What do you think

Stephan Schnee · 2025-08-05T05:29:35.044447Z

What do you think of my little Portpolio? Joined in 2022 and now 41 years old.

Ayecaramba@Ayecaramba256

1Wk

Personally, too few growth values for my age

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Ayecaramba256 I can now only work part-time for 20 hours thanks to the dividends. That was always my goal. Now it's to reduce to 15 hours a week from 2026. That's why I need these dividends.

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Wk

@MrCumEx With the dividends from 175k you can go down to 20h/week 25 years before retirement?

That would be too hot for me

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Katth@Katth

1Wk

@Alpalaka It wouldn't work for me either, but I guess he has a pretty minimalistic life. Nothing wrong with that and if it works for him it works.

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GHF@GHF

1Wk

@MrCumEx However, reducing your hours will also reduce your pension entitlement. I think that would be a bit risky given the amount you're investing.

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Jonny@Jonny45810

1Wk

@GHF Who knows what the statutory pension will be....

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Oleg@ScorpionfromBW

1Wk

@GHF Do you really believe that you'll still get your pension 🤣 I don't believe it anymore and I'm 46

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Alpalaka To forecast the development of net dividends until 2035, we analyze the given data: 2022: € 2,492.92, 2023: 4.443,26 €, 2024: 7.457,05 €, 2025: 10.900 €. The annual growth rates are:2022-2023: (4.443,26 ÷ 2.492,92 - 1) ≈ 78,26 %
2023-2024: (7.457,05 ÷ 4.443,26 - 1) ≈ 67,82 %
2024-2025: (10.900 ÷ 7.457,05 - 1) ≈ 46,18 %

The average growth rate is approx. 64.09 %, but shows a downward trend. For a conservative estimate, we assume that the growth rate will continue to fall and stabilize at 10% per year (realistic for dividend growth with reinvested earnings and market fluctuations) With an annual growth rate of 10% (compound interest: D2035=D2025×(1+0.1)10D_{2035} = D_{2025} \times (1 + 0.1)^{10}D_{2035} = D_{2025} \times (1 + 0.1)^{10}
):10.900 € × 2,5937 ≈ 28.271 €.

Forecast for 2035: Net dividends of approx. €28,271, assuming stable growth in investments (e.g. shares/ETFs) without major market slumps or changes in dividend policy. Tax changes (e.g. capital gains tax) could affect the net amount. A financial advisor is recommended for an accurate forecast.

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Wk

@MrCumEx
"[...] provided that the investments (e.g. equities/ETFs) grow stably, without major market slumps or changes in dividend policy. [...]"

How do you hedge your portfolio if the above occurs? Do you sell shares? Do you still have a decent nest egg up your sleeve?

As you are dependent on the distribution, it would be interesting to know how you proceed and hedge yourself :)

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Alpalaka still have cash reserves of 34,000 euros. I also have some limit orders open, which will hopefully be accessed soon....

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Wk

@MrCumEx In other words, what will you do if Altria cancels the dividend?

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Michel V.@Noord26

1Wk

35% in tabacco is heavy. Be aware of sudden changes.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Noord26 I love tobacco because no customers are as loyal as tobacco customers. They would rather give up food and drink than nicotine. I don't think you know how addictive tobacco or nicotine is brother.....

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Michel V.@Noord26

1Wk

@MrCumEx I understand being addictive. The only problem is that country's policy with tabacco can change over 1 night. That's a lot of risk for 1/3 of you're entire portfolio.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Noord26 No problem, because BAT is active worldwide and Trump won't do anything about nicotine in the USA either.

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Michel V.@Noord26

1Wk

@MrCumEx Trump leads only 1 country, not the world.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Noord26 Altria is only active in one country lol

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Demas@Demas

1Wk

@Noord26 totally agree. Cigarettes can already no longer be bought in Dutch supermarkets, but I think this will happen in other countries as well.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Demas English or German ?

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Demas@Demas

1Wk

@MrCumEx Dutch :) I said 'I completely agree. Cigarettes are no longer available in Dutch supermarkets, but I think this will happen in other countries as well.'

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

6D

@Demas in Germany everywhere. And then there are vending machines everywhere.

