... but pick it up when it's lying on the ground! This saying was my inspiration to enter $CNQ (-0.17%) yesterday with a small position. Small, because I am also "small" - in terms of capital, not spirit.

Why? $CNQ (-0.17%) ? For me it was a mixture of investing in a stable stock (which also pays a small dividend) and which lowers my BETA in the portfolio, but also the current political situation around the Strait of Hormuz - remember? There was something about a ceasefire and Iran somehow not wanting to stick to it after all?

Personally, I see $CNQ (-0.17%) in a good position either way, because: They will continue to produce oil and make money... if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open (which it doesn't look like it will in my estimation), the price of oil will rise again and the value of $CNQ (-0.17%) will presumably follow suit. If, as we all hope, there is peace in the box after all, the price of $CNQ (-0.17%) will nevertheless continue and presumably continue its upward trajectory comfortably, almost with stoic composure; after all, if you look at the fundamentals, the value is certainly a little undervalued...

What do you think of these theories? Are they the figments of an idiot's imagination or perhaps ideas that have some merit?

Bitcoin has caused a significant correction in the portfolio, which is nothing unusual given the high weighting.

In November, there were more purchases in the energy sector ($EQNR (+2.34%)
$AKRBP (+1.93%)
$CNQ (-0.17%) )

With $RHM (+0.98%) I also took advantage of the sell-off and now hold 15 shares.

In addition to Bitcoin, my overall allocation is still overweight in the AI, defense and energy (oil/gas) sectors.

Cash is at ~16%, with a downward trend.

That's it already!

Have a relaxed Tuesday evening 🍻

The world's hunger for energy is increasing and, according to the latest estimates, "peak oil" is further in the future than previously thought.

High geopolitical risks, artificially limited supply and robust demand = (in my opinion) a structurally bullish oil outlook.

Today I would like to introduce you to 3 stocks from the "hated" 🛢️Öl and natural gas sector.

Stock 1:

Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0.17%)

📍Overview of the company:

Canadian Natural Resources is a leading Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the production and processing of crude oil and natural gas.

Its business model includes the mining of bitumen oil sands and their processing into synthetic crude oil, conventional oil and NGL production as well as major natural gas production in Western Canada and selected offshore locations.

Geostrategically, CNQ benefits from a relatively stable regulatory environment in Canada and owns long-term, long-life production assets.

Analysts value the stock at a fair value of around $54-55, which suggests a moderate upside potential of close to +15-20% from the current price of around $47, assuming commodity prices and operating conditions remain stable.

💰Dividend yield (TTM): 5.187%

📈Notes on the chart:

What I like here is that $CNQ (-0.17%) has clearly broken the weekly downtrend to the upside.

The price is also above the volume POC, which should now form a support.

I am already invested and plan to buy on setbacks.

Share 2:

Suncor Energy $SU (-0.02%)

📍Overview of the company:

Suncor Energy is one of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, making its money primarily from oil sands production, processing into synthetic crude oil, and downstream operations such as refineries and a large Canadian service station network.

Thanks to its strong presence in the politically stable regions of Alberta and Ontario, Suncor is considered to have a relatively secure geostrategic position, as Canada is one of the most reliable oil supply countries and oil sand reserves can be extracted over an extremely long period of time.

Risks arise primarily from North American regulation and ESG pressure, rather than from geopolitical conflicts.

Analysts currently generally see the fair value of SU shares at around C$70-75, while the price on the TSX chart is around C$62 - this results in a moderate expected upside potential in the low double-digit percentage range, depending on oil prices and operating performance.

💰Dividend yield (TTM): 3.816%

📈Notes on the chart:

$SU (-0.02%) had a long sideways phase in which the price first consolidated at the ~C$47.2 resistance and for the entire past year at around ~C$55.

Now it looks as if the price has broken out of this range to the upside.

The next price target is the ATH from May 2008 (~C$73).

Here, too, I am already invested and continue to buy.

Share 3:

Aker BP ASA $AKRBP (+1.93%)

📍Overview of the company:

Aker BP ASA is one of the largest independent oil and gas producers in Norway and makes its money mainly through the production of crude oil and natural gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

The company operates several large fields such as Johan Sverdrup, Skarv, Valhall and Alvheim and is characterized by low production costs and high operational efficiency.

Geostrategically, Aker BP is considered very secure, as Norway is politically stable, has reliable regulation and the North Sea assets are not dependent on conflict zones - a clear advantage over many global producers.

Analysts are largely positive on Aker BP; consensus estimates see a fair value slightly above the current price level, supported by robust cash flows, high dividends and expected production increases.

Overall, Aker BP is seen as a high-quality, geostrategically stable oil stock whose valuation depends primarily on the long-term oil price.

💰Dividend yield (TTM): 10.05%

📈Notes on the chart:

Aker BP has successfully broken out of the downtrend since 2022 and is currently consolidating just above the long-term volume POC.

I am invested and will continue to buy if possible.

💬 Closing words

As of today, I am invested in the energy sector with 8.2% of my portfolio.

In addition to the stocks presented, I am also invested in $CVX (-0.5%) , $EQNR (+2.34%) , $OXY (+0.06%) , $TTE (+0.2%)

Do you have an "insider tip" from the energy sector that you would like to share? 🤔

In order to expand my share of the energy sector in Europe, I made my first purchase today. $TTE (+0.2%) bought today.

This means that the share of the energy sector in my portfolio is now just under 7%.

The last purchases were:

$SU (-0.02%)

$CNQ (-0.17%)

$EQNR (+2.34%)

$AKRBP (+1.93%)

After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (-2.81%) , BMW $BMW (-2.41%) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (-3.49%)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0.17%) Suncor Energy $SU (-0.02%)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (-0.34%)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (-1.19%) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html