The 📈 Stock analysis vote of the week: week 09 📈 has a clear 🥇 Winner, it is Medical Properties Trust
$MPW with 20,32 % of the votes.

The complete analysis in web article format is available here:

https://investorsapiens.de/medical-properties-trust-chartanalyse-mpt-mpw/

1. Medical Properties Trust one of the largest real estate companies and dividend payers in the world.

Foreword to Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis

MPT Medical Properties Trust chart analysis is the winner of the community vote for "Stock Analysis of the Week: week 09" with over 22.32% of the votes. In recent weeks, MPT has been the target of serious allegations by Fraser Perring, a short seller who uncovered the Wirecard scandal a few years ago. In his report of January 26, he accuses Medical Properties Trust of balance sheet manipulation. In the case of Wirecard, the discovery of balance sheet manipulation led to insolvency, in the case of some other companies to the Verleumdungsklage against Viceroy Research, such as in the case of Pro-Sieben-Sat-1 in 2018. The current analysis is very difficult to classify and should be read to the end, because the most important question is whether to trust the good numbers or the accusations.

The company

MPT Medical Properties Trust is an American real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition and management of medical facilities. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

MPT's core business is to acquire, finance and operate medical facilities such as hospitals, nursing homes, surgical centers and rehabilitation hospitals. Medical Properties Trust currently has a portfolio of more than 440 facilities in the U.S., Europe and Australia. This includes some of the most prestigious medical facilities in the world. MPT uses the sale-leaseback model to acquire these facilities. Medical Properties Trust acquires the facilities from the owners and then leases them back to the owners.

MPT's business model is to enter into long-term leases with its tenants, typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. This allows Medical Properties Trust to generate stable cash flows and pay a high dividend to shareholders.

In fact, MPT is known for having one of the highest dividend payouts in the REIT sector. As of 04/03/2023, the dividend is $1.16, based on the daily share price of $10.53, Medical Properties Trust has a Dividend Yield of a proud 11%. Medical Properties Trust's dividend has been increased annually since 2013. This stable, high and growing dividend has attracted the interest of investors looking for a safe and stable source of dividends.

Quarterly figures Q4 2022

In terms of Finanzkennzahlen MPT has experienced solid growth in recent years.

• In 2022, Medical Properties Trust's revenue was $1.4 billion, an increase of 27% year-over-year.
• Medical Properties Trust's net income was $520 million in 2022, an increase of 24% from the previous year.
• The company had total assets of $11 billion and an equity ratio of 38% as of December 31, 2022.

2 Fraser Perring vs Medical Properties Trust

Fraser Perring, the "Wirecard Chaser".

Fraser Perring, short seller / shortseller and founder of Viceroy Research, also known as the "Wirecard Hunter", exposed irregularities at Wirecard in 2020. How the story turned out for Wirecard and many affected investors is probably known to most. The DAX-listed group became insolvent in 2020.

Viceroy Research and the accusations of balance sheet manipulation

On Jan. 26, 2023, Viceroy Research, or founder Fraser Perring, published a 33-page Report, in which Fraser accuses Perring Medical Properties Trust of inflating its balance sheets and profits.

One of the allegations is that Steward Health Care, a major customer responsible for a large portion of its revenues, has run into payment difficulties as a result of the COVID pandemic and is being kept alive by Medical Properties Trust with loans so that it in turn can pay its rents. If Steward Health Care were to experience payment difficulties, not only would a large portion of its rental income be lost, but a loan default would also result. The report also includes other allegations, such as non-transparent transactions that were conducted to MPT's detriment.

Viceroy Research does the math on page 4: Medical Properties Trust's fair value, in Viceroy Research's view, would be $3.34 to $4.45, nearly -70% below its current price. Further, Viceroy Research believes Medical Properties Trust will have no choice but to significantly cut its dividend.

Since the report's release, Medical Properties Trust's already beleaguered stock has lost nearly 30% from around $14 to $9.88.

Only time will tell if the allegations are justified and Medical Properties Trust is indeed involved in accounting manipulations and a dividend cut is imminent.

3. 13 Analyst Opinions on Medical Properties Trust

The current analyst sentiment on FactSets as of 02/26/2023 is as follows. From a total of 13 analysts rate:

• 7 buy
• 1 overweight
• 5 hold
• 0 underweight
• 0 sell

The analysts' sentiment is predominantly positive. The price potential for the year is currently seen at $14 with +32.90%. This is a very good price potential for a dividend stock, although it should be borne in mind here that the stock was at $14 a month ago and has lost 30% since the VR Report.

