1Yr

A commodity company shortly after re-inversion of the yield curve? Uiuiui! 😳

That will take a lot out of you! Good perseverance!

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

1Yr

@Epi I would describe "re-inversion" as an inversion of the inverted yield curve. This would cause short-term interest rates to fall below long-term rates. What would be bad about that? Or am I misunderstanding something?

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Dividendenopi The re-inversion or normalization of the yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators of all, 100% meeting rate over the last 100 years. It usually takes a while, but 6 months later the time has usually come.

I would not necessarily buy cyclically sensitive commodity companies right now.

But what do I know with my broken crystal ball? 🤷

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MC@Tokugawa

1Yr

@Epi under further ? No one knows how strong it will be or not. You can also use this as an argument against Tesla or Apple. In the event of a recession, the market will go broadly downwards...but what does that matter if the investment horizon is longer than the next short-term pig cycle...

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Tokugawa What's the itch? I keep cash on hand to collect favorably while others accumulate losses.

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MC@Tokugawa

1Yr

@Epi time in the market Beats timing the market. Always in installments...and especially with Rio you enjoy the coupon while waiting.

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Tokugawa Someone who buys a single share is not "in the market". The saying applies to broad market ETFs.
And even then: Time in the market beats stupid timing the market. 😉

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

1Yr

@Epi The statistics show that, with one exception, an inverted yield curve has always led to a recession. If the curve now "normalizes back" - assuming that the long-term interest rate is higher than the short-term one - where do you see the 100% indicator for a recession? Well, the inversion should slowly start to take hold and the statistical recession should really kick in, which always takes a while. But if this happens by chance, the moment of re-inversion is not causal.

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Dividendenopi As I understand it, the normalization of the yield curve is actually about its rise. This seems problematic to me because it indicates that loans are being granted on a longer-term basis, i.e. banks' and investors' capital is no longer sitting so loosely. This indicates a recession.

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