Walldorf Dip

1Mon

@G_Capital Unfortunately, no—it’s still falling 🙈🙈 The worst-performing stock in a year. Will it ever turn around? Earnings are due tomorrow evening—maybe, for a change, there’ll be some good news. But does anyone really believe that anymore?

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1Mon

@IronEagle Thank you very much for your constructive input. …and yes, it’s more than obvious that you don’t believe in it! …and as for the “worst stock in a year”—I’d be happy to disagree with you! The best investments rarely feel like a good idea when they’re at their lowest point. The key is whether the underlying idea is still sound. For SAP, it is, in my view: strong profitability, market leadership, and a consistent shift toward the cloud and AI…

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1Mon

@G_Capital I hope you’re right. I really don’t know where that optimism is coming from, though. I’m really annoyed with the company because there’s absolutely no positive news. Instead, Klein gives interviews suggesting that programmers won’t be needed anymore—which sounds great in the context of disruption caused by AI.
SAP is the worst-performing DAX stock over the past year. What timeframe do you see for the stock to perform well? I’ve been invested in it long enough, but this time I don’t see anything positive beyond the same old refrain that it’s a solid company. The stock market trades on growth and the future, not the past.

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1Mon

@IronEagle The current weakness is primarily driven by uncertainty in the software sector—not by a failed idea… IBM’s earnings report has added to the uncertainty. $NOW, on the other hand, delivered impressive results yesterday and is helping to shore up the sector. …and shows that IBM has its own problems and does not significantly represent the entire sector. Just be patient—we’re already at the very bottom…

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1Mon

@G_Capital But the uncertainty in the software sector has been going on for so long, and I don’t see how software is supposed to become more important again as AI keeps getting better. When I look at the Datev programs at my law firm, I’d give anything to not have to use them anymore and let AI take over. I’ve never worked with SAP, but I imagine it’s similarly outdated. And ServiceNow’s numbers were good, but once again, nobody on the stock market cares. They rose from -5% to -2% yesterday—that’s not exactly what I’d call a sense of optimism. We’ll probably just have to be patient.

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1Mon

@G_Capital Today, for once, I really can't complain about $SAP 😂😂 Have a great weekend!

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1Mon

@IronEagle THANK YOU! Do I detect a glimmer of optimism there? 😉 There are just some values that eventually need to spread their wings. I think SAP is on exactly that path… Have a great weekend!

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1Mon

@G_Capital Come on, now—you’re exaggerating a bit with this rise :-) Is this really my favorite stock, rising like this ;-)? It would be great, of course, if it could hit 150 euros and stay above that level, rather than getting sold off right away. Let’s hope for the best!

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1Mon

@IronEagle …if even the big players in AI are now saying that software is the next big thing—then things are really taking off. Let’s hope we break through > 150 and then > 179 very soon. …so then 🚀

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View all 2 further answers

1Mon

@IronEagle $CRM...but he really helps out, too!

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2Mon

I'm betting it'll drop below 130 🤷🏼‍♂️

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2Mon

@TradingHase What are the reasons for this assumption? Or is it more of a gut feeling?

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2Mon

@TradingHase Do you have any interesting inside information?

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2Mon

@jkb92 It's really just a hunch—nothing more 🤷🏼‍♂️

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2Mon

@TradingHase Sounds familiar! My better half uses a similar tactic in front of the closet every morning. 🫠

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2Mon

@MozartsGeist 😂😂😂 I hope she doesn't mess up as often as I do 😂😂😂😂

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2Mon

In this field, I've learned that she ALWAYS makes the right decision. 😉

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Chris@Psychedelic_Sunflower

1Mon

Looks like the Rabbit Oracle was right after all. Time to buy more when the next payment comes in. 😊

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2Mon

Wow, what's going on with SAP?! Down nearly 50% in just one year. It looks really bad if you look at the full chart: down nearly 10% since 2006.

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Chris@Psychedelic_Sunflower

2Mon

@Psychedelic_Sunflower I added an SAP position (90%) to my portfolio in September 2017 at a price of €91. Since the beginning of the year, I’ve been buying more shares whenever the price dips. Could you elaborate a bit more on your thoughts regarding SAP’s fundamentals? Thanks in advance!

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2Mon

@MozartsGeist I don't have any strong opinions about SAP, since I don't own any individual shares. I'm just wondering how it's possible that Germany's largest public company hasn't delivered any returns in 20 years (including dividends, you'd probably be slightly in the black, but that's hardly worth mentioning).

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2Mon

@Psychedelic_Sunflower The answer is "saaspocalypse." There are plenty of examples in this sector where your observation holds true—or even more so.

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2Mon

@jkb92 …and that's exactly right—it's an industry-wide problem!

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But the Stock Picked Me@But_the_Stock_Picked_Me

2Mon

@Psychedelic_Sunflower …over the past 20 years, there have also been gains of several hundred percent “+.” …the future is shaped only by the past. What really matters is what’s happening right now. …and at this very moment, I find this sector very interesting—and that’s exactly what I’m betting on. Every company evolves over time, adapting and refining itself to remain successful. The advantage is that $SAP, $CRM, and $ORCL can afford this and finance it without going under. …And sometimes the market is just the market—hard to understand—that feeling comes up when companies race from one record to the next and then see their numbers drop sharply. …I’ve seen it differently, too. BUT: Everyone decides for themselves!

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2Mon

Why did you buy it, and why right now?

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2Mon

@But_the_Stock_Picked_Me The day when people realize that AI isn't (yet) going to take over all software is getting closer and closer :)

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2Mon

@But_the_Stock_Picked_Me Check this out

https://getqu.in/L5gz9Y/ https://getqu.in/L5gz9Y/

AND:

https://getqu.in/IcQDDb/ https://getqu.in/IcQDDb/

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2Mon

@jkb92 That's how it is 👍

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Tom@Tomtom12

2Mon

At 115, I'll take a closer look at them

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2Mon

@Tomtom12 I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that once you check this out, you can cross it off your to-do list. I think it’ll go up to 130€ at most, or 120€ in an extreme case. But the software sector ($IGV) has already found some initial support. Of course, it depends on the overall market, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve already seen the lows.

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2Mon

@Tomtom12 And one more question: Let's take $ACN and $WKL as examples—they've been lumped together when it comes to the AI scare trade. Why did you already buy more of them if you're expecting another 15% dip at $SAP?

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Tom@Tomtom12

2Mon

@jkb92 Because I distinguish between valuation and quality. ACN and WKL have already been hit hard due to AI concerns. I think the market is being too pessimistic there, so I’m taking advantage of the weakness to buy more. SAP is also a quality company, but it has held up much better and, in my view, isn’t yet valued at an attractive level. That’s why I’d rather wait for another pullback of about 10–15%. If that doesn’t happen, that’s fine too—I’d rather buy good companies at reasonable prices than chase every price move.

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2Mon

@Tomtom12 Don't you think that SAP, in particular, has been hit hard recently?

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