Hello everyone,
the dear @Testo-Investor has asked me to write an article about my "Exit Strategy 2025". Out of fear of his biceps, I will of course fulfill his every wish!
In order to be able to define such an exit strategy, you first have to make assumptions about the price.
So here are my brief crystal ball scenarios for the Bitcoin price in 2024-25:
- Dead Bear (you could also name the scenario after Frank Thelen):
-> Bitcoin price < 100k$
- Bear
-> Bitcoin price between 100k$ and 120k$
- Base
-> Bitcoin price between 120k$ and 180k$
- Bull
-> Bitcoin price between 180k$ and 250k$
- Omega Bull
-> Bitcoin price between 250k$ and 500k$
My plan:
I would like to sell a maximum of 30% of my Bitcoin position. Should the "Omega Bull" scenario materialize, I could imagine selling up to 20% depending on the situation. The rest of my position will definitely be hodled.
So when exactly do I plan to sell Bitcoin?
At 100k$, 150k$ and 175k$ I will sell 10% of my Bitcoin holdings.
I would then only sell another 10% from 250k$ and another 10% depending on the market situation if we go completely overboard. If the granny from the village suddenly tells me something about Bitcoin and I realize that the market is completely overhyped, I would sell another 10%.
It follows from this:
In the Frank Thelen dead bear scenario, I would sell nothing and continue to hodl everything. In the dead bear scenario I would sell 10% of my position and in the base scenario up to 30%. If we were to reach the Bull / Omega-Bull level, I would sell another 10-20% (although I consider this scenario to be very unlikely).
What do I do with the fiat money then?
As it stands now, I'm leaning towards boringly putting it all into a World ETF. I don't want to take any major risks with the money, which is why I will tend to avoid individual shares. One exception will be my employer's shares - as I have full insight into the business, I can well imagine building up a larger position here.
If Bitcoin goes into a bear market again and we see major setbacks, I would shift more out of the ETF and back into Bitcoin.
Why don't I just sell everything so that I can buy more Bitcoin later at a lower price?
- Tax-free Bitcoin
- What if there is a change in the law regarding tax exemption after 1 year (which I assume) and only the already tax-free Bitcoin is exempt from the change?
- Market timing does not work
- Catching the top of a potential bull run and then getting back in during a deep bear market sounds tempting - but I would never presume to do that.
- What if you sell everything at $150k and then we shoot up to $500k? A 70% drop would only take us back to the original $150k. I don't know about you guys, but I could be thrown in a scenario like that.
- Will the Bitcoin cycles continue?
- There is a distinct possibility that now that Wall Street is on board, the cycles will not repeat themselves in the same way as before. Personally, I don't see any more 70-80% declines. Unless, of course, we completely exaggerate and the share price really does go down to half a million. However, I think it is more likely that the cycles will be broken in future and that the halvings will no longer have such a big effect on the share price. I expect slower, but more sustainable increases.
What do you think of my strategy and the price targets?
I'm looking forward to getting this post out again at the end of next year and seeing how well or badly I predicted the price and, above all, whether I stuck to my own strategy in the end😅
Have a nice evening!
