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The 10B model is my attempt to systematically identify tenbagger candidates. The aim is to find companies that realistically have the potential to grow tenfold over the next few years. Of course, this will only work for very few - but even one hit can shape a portfolio.
The basic rule: size matters. A tenbagger rarely starts at 200 billion market capitalization. The entry hurdle in the model is therefore less than 10 billion euros. Companies in the EUR 1-5 billion corridor are the most exciting because they still have growth potential but are no longer pure early-stage gambles.
I set up the screening with ChatGPT - for data collection, pre-filtering and peer comparisons. Exciting candidates are followed by manual checks: annual reports, management calls, competitive position, balance sheet quality.
Criteria (scoring 0-20 points each, 100 in total):
- Growth & profitability: strong sales growth (ideally > 20% p.a.) and progress in profitability. Ideally, the Rule of 40 (sales growth % + operating margin % > 40) is fulfilled.
- Moat: sustainable competitive advantage (technology, network effects, market access, regulation).
- Market size: addressable market ideally ≥ 10× current market capitalization.
- Financial stability: solid balance sheet, debt ratio < 3× EBITDA, sufficient cash buffer.
- Valuation & momentum: multiples vs. growth, downside scenario, timing (e.g. RSI).
Interpretation: > 80 points = real 10B candidate; 70-79 = watchlist material; < 70 = mostly quality stock without tenbagger potential.
$INOD (+0.27%) Innodata - ≈ USD 2.7 bn / ≈ EUR 2.28 bn - 74 points (in the portfolio)
Growth & profitability: 15/20 - strong double-digit growth, but still volatile.
Moat: 12/20 - niche IP and data sets, but no insurmountable moat.
Market size: 17/20 - AI data services highly scalable.
Financials: 12/20 - freshly profitable, but still volatile.
Valuation & Momentum: 18/20 - very hot (RSI > 70).
Exciting stock, but the momentum masks the financial fluctuations - watchlist for me, not core.
$AMPX Amprius Technologies - ≈ USD 1.6 bn / ≈ EUR 1.36 bn - 73 points (watchlist)
Growth & profitability: 15/20 - great potential in the battery and aviation sector, still early stage.
Moat: 16/20 - technology clearly differentiated, provides lead in certain segments.
Market size: 18/20 - batteries remain a global multi-billion topic.
Financials: 8/20 - high CapEx, no positive cash flow yet.
Valuation & Momentum: 16/20 - volatile but attractive valuation.
An exciting innovation stock - if the transition from pilot to series production is successful, this could be exciting.
$NXE (+2.5%) NexGen Energy - ≈ USD 5.0 bn / ≈ EUR 4.26 bn - 76 points (watchlist)
Growth & profitability: 14/20 - no revenues yet, but clear leverage at project start.
Moat: 15/20 - high-quality uranium reserves, strong project know-how.
Market size: 18/20 - uranium is experiencing a global surge in demand.
Financials: 12/20 - good cash, but dilution risks after capital rounds.
Valuation & Momentum: 17/20 - positive sentiment in the uranium sector, clear trend.
NexGen is closely linked to my contribution to the uranium supercycle - for me one of the most exciting levers in the energy sector.
$NICE NICE Ltd - ≈ USD 9.1 bn / ≈ EUR 7.77 bn - 79 points (watchlist)
Growth & Profitability: 18/20 - Cloud & AI drive CX platform, Rule of 40 fulfilled.
Moat: 17/20 - technological depth, high customer loyalty.
Market size: 18/20 - huge CX/AI potential.
Financials: 16/20 - strong cash flow and margins.
Valuation & Momentum: 10/20 - expensive, timing is critical.
Top quality - but I would be patient and wait for better entry windows.
$NU (+1.17%) Nu Holdings - ≈ 73-75 bn USD / ≈ 62-64 bn EUR - 85 points (in portfolio)
Growth & Profitability: 19/20 - high double-digit customer growth, profitability significantly improved.
Moat: 15/20 - strong brand and network effects, but intense competition.
Market size: 20/20 - Latin America with huge address market; US expansion underway.
Financials: 16/20 - stable margins and high capital ratio.
Valuation & momentum: 15/20 - ambitious, but covered by growth.
A quality stock and good benchmark for the model - but at over EUR 60 bn no longer a classic 10B candidate; a tenfold increase from this level is unlikely.
These examples show how differently candidates perform in the 10B model. INOD, AMPX, NXE and NICE are between 73 and 79 points and are therefore exciting watchlist material with clear triggers. NU stands out with 85 points, but no longer fulfills the original "below 10 billion" rule - here I am more interested in confirmation that the model criteria work and that a company can grow strongly in the long term.
The 10B model is not a promise of returns, but a tool for filtering out the most exciting companies at an early stage and then critically examining them. The combination of systematic screening and manual analysis ensures that fantasy and reality are clearly separated - and in my opinion, this is where the best opportunities arise.
Next, if there is interest, I will introduce my Hidden Quality Radar (HQR) - a framework that attempts to identify "under the radar" quality scores through 100-point scoring and link them to visibility factors.
What do you think of the approach - and which small/mid caps under 10 billion would you currently place in the 10B category?