4. medical properties trust chart analysis

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis Upward Trend 2008 to 2020

After the Börsencrash 2008 (real estate and banking crisis), Medical Properties Trust was able to rise 700% within 11 years in a very stable upward trend. The previous all-time high was reached in 2020 at 24.3 dollars.

Medical Properties Trust Correction Chart Analysis

Starting in February 2020, Medical Properties Trust plummeted 50% in just one month with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic. Within 2 more years, the share price recovered and reached the previous all-time high again in 2022. After the confirmation of the all-time high from 2020, a strong long-term downward trend is established. The share price plunged by more than 60% within a year.

Currently, the share price is holding on to the support line at just under 10 dollars following the accusations by Viceroy Research. If the pressure does not ease, further declines to the Fibonacci retracement 23.6% at around 8 dollars are possible. On the other hand, volume has increased extremely in recent months. Very high volume at an extreme point (in this case, the current low) often means that stocks are changing hands in large quantities. Simply put, if everyone who wanted to sell has sold, then there are no more sellers to push the price down. Unless, of course, the valuation of the stock fundamentally changes and more selling impulses are added.

Here, however, you have to be careful, if the accusations of Viceroy Research are confirmed, then there are virtually no limits to the downside. After all, a dividend stock that cuts its dividend after balance sheet manipulation and loses the confidence of investors will not take long to find itself in the area of the old low at 3 dollars. Of course, it remains completely open whether this will happen.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis Indicators

In the long-term chart, a positive signal has emerged after the breakout from the medium-term downtrend (January 2022 to January 2023) with a positive MACD and RSI signal and a possible double bottom. With the publication of the Viceroy Research, the positive chart picture has cracked again. With the MACD, a negative signal is emerging again.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis: Downward Trend Broken. Back into the downtrend?

In the Daily Chart of Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis, with a candle duration of 1 day, the RSI and MACD indicator are negative, but slowly approaching the oversold area, from where positive signals from the oversold area are expected in the course of the next 1-2 weeks.

The price is both at the upper boundary of the broken downtrend, and at the previous support line from October 2022, from where a strong recovery started, which was only interrupted by the accusations of Viceroy Research at the end of January 2023.

4th Medical Properties Trust Stock Analysis Result

Environment and News

Medical Properties Trust presented good quarterly results Q4 2022, with revenue and profit growth, and a stable and currently very high dividend yield of over 11%. Also in 2022, the dividend was raised from 28 cents to 29 cents per quarter, representing a dividend increase of 3.6%.

The high dividend yield of currently 11% is largely the result of share price losses of almost -60% in the last 12 months. In January 2022, the dividend yield was 4.6% at a share price of about $24. After the publication of the Viceroy Research Report with the allegations of accounting manipulation, the share price lost -30% in value within just one month.

Viceroy Research / Fraser Perring has already uncovered the Wirecard accounting scandal, which led to Wirecard's insolvency. Whether the accusations are also true this time, or whether their own interest in depressing the price prevails here, no one can probably answer with certainty. The current short interest, i.e. the proportion of "short sold" shares, amounts to, as of today, according to information from Seeking-Alpha 18,72 %which means that almost every 5th to 6th share is sold short.

Sentiment of the analysts

The sentiment of the analysts is rather positive. The price target is positive at +32.90% at $14. It must be taken into account that the price has fallen by 30% within 1 month and was previously at $14.

Medical Properties Trust Chart Analysis

In the long-term weekly chart, MACD and RSI were positive after a bottoming, but the chart picture was negatively affected with the Viceroy Research Report and -30% price drop. The MACD is signaling a negative signal again. The price is currently at the support line at around $10, where the price was able to catch in recent months and turned upwards under very high volume. High volume at a low is a good sign, but if the allegations are true, the boundary conditions change so seriously that the stock must be completely re-evaluated. However, the selling pressure due to bad news may cause a break of the previous bottom, in which case Lange will deteriorate significantly again.

In the short-term daily chart, both the MACD and RSI are negative, but approaching the oversold area.

