9H·

Next sale: OKTA

Dear community, there has been another rattle in the depot. This time $OKTA (+3.02%) unfortunately. Still up, but with a disappointing return. The share was once up more than 50% in the portfolio.


Reasons for the sale are easy to find. Okta does not look incredibly cheap for its growth and competition is increasing. Until now, I saw Identity Access Management (IAM) as a highly profitable niche. Unfortunately, the niche is no longer a niche when Microsoft becomes active. Although they have had a competing product for decades, they haven't really bothered with it. In the meantime, however, MSFT has upgraded and can use its platform strength with Azure to woo existing customers much better.


Although I believe that the market will be big enough for both players in the long term and Okta also has plenty of unique selling points, I don't think it's currently justified to maintain a pure play for such a special topic.


At the moment, the momentum is fully behind Okta, but as a precaution, I still prefer to sell now. The figures are due next Thursday and I don't want to take the risk of having to sell the position at a loss after all. The same applies to holding stocks over the weekend as long as Trump is president (he usually works more at the weekend than on weekdays)


The next to-dos are:

  • $ILM1 (-1.49%) and $AFX (-0.61%) are very likely to leave us by the end of the year
  • $PYPL (-0.13%) and $UNH (+0.33%) will continue to be monitored very closely, I am increasingly losing patience with PayPal in particular
  • I will restructure my gaming portfolio in depth, with fewer stocks and less overall weighting. But I'll take my time with the details.
22.05
Okta logo
Sold x20 at €78.28
€1,565.60
7.08%
9
3 Comments

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Between 2008 and 2016 they used to mock $AMD by calling it "Advanced Money Destroyer", today Paypal is being mocked by being called "PainPal".
If you look at AMD now you can clearly see that people who bought between that decade made a huge deal.
"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes."
I have not a position in PayPal yet, however I am monitoring the company 'cause I do not want to miss this opportunity.
Fundementally speaking PayPal business is growing, the only thing deteriorating are margins because BrainTree is growing fatser than the classic Paypal button.
However both BrainTree and Venmo are 2 gems in the Pyapal portfolio.
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@TheMaverick I don’t know how good that example works. AMD had a lost decade because they really stood in the shadows of Intel at that time. Nobody really wanted to buy AMD until TSMC evolved their technology a lot faster than Intel Foundries and AMD gained access to this advanced manufacturing. All they really did was getting lucky.

I don’t know if a miracle like this can happen for PayPal.

Their business isn’t doing bad but nothing seems to cause any optimism in the market. And it’s not only the future prospects that are unclear. I personally put high hopes in Alex Chriss to have a vision for PayPal. But he achieved nothing and was fired eventually. And the new guy? Enrique Lores? How is the HP guy going to bring back PayPal to growth and glory? He comes neither from the business that PayPal used to be nor from one PayPal want to be.
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@Soprano PayPal has done a lot of bad choices, I remember when they wanted to acquire $PINS in 2021 for no reason at all.
The new choice of CEO is the main reason why I didn't buy the stock yet.
I wanted a CEO with fintech experience, this one instead is famous just for cost cutting.
When AMD rose was not because they were "lucky", but because of the new CEO's Lisa SU decisions and plan of action.
Paypal has a lot of potential but the management is always choosing a wrong CEO for the job and the company has no direction.
Paypal will lateralize until a CEO with a good background and a good plan of action/vision will take control of the company.
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