Metaplanet

Further information, as I have read some skepticism here regarding the weakness of the share price:

Announcement from MERCURY: New Class B Perpetual Preferred Equity.

Details:

- Volume: 23.61 million shares at ¥900 per share = ¥21.25 billion gross (~$135-150 million USD)

- Dividend: 4.9% fixed (annual, cumulative; capped at 25% BTC NAV)

- Conversion: ¥1,000 strike price (convertible 1:1 into common shares)

- Placement: Private Third-Party Allotment to institutions (e.g. Nautical 40%, Smallcap World Fund 25%, Anson Funds 28%, Ghisallo 6.67%)

- Payment: December 29, 2025; TSE listing applied for

- Purpose100% proceeds (~¥20.4bn net) for BTC purchases (target: 100k BTC by end 2026, 210k by 2027)

https://x.com/metaplanet/status/1991456331908469153?s=46

So we have capital inflow that is not dilutive. Buyback program at MNAV below 1. Prospective inclusion in the Japanese index. Good market conditions in Japan. And crucially:

BTC yield > MNAV.

As long as this is the case, the investment thesis remains intact.

Of course, the price shows weakness when $BTC (-2.13%) shows weakness. In the long term, I am bullish on BTC. This is of course a basic prerequisite for an investment in a BTC treasury company.

I am also in the red, but the thesis is stronger than ever. Wait and see.

Metaplanet as a top candidate for the Topix (Tokyo Stock Price Index)

$3350 (-0.98%)

Selection is based on criteria such as free-float market capitalization. The first round will start in October 2026, followed by annual rebalancings (next: October 2028). This is part of the broader TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) reform, which aims to make the TOPIX more relevant by including stocks from prime, standard and growth markets.

The anticipation of index inclusion has a positive impact on the share prices of the candidates in advance, as investors (e.g. funds) position themselves early.

An exact rank of Metaplanet is not mentioned, but it is seen as a top candidate.

Grok estimates the probability of inclusion in the index at 70-80% with the following justification:

Criteria metMetaplanet has a free-float MCap of ~300-400 billion JPY (top 20-30 in the growth market), sufficient liquidity (daily volume >50 million shares) and fulfills the TSE reform standards (e.g. governance, profitability by Q3 revenue +100%).

- Market trendsReform targets ~200 new inclusions, prioritizes growth stocks such as Metaplanet (BTC treasury as "innovative sector"). Analysts (e.g. NLI Research) see it as "highly likely" as Mcap could rise by August 2026 with continued BTC growth (forecast: USD 120-150k).

- Risks (20-30% chance vs.): If Mcap falls (e.g. due to BTC correction or dilution), it could slip out of the list. X-Sentiment is bullish (e.g. "historic moment for BTC companies"), but skeptical on volatility.

The impact would be extremely positive through passive inflows, increased visibility, lower volatility and facilitated raises e.g. through prefs.