Outlook

An analysis on a stock that is in the crossfire of hedge funds is always very difficult. Here, one must be aware that a hedge fund that is able to manipulate the price has a significant interest in seeing the price fall. This means that the price will usually be subject to repeated verbal or monetary attacks. Those who lack drama in their portfolio, or who are sure that Viceroy Research has nothing on their hands and who can rely on the positive numbers, have an easy game here.

The outlook can be roughly summarized as follows: if Viceroy Research's accusations are false, the stock looks good. A high dividend of over 11% and a short interest of over 18% are solid prerequisites for future price gains.

However, if Viceroy Research is right that the balance sheets are embellished or manipulated, and major customer Steward Health Care is in financial trouble, exposing both a billion-dollar loan to default risk and a large portion of rental income, then the share price will need to be reassessed. In principle, of course, it is a legitimate interest on the part of Medical Properties Trust to support its largest customer in difficult times, but on the other hand the risk is becoming greater and greater that the company, together with its major customer, will get into difficulties.

Here, everyone must decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take and which side they believe more.

Note: no investment advice and no purchase recommendation.

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#mpt
#mpw
#dividende
$MPW

After a longer break again a stock analysis from me. This time without voting for the stock of the week, but since PayPal $PYPL has occupied the 2nd place for several weeks in a row anyway, this analysis was overdue.

The complete analysis in web article format can be found here:

https://investorsapiens.de/paypal-chartanalyse-aktienanalyse-aktie-a14r7u/

I don't know why I couldn't upload any images here at all this time, so only direct links to the images in the text.

1. PayPal the No. 1 online payment service

Preface to the PayPal chart analysis

In the past votes for the stock analysis of the week, PayPal occupied second place for several weeks in a row. With the publication of the quarterly figures on 08.05.2023 and a subsequent price drop of 20% within a few days, PayPal once again moved more into the focus and caused more and more discussions in forums and social networks with a historically low valuation.

The basic tenor: PayPal is finished, PayPal is history, Apple Pay replaces PayPal.

With this, I see the time for a PayPal analysis has come: We take a look at the latest news, figures, facts, analyst opinions and the long-term as well as medium-term PayPal chart analysis. After that, everyone should be able to form their own opinion about the PayPal share.

The company: PayPal

PayPal's history dates back to 1998, when the company was founded under the name "Confinity" by Peter Thiel, Max Levchin and Luke Nosek. Originally, the company focused on developing security software for mobile devices. In 2000, Confinity merged with X.com, an online banking company owned by Elon Musk, and changed its name to PayPal.

PayPal started as a payment system for eBay auctions and quickly revolutionized online commerce. The company allowed its customers to send and receive money securely and easily over the Internet. This led to tremendous growth, and PayPal quickly became the preferred and popular payment method for online purchases worldwide.

In 2002, PayPal went public and had an impressive IPO. That same year, the company was acquired by eBay, which immediately increased PayPal's popularity and usage. In the years that followed, PayPal expanded globally, building partnerships with major retailers and financial institutions.

In 2015, PayPal and eBay split into two independent companies. This allowed PayPal to focus more on its core businesses and further realize its growth potential. Since then, PayPal has become one of the leading global payments companies, operating in over 202 Märkten and 25 currencies worldwide.

PayPal's core businesses include online payments, merchant payment processing and peer-to-peer payments. The company offers its customers secure and convenient payment solutions that are attractive to both consumers and businesses. PayPal enables consumers to make payments using their PayPal account across the web, mobile devices and other platforms. For merchants, PayPal offers various tools and services to integrate payment options into their websites and apps.

In addition, PayPal has expanded its presence in the digital wallet space. PayPal entered the mobile peer-to-peer payments market with its acquisition of Venmo in 2013. Venmo allows users to send and receive money from each other easily and quickly through mobile apps. This expansion has helped PayPal continue to build its customer network and capitalize on new growth opportunities. Today, PayPal has over 435 million active users.

In recent years, PayPal has also entered the cryptocurrency space. The company allows users to buy, hold and sell cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. In a recent announcement to US-Börsenaufsicht (SEC) PayPal reported managing $943 million worth of cryptocurrencies. This reflects the growing trend and interest in digital currencies.

The PayPal competition

Not a day goes by that I don't come across a new discussion on Getquin, among other places, about the demise of PayPal. The main argument is usually Apple Pay, which is supposed to have replaced PayPal long ago. Is Apple Pay the PayPal killer?

Let's look at a pair of market share numbers.

How big is Apple's market share in Germany?

