.29%) Gold Royalty (primary target)

• North America reinforcement: OR’s strategy centers on Canada/U.S. ramp‑ups; GROY brings multiple anchors in those jurisdictions.

• Discipline and timing: 2025 guide weighted to H2 ramp‑ups; cleaner balance sheet supports selective, geography‑aligned M&A.

In the recent earnings call, $GROY (-0.29%) Gold Royalty CEO David Garofalo shared a compelling perspective on the future of the mining royalty space. Here are some key takeaways worth highlighting:

🔹 Consolidation is accelerating: Garofalo believes that consolidation is poised to pick up pace, supported by strong fundamentals in the gold price and the entrance of new, strategic players in the sector.

🔹 Non-traditional investors entering the market: A notable example is Tether, which—through a large stablecoin fund—has made a significant investment in a competitor (Elemental Altus Royalties). Their stated goal? To drive sector consolidation, deploy more capital, and potentially develop royalty-backed stablecoin products. This could represent a fascinating crossover between crypto and traditional asset streams.

🔹 Unlocking capital for small caps: These new inflows of capital could benefit smaller royalty players by enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility, helping them scale.

🔹 Efficiency gains through synergies: Garofalo estimates there’s between $50M and $75M in excess G&A costs among smaller cap players. Consolidation presents an opportunity to capture that value through operational efficiencies.

🔹 Gold Royalty’s strategic vision: The company aims to establish a strong mid-tier player—large and liquid enough to attract generalist equity investors but still nimble enough to outperform the slower-growing majors.

📊 Bottom line: we might be entering a new phase of accelerated M&A and innovation in the mining royalty space, backed not just by metals markets, but now also by crypto capital.

🔍 What’s your take? Strategic opportunity or short-term noise