The 📈 Stock analysis vote of the week: week 09 📈 has a clear 🥇 Winner, it is Medical Properties Trust
$MPW with 20,32 % of the votes.

The complete analysis in web article format is available here:

https://investorsapiens.de/medical-properties-trust-chartanalyse-mpt-mpw/

1. Medical Properties Trust one of the largest real estate companies and dividend payers in the world.

Foreword to Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis

MPT Medical Properties Trust chart analysis is the winner of the community vote for "Stock Analysis of the Week: week 09" with over 22.32% of the votes. In recent weeks, MPT has been the target of serious allegations by Fraser Perring, a short seller who uncovered the Wirecard scandal a few years ago. In his report of January 26, he accuses Medical Properties Trust of balance sheet manipulation. In the case of Wirecard, the discovery of balance sheet manipulation led to insolvency, in the case of some other companies to the Verleumdungsklage against Viceroy Research, such as in the case of Pro-Sieben-Sat-1 in 2018. The current analysis is very difficult to classify and should be read to the end, because the most important question is whether to trust the good numbers or the accusations.

The company

MPT Medical Properties Trust is an American real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition and management of medical facilities. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

MPT's core business is to acquire, finance and operate medical facilities such as hospitals, nursing homes, surgical centers and rehabilitation hospitals. Medical Properties Trust currently has a portfolio of more than 440 facilities in the U.S., Europe and Australia. This includes some of the most prestigious medical facilities in the world. MPT uses the sale-leaseback model to acquire these facilities. Medical Properties Trust acquires the facilities from the owners and then leases them back to the owners.

MPT's business model is to enter into long-term leases with its tenants, typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. This allows Medical Properties Trust to generate stable cash flows and pay a high dividend to shareholders.

In fact, MPT is known for having one of the highest dividend payouts in the REIT sector. As of 04/03/2023, the dividend is $1.16, based on the daily share price of $10.53, Medical Properties Trust has a Dividend Yield of a proud 11%. Medical Properties Trust's dividend has been increased annually since 2013. This stable, high and growing dividend has attracted the interest of investors looking for a safe and stable source of dividends.

Quarterly figures Q4 2022

In terms of Finanzkennzahlen MPT has experienced solid growth in recent years.

• In 2022, Medical Properties Trust's revenue was $1.4 billion, an increase of 27% year-over-year.
• Medical Properties Trust's net income was $520 million in 2022, an increase of 24% from the previous year.
• The company had total assets of $11 billion and an equity ratio of 38% as of December 31, 2022.

2 Fraser Perring vs Medical Properties Trust

Fraser Perring, the "Wirecard Chaser".

Fraser Perring, short seller / shortseller and founder of Viceroy Research, also known as the "Wirecard Hunter", exposed irregularities at Wirecard in 2020. How the story turned out for Wirecard and many affected investors is probably known to most. The DAX-listed group became insolvent in 2020.

Viceroy Research and the accusations of balance sheet manipulation

On Jan. 26, 2023, Viceroy Research, or founder Fraser Perring, published a 33-page Report, in which Fraser accuses Perring Medical Properties Trust of inflating its balance sheets and profits.

One of the allegations is that Steward Health Care, a major customer responsible for a large portion of its revenues, has run into payment difficulties as a result of the COVID pandemic and is being kept alive by Medical Properties Trust with loans so that it in turn can pay its rents. If Steward Health Care were to experience payment difficulties, not only would a large portion of its rental income be lost, but a loan default would also result. The report also includes other allegations, such as non-transparent transactions that were conducted to MPT's detriment.

Viceroy Research does the math on page 4: Medical Properties Trust's fair value, in Viceroy Research's view, would be $3.34 to $4.45, nearly -70% below its current price. Further, Viceroy Research believes Medical Properties Trust will have no choice but to significantly cut its dividend.

Since the report's release, Medical Properties Trust's already beleaguered stock has lost nearly 30% from around $14 to $9.88.

Only time will tell if the allegations are justified and Medical Properties Trust is indeed involved in accounting manipulations and a dividend cut is imminent.

3. 13 Analyst Opinions on Medical Properties Trust

The current analyst sentiment on FactSets as of 02/26/2023 is as follows. From a total of 13 analysts rate:

• 7 buy
• 1 overweight
• 5 hold
• 0 underweight
• 0 sell

The analysts' sentiment is predominantly positive. The price potential for the year is currently seen at $14 with +32.90%. This is a very good price potential for a dividend stock, although it should be borne in mind here that the stock was at $14 a month ago and has lost 30% since the VR Report.

4. medical properties trust chart analysis

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis Upward Trend 2008 to 2020

After the Börsencrash 2008 (real estate and banking crisis), Medical Properties Trust was able to rise 700% within 11 years in a very stable upward trend. The previous all-time high was reached in 2020 at 24.3 dollars.