In 2023, Apple achieved a market share of total smartphone sales in Germany with the iPhone of around 34 Prozent.

How big is Apple's market share worldwide?

On the global market, Apple's market shares constantly range between 12 und 20 Prozent.

Can Apple Pay attract PayPal's market share? Yes. Can Apple Pay replace PayPal? Hardly.

According to a recent Statista survey (see image), 91% of respondents still use PayPal.

Image: https://investorsapiens.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/PayPal-Nutzerzahlen-technische-Analyse-2023-A14R7U.jpg

PayPal quarterly figures Q1 2023

The quarterly figures published on 08.05.2023 Q1 2023 earnings were positive and exceeded expectations.

Both profit and revenue were above the results of the previous year and also above forecasts.

Sales:

• 2023 earnings: USD 7.04 billion
• Forecast 2023: USD 6.98 billion
• Variance: +0,86 %
• Prior year Q1 2022: $6.48 billion
• Q1 2022 variance: +8,64 %

Earnings per share:

• Q1 2023 earnings: $1.17
• Q1 2023 forecast: $1.10
• Variance: +6,36 %
• Prior year Q1 2022: $0.88
• Q1 2022 deviation: +32,95 %

Currently, PayPal's share price is at the 2017 price level and has a P/E ratio of 26 today.

For comparison, some key figures of PayPal from 2017:

• Revenue: $13.09 billion (Q1 2023 $7.04 billion)
• Earnings per share: $1.32 (Q1 2023 $1.17)
• Active users: 226 million (Q1 2023: 435 million)
• KGV: 50 (Q1 2023: 26)

Here we can see that the stock is trading at a more than double discount compared to 2017. We have the same share price valuation today with twice the number of users, first quarter (3 of 12 months) 2023 revenue is more than half of the full year 2017 revenue. The difference is even more pronounced in earnings per share. 2017 annual earnings were only 15% higher than 2023 first quarter earnings.

PayPal latest news and dates

Dan Schulman (65) the president and CEO of PayPal announced his retirement as president and CEO of PayPal on February 09, 2023 at the end of 2023. He has been CEO of PayPal since 2015 and took over the company after the separation from eBay. He is moving to the board of directors. His successor has not yet been announced.

The company, which was founded by star investor Ray Dalio takes advantage of the decline in the share price to buy more shares. According to a notification to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bridgewater Associates has increased its stake in PayPal by almost 60 percent to 1.55 million shares.

In particular, the announcement of the new CEO can provide a significant price movement both up and down.

2. 48 Analyst Opinions on PayPal

The current analyst sentiment as of 05/14/2023 on. Consorsbank / FactSets looks as follows. Out of a total of 48 analysts rate:

• 29 buy
• 5 overweight
• 14 hold
• 0 underweight
• 0 sell

The analysts' sentiment is positive. The price potential for the year is currently seen at $93.50 at 51.46%.

3. PayPal chart analysis and technical analysis

PayPal chart analysis since 2015

Image: https://investorsapiens.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/PayPal-Chartanalyse-technische-Analyse-2023-A14R7U-scaled.jpg

After the spin-off from eBay, PayPal grew rapidly to become the No. 1 online payment service, and the company's valuation also soared to dizzying heights during the same period. In 6 years from 2015 to 2021, PayPal's share price increased by over 800%. The growth accelerated especially with the outbreak of the corona pandemic and the boom of online businesses.

In just a single year from 2020 to 2021, the stock price rose nearly 300%. Like most tech companies, PayPal marked its all-time high in mid-2021. Shortly thereafter, the general correction of the technology industry and a generally difficult interest rate environment began, followed by the Ukraine war and the end of the Corona pandemic.

PayPal Crash Chart Analysis

Since July 2021, the stock has been in a 2-year correction of about 80% so far after the formation of the double top. In February 2022, PayPal reached the Fibonacci retracement 23.6% from where the price started to recover, it went up almost 35%. However, with the start of the war, interest rates continuing to rise and the end of the corona pandemic, the recoveries were not sustainable and the price marked further lows. Within the last almost 12 months, the share price oscillated in a falling wedge. After the publication of the good quarterly figures, it went down with a massive volume spike and a sell off. Presumably, several stop-loss orders were triggered here.

PayPal indicators

In the long-term weekly chart, the RSI indicator is in the oversold territory. The MACD shows no clear signals in the long-term chart.

PayPal breakout or false breakout?

