1Wk·

Turnaround?

$IREN (+6.27%) Are you still convinced?

15 Comments

PresidentDonkey@DonkeyInvestor

1Wk

To err is human

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AI sagt@GoDividend

1Wk

@DonkeyInvestor Of course, the Irish are only human

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PresidentDonkey@DonkeyInvestor

1Wk

@GoDividend That's what I'm saying 🫂

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AI sagt@GoDividend

1Wk

@DonkeyInvestor 🫂

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Pazzzi@Pazzzi

1Wk

$IREN 's fundamentals haven't changed. The company is in excellent shape, and everything is on schedule. You shouldn't make trading decisions based solely on the stock price.

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Olli@Olli68

1Wk

@Pazzzi That’s right, the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit—they’re still in the gutter! If a massive “double miss” in revenue and profit, along with skyrocketing losses, counts as “top-notch” in your book, you really have a fascinating definition of success.
But sure, let’s just ignore the steadily rising debt and the massive stock dilution, as the company pathetically tries to grow faster than its own printing press for new shares. At the very latest, when those expensive chips are junk again in a few years, need to be replaced, and the next debt cycle starts all over, this house of cards will come crashing down. But hey, everything’s going great—right on schedule!

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Pazzzi@Pazzzi

1Wk

@Olli68 Growth requires investment. Furthermore, everything is financed through 2027, and massive GPU cash flow will start coming in as early as the end of 2026. 4.4MRD in revenue with a 20MRD market cap is certainly nice—and that’s stable for 5 years. You’re also overlooking the following growth: since the 4.4MRD ARR accounts for only 480MW of the 5.8GW, that’s not even 10%.
The double miss due to the BTC miner restructuring should also be clear. It should also be clear that Q4 will look similar, or rather, that these two quarters represent a one-time restructuring scenario. 1 MW is built for approximately $11 million and leased for ~$60–80 million until the leases expire.
The Horizon projects are on schedule, and the first cluster is set to go live at $MSFT in mid-July.

I also view the financing critically; it is the biggest risk. The ATM is also a concern and should be taken into account.

Nevertheless, fears of an interest rate hike—which are justified—prevail; however, the main trigger, the war in Iran, is coming to an end, and the oil price has already returned to pre-war levels. = Inflation may fall again

Right now, you’re not buying the finished hyperscaler at $IREN, but rather a high-risk opportunity to multiply your money. $IREN is currently building the initial revenue foundation, beyond which follow-on financing will become increasingly easier. I currently see this more as a good opportunity to buy more shares than as a reason to sell the stock.

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Pazzzi@Pazzzi

1Wk

@Olli68 On another note, how do you view the hyperscalers' spending in comparison?

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Olli@Olli68

1Wk

@Pazzzi What has particularly bothered me since last fall is that, in addition to their loans and convertible bonds, they’ve also granted themselves large blank checks to issue new shares (fall 2025, with an additional increase in spring 2026). Unfortunately, they only ever disclose this in small footnotes, while they make a big deal out of hiring a marketing team (“acquisition of a marketing firm”). Furthermore, I don’t see any concrete customer contracts, except for those with Microsoft and Nvidia. And I’m sure we’re both aware that these two companies will have their own factories in five years. This is more about securing the transition.
I find the extreme debt and dilution, as well as the communication, very concerning, which has made me rather cautious in my trust.
It’s also unclear when new chip generations will be needed. And that will likely be when Iren’s interest rates are at their highest—in 3–5 years.
You can also kind of tell that they come more from the real estate sector rather than being techies like the Nebius founders. In contrast, the Nebius founders know that if they want to be independent in the long term and compete with the hyperscalers, good software is the be-all and end-all.
In the long term, I only see opportunities for Nebius to be a serious competitor to the hyperscalers.
Coreweave is a typical zombie company that survives only by Nvidia’s grace. I expect Nvidia to fully acquire them within the next 3 years.
I’m currently looking into Hut8. Unlike Iren and Nebius, they see themselves as a partner or purely a provider in the long run. That could also be interesting.

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Olli@Olli68

1Wk

I haven't been convinced since last fall.

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Bubu@Bubu_98

1Wk

So, after they announced today that they’re becoming an NBA sponsor, I’d be cautious.

Just in the last earnings call, the CEO said they didn’t need sales or marketing.

Then on May 18, they acquired a marketing firm, and now they’re sponsoring an NBA team?

That raises some doubts for me. If there really is that much demand, why all of this? 🤔

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DumpMoney@DumpMoney

1Wk

@Bubu_98 Build a brand that is viewed positively by the public. Data centers consume—or, rather, draw—water from nature. That doesn’t go over well with the public… Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t IREN also operate power plants? They need water, too.

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Bubu@Bubu_98

1Wk

@DumpMoney I haven't thought about it that way yet

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BoldTake@BoldTake

1Wk

Turnaround? 240% yoy😄

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Ingo M.@savvy_investor_2852

1Wk

When TeamViewer first joined Man City, that would have been a good time to leave TeamViewer

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