The longest shutdown in years and the markets remain nervous!
- The US government shutdown has now lasted for over 40 days.
- Polymarket does not see an end until November 18 at the earliest, which would be 48 days of shutdown.
- Will the shutdown come to an end soon?
Historical parallels: When politics meets markets, because shutdowns create uncertainty:
- Delayed economic data
- Stagnating government work
- Loss of confidence in the political ability to act
- Tech and small caps react particularly sensitively
- But remember: political stock markets have short legs!
Macro outlook
- As long as the shutdown continues, important data such as CPI/jobs will remain delayed.
- The FED is flying blind while corporate profits are running.
- Risk: short-term weakness, medium-term recovery after agreement.
Conclusion:
- Setbacks are part of bull markets and are healthy!
- We have already used the DIP and got a good reversal on Friday! It will be interesting to see when the shutdown ends, because the end will probably generate an up-move.
- For more info and how to read the market follow https://x.com/greyxcapital?s=21 and join our Discord https://grey-capital.com/dashboard/
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