Image: https://investorsapiens.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/PayPal-Chartanalyse-technische-Analyse-Mai-2023-A14R7U-scaled.jpg

In the Daily Chart of PayPal chart analysis, with a candle duration of 1 day, the RSI indicator is in the oversold zone with a value of 29.57. MACD is also oversold, but a reversal signal is still missing. The price has fallen out of the falling wedge with a massive sell-off with a huge volume spike, triggering many stop loss orders.

Extremely high volume at a low is often a trend reversal point, since the sellers have already been taken out of the market, further selling pressure is usually missing.

4. PayPal Stock Analysis Result

Environment and News

The latest Q1 2023 numbers as of 08/05/2023 look good for PayPal stock. With the upcoming change of the CEO (Dan Schulman moves to the Board of Directors) by the end of the year and the lack of announcement of the successor, there are both opportunities and risks. Both upside and downside price turbulence should be expected here. The outlook for the full year 2023 is positive.

According to Statista, PayPal is still the clear number 1 among online payment services.

The current interest rate environment is weighing on PayPal, but a prospect of falling interest rates should have a stimulating and positive effect again.

Sentiment of the analysts

The analysts' sentiment is positive. The price target is promising at 51.46% at $93.50 for the year.

Recently, it was announced that Ray Dalio's hedge fund Bridgewater Associates has increased its investment in PayPal by 60%.

PayPal Chart Analysis

I'm repeating a statement here that I make very rarely because it happens so rarely. The last time I said this was with Tesla and Meta:

Quote from Meta ChartanalyseA correction extension, or in this case rather a crash of more than 77% and thus reaching the Fibonacci Retracment 23.6% is extremely rare and only occurs with insolvent companies.. This can be a unique opportunity for anti-cyclical prospective buyers.

Quote from Tesla Chartanalyse: The correction has already reached an extension to Fibonacci retracement 23.6%, which is sufficient for a non-insolvent company can be considered as sufficient. The Fibonacci retracement area reached is seldom significantly undershot.

Exactly this rare case we see here. PayPal is currently trading at a discount of 80% and well below the Fibonacci retracement 23.6% and thus the PayPal share is rated as an insolvency candidate. Which is also reflected in the discussions in the forums and social media. The share price is the same as in 2017, where in 2017 the number of active users, revenue and earnings per share were a fraction of what PayPal is presenting today.

Today, Meta's share price, which was declared dead just a few months ago, is +170% above its low. Tesla's share price at +117% above the low. No, that doesn't mean PayPal stock will immediately rise 100%. It is quite possible that PayPal will declare its insolvency at the annual general meeting and run towards 0, or that the share will rumble around at this level for another year; nothing is ruled out on the stock market and nothing is certain. But is an insolvency of PayPal likely or even decided?

Outlook

As a self-confessed anti-cyclic, I do not see any signs of insolvency in PayPal with the currently available information and thus see an undervaluation of the share. Everyone should form his own opinion and be aware of the risks. This is not a buy recommendation. This analysis is intended to bring a little variety to the monotonous "Apple Pay replaces PayPal" discussion and to make people think.

Notice: not an investment advice and not a recommendation to buy.

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#paypal

The 📈 Stock analysis vote of the week: week 08 📈 has a clear 🥇 winnerit is Allianz $ALV with 40,59 % of the votes.

At the same time, it is also the first stock analysis on a stock from my personal so-called "defensive core" (ETFs and dividend stocks) that I cover regardless of the market situation, so this time a somewhat greater focus on facts and figures than on chart analysis, but even that will not be missing.

The complete analysis in web format is here:

https://investorsapiens.de/allianz-chartanalyse-technische-aktienanalyse/

1.Allianz one of the world's leading insurers, asset managers and dividend payers.

Foreword to the stock analysis

Allianz is the winner of the community vote for "Stock Analysis of the Week: Week08" with over 40.59% of the votes. Allianz is also the first stock from the analysis series so far that belongs to the "defensive core" according to my investment strategy together with ETFs and is not a growth stock but a defensive dividend stock.

Allianz SE

Allianz SE is a German company based in Munich that provides insurance and financial services. The history of Allianz dates back to 1890, when it was founded as Allianz Versicherungs-AG. Since then, the company has had an impressive growth story and is now one of the largest insurance companies in the world.

