PayPal Stock Forum

Podcast episode 63 "Buy High. Sell Low."

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00:00:00 US election

00:04:00 Palantir $PLTR (+5.8%)

00:24:00 AppLovin

00:35:00 Meta $META (+0.4%)

00:45:00 Alphabet $GOOGL (-0.6%)
$GOOG (-0.66%)

00:55:30 PayPal $PYPL (+3%)

01:12:45 Vistra $VST (+5.85%)

01:24:00 Robo-Advisors vs. ETFs

Spotify $SPOT (+0.87%)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1EEZA9phh1ndeZbmMofoEe?si=Z4bINmNZTBiEvBuEUHI1Lg

YouTube

https://youtu.be/C5bvhDp8K5U

Apple Podcast $AAPL (+0.65%)

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-63-palantir-paypal-meta-alphabet-vistra-applovin/id1695869891?i=1000676295613

The city of Detroit🇺🇲 has announced that it will accept cryptocurrencies $BTC (+0.83%) and other cryptocurrencies as a means of payment for taxes and other city fees.

This will make Detroit the largest US city to offer this payment option, which will be processed via a platform managed by $PYPL (+3%) managed by

Source: https://detroitmi.gov/news/detroit-become-largest-city-us-accept-cryptocurrency-payments-taxes-other-fees

$PYPL (+3%)
$WBD (-1.27%)

Very exciting assessment of the shares.

https://www.high-tech-investing.de/post/echtgeld-tv-waldhauser-paypal-vimeo-warnerbros

Both positions are going into my "speculative portfolio". They will remain there for 2-4 years and we will see whether the investment case works out

New purchase PayPal

Yesterday I shared my thoughts on PayPal $PYPL (+3%) and today, at the stock market launch in the USA, I got straight down to business and opened a first position.

I don't see PayPal as a growth monster, but rather as a value play:

• Management change shows first fruits (catalyst for revaluation)
• Free cash flow yield historically high
• massive share buybacks (probably 7-8% of own shares will be bought back this year alone)
• Solid and stable user base that can be further monetized

The moment after the short-term sell-off following the good quarterly figures seems favorable to me. We will see whether it goes down a bit further. There may still be an opportunity to buy more.

30.10.2024

Xiaomi SU7 Ultra breaks record on the North Loop + Visa posts double-digit sales and profit growth + Google's advertising business grows significantly again + Adidas recovers strongly - "good prospects" + McDonald's has to nibble at sluggish consumption worldwide + PayPal Holdings Inc. outperforms in the third quarter

On October 28, 2024, the prototype $1810 (-1.51%)Xiaomi SU7 Ultra prototype set a new record for four-door electric cars with a lap time of 6 minutes 46.874 seconds on the Nordschleife of the Nürburgring. Xiaomi EV thus broke the track record that had stood for seven years and underlines its commitment to further increasing the performance of electric vehicles.

https://www.goingelectric.de/2024/10/29/news/xiaomi-su7-ultra-bricht-rekord-auf-der-nordschleife/

The credit card group Visa $V (+1.22%) benefited greatly from the desire to consume and travel in the past financial year. Thanks to a strong final quarter, growth in the twelve months to the end of September was in double figures. Turnover climbed by ten percent to almost 36 billion dollars (33.2 billion euros), the Dow Jones-listed company announced in San Francisco on Tuesday. Visa recorded a 14 percent increase in profits to 19.7 billion dollars. The result was therefore slightly better than experts had expected. In the current financial year 2024/25, Visa is once again aiming for strong growth in sales and profits. Despite the positive outlook, the company is planning to cut jobs, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The share price initially rose slightly in after-hours trading. After years of soaring, the stock has run out of steam this year. Since the end of 2023, the share price has only risen by eight percent, lagging somewhat behind the Dow Jones. In the ten years before that, however, the share price rose by almost 400%, significantly more than most other blue chips. With a market capitalization of just over 570 billion dollars, Visa is the 13th most valuable US company, only just behind the much larger US bank JPMorgan .

Google's $GOOGL (-0.6%) advertising business continues to grow rapidly despite the new AI competition. Advertising revenue rose by a good ten percent year-on-year to 65.85 billion dollars in the past quarter. The quarterly profit of parent company Alphabet jumped by a third to 26.3 billion dollars (24.3 billion euros), as the company announced on Tuesday after the close of the US stock exchange. Google's advertising revenues continue to form the basis of Alphabet's business. The video subsidiary YouTube contributed 8.9 billion dollars - a good twelve percent more than in the same quarter last year. This was in line with analysts' expectations. The share price rose by around four percent in after-hours trading. Overall, Alphabet's turnover grew by 15 percent to 88.27 billion dollars. The development of Google's advertising business is being watched very closely. A key question is whether attempts by competitors to use artificial intelligence to display direct answers instead of links will leave a mark on Google's search engine. In the so-called "other bets" - future projects such as self-driving cars or delivery drones - the quarterly turnover of all companies rose from 297 to 388 million dollars within a year. The division's operating loss was around 1.12 billion dollars, compared to just under 1.2 billion dollars a year ago.

Adidas $ADS (-1.81%) rose by 3.8 percent after its final figures. The RBC analysts were positive about the profit, which significantly exceeded market expectations thanks to lower financing costs and slightly higher financial income. And for 2025, the order book looks "strong, at least for the first quarter, but also into the second quarter", according to the group. Adidas has also confirmed its medium-term margin target of 10 percent for 2026.