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Xalarun@Xalarun

1Wk

The disproportionate Tesla position ruined it for me, otherwise very sexy.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Xalarun lol. The fragment came free of charge from TR for the registration :D

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Rendite Rudin@RenditeRudin

1Wk

Very nice!

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Rendite Rudin@RenditeRudin

1Wk

@RenditeRudin $HSBA and $CCEP would be a good match! (temporary Qst)

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@RenditeRudin Thanks Bro

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Carles@Carles

1Wk

It is a clear dividend portfolio, that has had also correct growth over the last years. So nice if it fits your idea good.

In my opinion your position in $ARCC is risky at this point. It does pay a nice dividend, it does have been going up even with this high dividend, and it does have an amazing long track record in any environment... But the situation forward is uncertain:
· Interest rates going down should affect price, income and dividend.
· I love the BDC model, but it is clearly a better option when interests are growing or stable.
· There have been a long period of stable interests, then growth and now stability again, but everything makes me think that on the medium term that might change, so I'd be carefull of mantaining big positions in BDC stocks.
· They'll keep paying 9-11%, but if the price goes down and you already had the position, you might face price losses and lower dividends for your money.

On the other hand, this might be compensated by REITS like $O , as they enjoy negative correlation with what I just said, and if interests go down they should apreciate and improve dividend.

I might downsize your position in $ARCC waiting for a correction (I sold mine a few days ago, just like i did with $OBDC. Just holding $HTGC right now.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Carles Thanks, but I think ARES Capital is now so big that they can maintain the dividend. It's not a dwarf. I'm much more afraid of a cut at Goldman Sachs BDC. ARES can manage that. I believe in ARES.

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Carles@Carles

1Wk

@MrCumEx They could, and it is well covered... But they're already paying out 90% of the profit.

Their TTM net income is already down from last year and forecast is that it will keep going down, specially if there're rate cuts.

If they mantain dividend while decreasing net income, it would mean a higher yield (not a problem as at this point is 8,6% and it has been many times arround 10%), but it will also mean higher payout ratio, and with that higher need of debt to finance its operations...

In my opinion it has all the ingredients to underperform via price depreciation, but I respect your position, at the end $ARCC is an amazing BDC really well managed that has been constantly returning money to its investors for a very long time. I'll be back when the stock falls and dividend yield is arround 10%.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Carles Yes, unfortunately nothing is certain, but I trust the management at ARES Capital. I even hope that the dividend is sacrosanct to them ;-)

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Yieldrology@Yield-Ahead

1Wk

Are you not interested in a (dividend-oriented) ETF to capture at least part of the market return?

$VWRL
$VHYL
$FGEQ

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Yield-Ahead No, it's too expensive for me and I'd rather build my own ;-)

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Chandra@Chandra

5D

@MrCumEx However, your portfolio has no return at all apart from dividends, as you have realized about as many losses as you have price gains. Are you happy with that?

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

5D

@Chandra Yes, of course. The first two years I was still well in the red. Now well in the plus. I don't think Buffett's first three years were much better, were they?

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

5D

@Chandra I still have 14,000 euros in the loss pot. So I won't be paying any tax for the next 10 years, will I?

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Chandra@Chandra

5D

@MrCumEx If the losses are from share sales, you will not pay tax on share gains for a while. However, you cannot offset the share losses against your dividends, as dividends are offset against the general loss offset pot and not against the share loss offset pot. That's the good thing about ETFs, because you can offset their losses against dividends.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

5D

@Chandra Yes, that's where they come from. I will certainly sell shares at a profit at some point. It's also nice if you don't have to pay taxes, isn't it?

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Rbbbbb@Rbbbbb

4D

Evening :I would also need a new lung wing for the left side :I am politically involved in the csu/cdu 😅✌️

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

4D

@Rbbbbb haha :D

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Frank@FrankDefender

1D

I love it for the most😊

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1D

@FrankDefender thank you very much.

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Evcharista 🇨.@Evcharista

1D

It would be too tobacco and USA-heavy for me. But that doesn't matter, it has to be right for you.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

21H

@Evcharista Yes, I think tobacco and USA shares are the best way to make money ;-)

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Evcharista 🇨.@Evcharista

21H

@MrCumEx I assumed that......