In the 1920s, Allianz expanded internationally, opening offices in Europe, Asia and North America. During World War II, the company suffered heavy losses, but was able to grow again in the post-war years through targeted acquisitions. In the 1990s, Allianz began to focus more on financial services and acquired Dresdner Bank, among others. Today, Allianz operates in more than 70 countries and employs more than 159,000 people (as of February 17, 2023).

Allianz's core businesses are insurance and asset management. In the area of insurance, Allianz offers a wide range of insurance products, including life, health, accident, property and motor insurance. In 2023, Allianz generated revenues of approximately 78 billion euros in the Insurance segment.

In the asset management sector, Allianz operates through its subsidiary Allianz Global Investors. Here, the company offers a wide range of investment products and services, including equity funds, bond funds, multi-asset funds and alternative investments such as private equity and infrastructure. In 2023, Allianz Global Investors' assets under management amounted to around 621 billion euros.

Allianz is listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and is one of the blue-chip companies in the German DAX share index. The Allianz share is popular with investors due to its stable business development and solid dividend policy. For the year 2022, the dividend per share is 11.40 euros (distribution in May 2023).

Quarterly figures (as of February 17, 2023)

The most important Quartalszahlen of Allianz as of February 17 are:

• Allianz Group total revenue increased 2.8% to 152.671 billion euros in 2022.
• Allianz Group operating profit increased by 5.7% to 14.164 billion euros in 2022.
• Allianz Group net income grew by 1.08 % to 7.182 billion euros in 2022.
• The dividend per share for fiscal 2022 was increased from 10.80 euros to 11.40 euros. A dividend increase of +5.6 %.

Allianz showed a robust performance across all businesses and regions despite the ongoing challenges from the Corona pandemic and litigation.

Allianz also confirmed its 2023 targets and provided a positive outlook for the future. In addition, Allianz is launching a share buyback program.

Share buyback program 2022/II

Allianz has been conducting regular share buybacks since 2017 to return excess capital to shareholders and increase return on equity. The current Aktienrückkaufprogramm 2022/II program is defined as follows:

• The current volume of the program is 1 billion euros.
• The buyback started on November 21, 2022 and is scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2023 at the latest.
• The first tranche of the program with a volume of 0.3 billion euros was completed on December 15, 2022.
• The second tranche of the program with a volume of up to €0.7 billion began on January 16, 2023 and runs to date.

Allianz has spent a total of around €9 billion on share buybacks since 2017, reducing around 8% of the share capital.

Allianz intends to continue to carry out further share buybacks in the future, if the financial situation and market conditions allow.

2. 20x analyst opinions on Allianz

The current analyst sentiment on FactSets as of 02/19/2023 is as follows. Out of a total of 20 analysts rate:

• 13 buy
• 1 overweight
• 6 hold
• 0 underweight
• 0 sell

The analysts' sentiment is very positive. The price potential for the year is currently seen at 250 euros at +15.69%. This is a very good price potential for a defensive dividend share.

The Analysehaus Jefferies expects the share buyback program to be expanded by a further billion in its report of 22.02.23 and confirms a buy recommendation.

Analysten von Berenberg see a price potential of over 40% after the quarterly figures.

3 Allianz chart analysis and technical analysis

Allianz Chart Analysis Upward Trend 2008 to 2020

After the Börsencrash 2008 (real estate and banking crisis), Allianz was able to rise by 300 % within 12 years in a very stable upward trend. The rise was ended in 2020 with a strong 50% correction of the overall market after the start of the Corona pandemic.

Allianz chart analysis of the correction

Since February/March 2020, after the 50% COVID crash, the stock has been in a sideways movement, oscillating between 230 and 160 euros. With the current valuation of 215 euros, Allianz is close to the upper limit. In the short term, the share price is somewhat overbought in the weekly chart and is losing momentum with the ongoing short-term correction movement. The medium-term uptrend since September 2022 was left to the downside 2 weeks ago, but this does not lead to a strong downward movement. The company is excellently positioned and provides additional value stability with its share buyback program.

Allianz Chart Analysis Indicators

In the long-term chart, a weakening of the MACD indicator can be seen after the break of the medium-term uptrend (September 2022 to January 2023) close to the multi-year resistance line at around 230 euros. No MACD signal has been triggered so far, but I expect the signal to follow within the next 2 weeks. The RSI indicator has turned at the overbought area of 70 points and is currently negative. The short-term correction has been running for 2 weeks and is currently just under -5%.