The fast food group McDonald's $MCD (+2.19%) continues to struggle with tight customer budgets worldwide. On a comparable basis, revenue in the third quarter slipped by 1.5 percent compared to the same period last year, as the US company announced in Chicago on Tuesday. The decline was thus twice as high as analysts had feared on average. McDonald's uses this key figure to compare the revenues of those restaurants that have been open for at least the past 13 months, as well as all temporarily closed restaurants. In addition to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East and calls for boycotts in the region, business in China, France and the UK was also worse. McDonald's only recorded a minimal increase in its home market. At Group level, sales rose by three percent to just under 6.9 billion US dollars (around 6.35 billion euros). However, the operating result fell by one percent to just under 3.2 billion dollars. On the bottom line, the BurgerKing competitor earned 2.26 billion dollars after 2.32 billion in the previous year.

PayPal Holdings Inc. $PYPL (+3%) outperformed analysts' estimates of USD 1.07 in the third quarter with earnings per share of USD 1.20. Revenue of USD 7.85 billion below expectations of USD 7.88 billion. Paypal shares fall 5.6% in early US trading yesterday as the company's revenue forecast for the final quarter disappoints, despite a better-than-expected third-quarter profit.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Inditex EUR 0.50

Texas Instruments 1.36 USD

Kinder Morgan Registered (P) USD 0.29

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

11:30 Caterpilla | GE Healthcare quarterly figures

11:45 Eli Lilly quarterly figures

12:00 Kraft Heinz quarterly figures

12:45 Abbvie quarterly figures

21:00 Microsoft | Booking Holdings | Amgen quarterly figures

21:05 Meta Platforms | Ebay | Starbucks quarterly figures

21:15 Allstate quarterly figures

Untimed: Biogen quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

06:45 UBS | Aker ASA Quarterly figures

07:00 BASF | Fuchs | Kion | Capgemini Quarterly figures

07:30 Volkswagen | Schneider Electric | Raiffeisen Bank International quarterly figures

08:00 GSK plc | Standard Chartered Quarterly Figures | Glencore Production Report 3Q

08:30 BASF Analyst Conference

09:00 Aston Martin quarterly figures | VW analyst and press conference | UBS analyst conference

10:00 BASF | Fuchs PK

10:45 UBS PK

12:00 Fuchs Analyst Conference

15:00 Kion Analyst Conference

17:45 Airbus quarterly figures | Axa 9 months sales

18:30 Airbus PK

19:30 Airbus Analyst Conference

No time specified: Outokumpu | Telenor quarterly figures

Economic data

• 07:30 FR: GDP (1st release) 3Q FORECAST: +0.3% yoy Q2: +0.2% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Employment September
• 08:45 FR: Private consumption September FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+0.2% yoy Previous: +0.2% yoy/0.0% yoy
• 09:00 DE: Economic forecast of the DIW - German Institute for Economic Research
• 09:00 ES: GDP (1st release) 3Q FORECAST: +0.6% yoy/+2.9% yoy Q2: +0.8% yoy/+3.1% yoy | HICP and consumer prices (preliminary) October HICP FORECAST: +1.6% yoy previous: +1.7 yoy
• 09:55 DE: Labor market data October seasonally adjusted unemployment rate FORECAST: +15,000 yoy previously: +17,000 yoy Unemployment rate seasonally adjusted FORECAST: 6.1% previously: 6.0%
• 10:00 DE: GDP (1st release) 3Q calendar and seasonally adjusted yoy FORECAST: -0.1% yoy Q2: -0.1% yoy Q2: calendar-adjusted yoy FORECAST: -0.3% yoy Q2: 0.0% yoy
• 10:00 DE: Consumer prices Bavaria | Brandenburg | Hesse | Saxony | Baden-Württemberg October
• 10:00 IT: GDP (1st release) 3Q PROGNOSIS: +0.2% yoy/+0.8% yoy Q2: +0.2% yoy/+0.6% yoy
• 10:50 EU: ECB, allotment of a 7-day dollar tender
• 11:00 EU: GDP (1st release) 3Q Eurozone FORECAST: +0.2% yoy/+0.8% yoy Q2: +0.2% yoy/+0.6% yoy
• 11:00 EU: Economic Sentiment Index October Economic Sentiment Eurozone FORECAST: 96.3 Previous: 96.2 Industrial Confidence Eurozone FORECAST: -10.9 PREV: -10.9 Eurozone Consumer Confidence FORECAST: -12.5 PREV: -12.5 PREV: -12.9
• 11:00 EU: Eurozone Business Climate Index October
• 13:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report October Private Sector Employment Forecast: +113,000 jobs Previous: +143,000 jobs
• 13:30 US: GDP (1st release) 3Q annualized PROGNOSE: +3.1% yoy Q2: +3.0% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSE: +2.0% yoy Q2: +2.5% yoy
• 14:00 DE: Consumer prices (preliminary) October PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+1.8% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy/+1.6% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+2.1% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy

Thoughts on PayPal 🧐

After PayPal $PYPL (+3%) lost some ground today after the quarterly figures, I'm going to take a closer look at the company.

I have had PayPal on my extended watchlist for some time. The development of the business is now slowly picking up speed again and the valuation is attractive - especially with regard to the free cash flow yield of over 8% in particular.

Given the current valuation and growth, I see limited downside potential.

What do you think of PayPal? Do you see major problems ahead for the company that justify the valuation discount?

Stay tuned,

Yours Nico Uhlig aka RealMichaelScott

Stop loss has settled once again...