Medical Properties Trust Correction Chart Analysis

Starting in February 2020, Medical Properties Trust plummeted 50% in just one month with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic. Within 2 more years, the share price recovered and reached the previous all-time high again in 2022. After the confirmation of the all-time high from 2020, a strong long-term downward trend is established. The share price plunged by more than 60% within a year.

Currently, the share price is holding on to the support line at just under 10 dollars following the accusations by Viceroy Research. If the pressure does not ease, further declines to the Fibonacci retracement 23.6% at around 8 dollars are possible. On the other hand, volume has increased extremely in recent months. Very high volume at an extreme point (in this case, the current low) often means that stocks are changing hands in large quantities. Simply put, if everyone who wanted to sell has sold, then there are no more sellers to push the price down. Unless, of course, the valuation of the stock fundamentally changes and more selling impulses are added.

Here, however, you have to be careful, if the accusations of Viceroy Research are confirmed, then there are virtually no limits to the downside. After all, a dividend stock that cuts its dividend after balance sheet manipulation and loses the confidence of investors will not take long to find itself in the area of the old low at 3 dollars. Of course, it remains completely open whether this will happen.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis Indicators

In the long-term chart, a positive signal has emerged after the breakout from the medium-term downtrend (January 2022 to January 2023) with a positive MACD and RSI signal and a possible double bottom. With the publication of the Viceroy Research, the positive chart picture has cracked again. With the MACD, a negative signal is emerging again.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis: Downward Trend Broken. Back into the downtrend?

In the Daily Chart of Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis, with a candle duration of 1 day, the RSI and MACD indicator are negative, but slowly approaching the oversold area, from where positive signals from the oversold area are expected in the course of the next 1-2 weeks.

The price is both at the upper boundary of the broken downtrend, and at the previous support line from October 2022, from where a strong recovery started, which was only interrupted by the accusations of Viceroy Research at the end of January 2023.

4th Medical Properties Trust Stock Analysis Result

Environment and News

Medical Properties Trust presented good quarterly results Q4 2022, with revenue and profit growth, and a stable and currently very high dividend yield of over 11%. Also in 2022, the dividend was raised from 28 cents to 29 cents per quarter, representing a dividend increase of 3.6%.

The high dividend yield of currently 11% is largely the result of share price losses of almost -60% in the last 12 months. In January 2022, the dividend yield was 4.6% at a share price of about $24. After the publication of the Viceroy Research Report with the allegations of accounting manipulation, the share price lost -30% in value within just one month.

Viceroy Research / Fraser Perring has already uncovered the Wirecard accounting scandal, which led to Wirecard's insolvency. Whether the accusations are also true this time, or whether their own interest in depressing the price prevails here, no one can probably answer with certainty. The current short interest, i.e. the proportion of "short sold" shares, amounts to, as of today, according to information from Seeking-Alpha 18,72 %which means that almost every 5th to 6th share is sold short.

Sentiment of the analysts

The sentiment of the analysts is rather positive. The price target is positive at +32.90% at $14. It must be taken into account that the price has fallen by 30% within 1 month and was previously at $14.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis

In the long-term weekly chart, MACD and RSI were positive after a bottoming, but the chart picture was negatively affected with the Viceroy Research Report and -30% price drop. The MACD is signaling a negative signal again. The price is currently at the support line at around $10, where the price was able to catch in recent months and turned upwards under very high volume. High volume at a low is a good sign, but if the allegations are true, the boundary conditions change so seriously that the stock must be completely re-evaluated. However, the selling pressure due to bad news may cause a break of the previous bottom, in which case Lange will deteriorate significantly again.

In the short-term daily chart, both the MACD and RSI are negative, but approaching the oversold area.

Outlook

An analysis on a stock that is in the crossfire of hedge funds is always very difficult. Here, one must be aware that a hedge fund that is able to manipulate the price has a significant interest in seeing the price fall. This means that the price will usually be subject to repeated verbal or monetary attacks. Those who lack drama in their portfolio, or who are sure that Viceroy Research has nothing on their hands and who can rely on the positive numbers, have an easy game here.

The outlook can be roughly summarized as follows: if Viceroy Research's accusations are false, the stock looks good. A high dividend of over 11% and a short interest of over 18% are solid prerequisites for future price gains.

However, if Viceroy Research is right that the balance sheets are embellished or manipulated, and major customer Steward Health Care is in financial trouble, exposing both a billion-dollar loan to default risk and a large portion of rental income, then the share price will need to be reassessed. In principle, of course, it is a legitimate interest on the part of Medical Properties Trust to support its largest customer in difficult times, but on the other hand the risk is becoming greater and greater that the company, together with its major customer, will get into difficulties.

Here, everyone must decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take and which side they believe more.

Note: no investment advice and no purchase recommendation.

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