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RW
@SeidoPacero
2Mon·

Regrouping 2

5
11 Comments
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Chris@Multibagger
2Mon
What do you expect from $HIMS. You have massively declining margins due to sharply rising marketing expenses and price cuts. There is also the threat of further regulatory intervention.
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RW@SeidoPacero
2Mon
@Multibagger I think they are part of the medical future. Are now profitable with the subscription model. Which share would you have chosen?
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McZed@McZed
2Mon
@Multibagger I don't take such a critical view of marketing now, as Hims is continuing to expand. Hims is currently aggressively buying customers into the subscription models. This is squeezing margins now, but could pay off in the future, especially with this model. It would be problematic if the marketing costs for new customers are permanently high or prices are so low that revenue per customer, and therefore customer lifetime value, falls significantly. Incidentally, the repurchase rates and average subscription duration at Hims currently remain stable at a high level.

On price reductions: Definitely something to keep an eye on, but prices are not falling across the entire product range, only selectively. In addition, HIMS earns money not only from the medicine itself, but also from the subscription model, telemedicine, various personalized and cross-selling offers direct to consumer.

So the business model is very different from traditional big pharma, which is why I definitely see regulation as a risk, but not as super acute for the whole business model
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Chris@Multibagger
2Mon
@SeidoPacero in this segment, or in general?
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RW@SeidoPacero
2Mon
@Multibagger In general, you often have interesting takes that not everyone has on their radar.
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Chris@Multibagger
2Mon
@SeidoPacero yes, but I'm not necessarily known as a long-term investor here either. I find $LMND interesting, or $TEM, I have also made good money with $HIMS in the past. But since the crash from the high, they haven't been able to get back on track. That doesn't mean that they are a bad stock, but they no longer fulfill my return expectations in any way. That's why I sold them last week at around plus/minus 0.
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Habicht128@Habicht128
2Mon
@Multibagger where do you see that hims has increasing marketing expenditure? Relative to sales, marketing expenditure has been falling for several quarters. Of course they are rising in absolute terms, but that's not important.
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Habicht128@Habicht128
2Mon
@Multibagger and margins are currently falling mainly due to increased personnel expenses, which I see as positive in the long term
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Chris@Multibagger
2Mon
@Habicht128 I would rather put it in relation to how much marketing expenditure is required per newly acquired subscriber. After all, that's what the future is all about. In my opinion, sales will fall this year due to the termination of the cooperation with $NOVO B and the ban on offering these products, even in a modified form. And I haven't even factored in the risk of lawsuits. But again, I'm not saying it's a bad company over the next 2-3 years. But I don't believe that they will achieve my return expectation of a price increase of around 5% p.m. holding period in the portfolio this year. That is simply the criterion I have defined. Please never forget that in my assessments.
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Jan@Barrd
2Mon
Why did you throw out $PANW?
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RW@SeidoPacero
2Mon
@Barrd Although they should be performing, they are not. The share is stagnating or falling again and again.
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