ASML is considered indispensable and a big AI winner. However, a look at the valuation and business figures shows that supposed perfection has its price.
World-class company, but ...
ASML is one of those companies where superlatives don't seem exaggerated, but rather soberly describe what is going on. Anyone who wants to understand how the modern world works technologically will sooner or later end up at this Dutch company.
Without ASML, many of the chips that drive our everyday lives, the global economy and technological progress would not exist. This is what makes the company exceptional. And that is precisely why it seems worth taking a closer look right now.
I have commented positively on ASML countless times in the past. Nothing has fundamentally changed in this respect. The quality of the company is undisputed, the business model impressive, the technological position unique. But the Aktienkurs has entered a region that at least forces us to reflect.
Since the last analysis (ASML stĂŒrzt nach Quartalszahlen ab), the share price has risen from 653 euros to 1,162 euros. This is not an increase based on business figures, but a revaluation of the share.
The stock market has completely changed its opinion of ASML. Back then, the company was viewed critically; today, hardly any price seems too high.
ASML and the AI euphoria
ASML is a major global supplier of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry. These machines are at the heart of chip production. They make it possible to project tiny structures onto silicon wafers with a precision that is beyond anything that could have been imagined just a few years ago. Without these systems, modern microchips simply cannot be manufactured.
ASML supplies the central infrastructure for the entire industry and is also a monopolist.
The business model rests on two stable pillars. On the one hand, ASML sells its highly complex lithography systems, which individually cost up to USD 400 million.
Secondly, the company continuously earns money with services related to the machines already installed. Maintenance, upgrades and technical support ensure predictable, recurring revenues. This service business has been gaining in importance for years and makes ASML less cyclical than a pure machine manufacturer would be.
In terms of technology, ASML distinguishes between DUV and EUV lithography systems. While DUV systems continue to be widely used and make up a solid part of the business, the real moat is in the EUV area.
Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography is the key technology for the most modern chips. It is all about structures in the nanometre range, computing power, energy efficiency and miniaturization. Whether artificial intelligence, data centers, high-performance computers, autonomous driving or smartphones - EUV-based chips can be found everywhere.
When quality becomes an excuse
And here comes the crucial point: ASML is the only supplier of such EUV systems worldwide.
However, all this was already known when the share was still at 653 euros. The technological leadership is not new, the service business has not suddenly emerged, the monopoly is not a fresh surprise.
Realistically speaking, little has happened since the analysis at that time. Apart from the fact that the share price has almost doubled. The company has presented quarterly figures once, but they were nothing spectacular.
What has changed is the sentiment. The stock market has declared ASML the ultimate AI winner.
Known strengths, new valuation
However, this is only partially reflected in the business figures. Third-quarter earnings of EUR 5.49 per share exceeded expectations of EUR 5.45. However, with sales of EUR 7.52 billion, the company fell slightly short of analysts' estimates of EUR 7.55 billion.
In itself, this would hardly be worth mentioning. Over the year as a whole, however, sales only increased marginally and earnings only by 4%.
Dynamic growth looks different. In the past, I have repeatedly pointed out that individual quarters at ASML are not particularly meaningful when it comes to weak quarters - and this has not changed.
However, this is not the first operationally weak quarter, nor is it the first quarter with a poor order intake.
Slowly but surely, a trend is solidifying at ASML. In the first quarter, incoming orders amounted to only EUR 3.94 billion, in the second to EUR 5.54 billion and in the third to EUR 5.40 billion.
This is still cushioned by the enormous order backlog of around EUR 33 billion. However, if incoming orders are significantly lower than sales for several quarters in a row, this is not a good sign.
Radical change in sentiment
However, the bulls are not empty-handed either. For the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML is forecasting a jump in sales to EUR 9.2 - 9.8 billion and a gross margin of 51 - 53%.
This would correspond to a significant increase in growth momentum and could be a harbinger for 2026.
According to consensus estimates, earnings should be EUR 19.25 per share in 2025 and increase by 29% to EUR 24.78 per share in 2026.
The P/E ratio for 2025 is therefore 60 and would fall to 46.8 in 2026. Despite all the love for ASML and all the aforementioned qualities that the company brings to the table. But that is not exactly low - not even for a monopolist in this sector.
In the last five years, the P/E ratio has averaged 40.
ASML is not twice as good a company today as it was at the time of the last analysis, but the share price is almost twice as high. This does not mean that you should get out of this company completely - in my opinion, you should never do that with top companies - but you should think about taking profits
ASML share: Chart from 23.01.2026, price: EUR 1,162 - abbreviation: ASML | Source: TWS
The share price performance since the last analysis shows how fickle the stock market is. At that time the share price was still at EUR 653, today at EUR 1,162. Meanwhile, the quality of the company has not changed; it was just as high then as it is now.
That's why the tenor should not be: sell and tick off. Top companies are not given away lightly. But it is legitimate and, in my view, sensible to think about taking profits.
Withdrawing capital from a position that has performed extremely well is not a vote of no confidence in the company. It is risk management.
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