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D.S.@Cato_Bamboo

1Wk

A bit much tobacco, but I like Tesla. Idea is certainly good, personally I would diversify into a few more dividend stocks. (Ares is heavily overweighted, I would split up a bit here)

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

1Wk

@Cato_Bamboo Thanks, but I got 0.02 percent or so from Tesla as a gift from TR :D

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Aktien-Investor@Aktien-Investor

1Wk

High dividend portfolio! Your focus cannot be overlooked :)

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Chris@Chris-1989

1Wk

Clear dividend portfolio! But the just over 900 euros per month are used for current living expenses and are not reinvested? Should the portfolio continue to grow, is it still being saved or only managed?

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Matthias@ZaphodB

1Wk

If that suits you...ok....Would be a little too "undiversified" for me. But I'm also a bit more risk-averse, signed an early retirement contract at 56 and simply want to stop at 65 instead of 67 - de facto it ends at the end of 62 because the passive phase of early retirement begins. That means a 7% deduction from the statutory pension at 65. I started investing in shares four years ago, paid a bit of a learning curve - like many others - and am earning around 1 thousand euros a month gross with the dividend-paying portion of my shares (that's around 85 thousand euros), the rest is dividend-free as a target. That works. I still have four years to build up a little. There is also more than enough residential property - also a form of investment. Dividends - nice to have, but you certainly can't rely on them completely. I would bear that in mind if I were to "halve" a job. Things like realty income are quite stable - with the rest there is probably an uncertainty factor involved. For me too, I'm sure.

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Matthias@ZaphodB

1Wk

In this context, I find the current political discussion in the summer theater to raise the capital gains tax significantly interesting - so that private pension provision is really no longer worthwhile and, best of all, you become a top-up pensioner at retirement age. What society and politics teaches us is to spend your money in good time - ONLY THEN will the rest of society finance your future livelihood - otherwise it's the other way around. I just don't have the faith. Plan B...: Get yourself elected for two terms. Then you won't need any more shares because you'll be well provided for.

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Sterling A.@Income_Agent

1Wk

Strong. If you are pursuing an income strategy, I would also include infrastructure such as GG00BV54HY67 or $HICL:) or perhaps precious metal CC Etps such as $GLDI $SLVY.

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stocker_1702@stocker_1702

1Wk

I would add a little Bitcoin or alternatively gold as a hedge.
At least around 10k.
$BTC

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devnerd_daddy@devnerd_daddy

1Wk

Hm, with the focus on real estate, I would almost rather buy a real property, renovate it and rent it out. Then you can at least deduct the costs instead of having the tax problems with REITs.

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Craig@BDCBOY

4D

Why Ares and Main but no HTGC, FIDUS and BXSL?

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Kenneth@KennethInvesting

4D

I do understand why you bought what you bought. You're eager to receive the dividends. But personally I'd look more into difersifying into dividend ETFs. Your portfolio has a lot of risk because it soley depends on dividends and not on value growth. With a dividend ETF you would get both, probably better returns, and also a 4-5% dividend yield.

If one of your companies goes bankrupt or drops 50% like UNH did recently you will stress i think. Your biggest holding is 22% or your portfolio. A Blackswan event, like COVID, or a recession makes it drop 50% and you're down 17-18k, which is a lot. An ETF would also solve this and you would have to put less effort in.

You're only 41, you have many years ahead to invest. And only receiving dividends during these years will most likely drag your returns down.

You do have a decent amount invested. I'm not even close to your portfolio. As long as you keep investing you will see the rewards!
I hope my comment helps you!

Kind regards,
Kenneth

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Aktienfreund@Aktienfreund

2D

I would never invest like that. But if it fits, it's okay.

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Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

2D

In the meantime, the price has risen again :-)

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Mark@le_Wurst

2D

I would close the smallest positions. Create a core (world ETF) and mix in BTC. The stock selection is not mine, but to each his own. But core ETF + BTC should be part of every portfolio.
LG

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Marco@Marco_91

1D

Well, I would never include stocks like Altria and BAT in my portfolio as individual stocks. I would rather work with ETFs, but that's up to you....

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What do you think?