Allianz chart analysis: Upward trend broken?

In the Daily Chart, with a candle duration of 1 day, the RSI and MACD indicator are negative, but slowly approaching the cooled area, from where positive signals are expected in the course of the next 1-2 weeks.

A short-term correction has already been underway for 2 weeks. The good quarterly figures have a supporting effect, so that no large downward movement has been observed so far.

4 Allianz stock analysis result

Environment and news

The Allianz share convinces with good quarterly figures Q4 2022, revenue growth, dividend increase of 5.6% and a share buyback program worth billions.

Sentiment of the analysts

The analysts' sentiment is clearly positive. The price target of +15.69% at 250 euros is impressive for a stable value and defensive dividend stock. Analysts at the private bank Berenberg raised the forecast to over 40% a few days ago. As of today, there is not a single sell recommendation from the analyst houses.

Allianz Chart Analysis

In the long-term weekly chart, the MACD and the RSI indicators are overbought. The share has been in a short-term correction movement within the sideways movement between 230 and 160 euros for 2 weeks. In the process, the price turned 2 weeks ago close to the upper limit downward and broke the medium-term upward movement (September 2022 to January 2023) downward. However, this does not lead to any major downside, because positive quarterly figures, as well as the share buyback program support. A continuation of the correction to the area of approx. 207 euros is realistic.

In the short-term daily chart, we see a cooling of the overbought RSI and MACD indicators. The short-term correction has already been running for about 2 weeks. Within the next 1 - 2 weeks, the indicators could turn again.

Outlook

As mentioned at the beginning, Allianz is part of the defensive portfolio core according to my investment strategy (consisting of ETFs and stable dividend stocks), which I cover and hold via savings plans according to the passive buy-and-hold strategy, regardless of the current price. The long-term chart picture is still positive, the short-term chart picture is negative. The share is in a short-term correction at the upper limit of the multi-year sideways movement since February 2022 at around 230 euros. However, the fundamental data continue to be convincing. Allianz shines with good quarterly figures and buys back its own shares with a share buyback program worth billions.

PS: The voting for the stock analysis of the week KW09 starts vsl. tomorrow. ❤️

Note: no investment advice and no purchase recommendation.

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#allianz
#dividende
$ALV

Blackrock misses EPS by almost 10%. The chart extends a rare "I don't give a fuck" pattern. #ta
#chartanalyse

Presentation and ask for feedback

Hello all,

on the occasion of my one-year anniversary at getquin 🎉 and after just under a year of passive reading along, I would like to introduce myself briefly here.

I am Tim, 38 years old, stock market veteran.

I've been hanging around the stock market since 2007. Back then, unlike today, the stock market was completely unspectacular, there was no social media, no platforms like Getquin and no broker apps in your pocket on your smartphone. Anyway, I was highly motivated and discovered the stock market for myself and leveraged as if there was no tomorrow. Of course, what had to come, the stock market crash 2007 / 2008 with the banking crisis followed only a few months after my entry. The money was not gone, it just had someone else 🤡.

Fortunately, the teaching fee was not worth mentioning at the time, because as a low-income earner / student I did not have much to lose, but it was still a valuable experience and probably saved me from making bigger mistakes.

The first 5 years or so I lived parallel to my studies on the stock market, 📚 read books on the subject of the stock market, technical analysis and stock market psychology and put every euro that was not in a tree on the tree in the depot.

At that time I was still a convinced trader, but became more and more tired of trading every year. After graduation, I made a cut in 2012. The capital I had earned by then went into my first property and I devoted most of my time after graduation to a career outside the stock market. I reduced my time on the stock exchange to a few hours per week. Trading became investing.

Sharing is caring <3

The current crisis, the hype around Bitcoin, cryptos, GameStop and Wallstreetbets reminded me a lot of my beginnings, my student days and my first steps on the stock market at that time. Therefore, I thought to myself, let others share your knowledge.

You might be asking yourself: wat does this guy want from me? I'll get to that in a minute.

I have left trading behind me, but technical analysis has remained a beloved hobby to this day. I still don't invest a cent in a stock (I'll leave ETF savings plans out of this) without first examining it technically, among other things. Even though I now only invest for the long term, investing without prior stock analysis would feel like flying blind to me.

But I miss a bit the exchange and input from the outside, on the one hand to interesting investment ideas, on the other hand to my own analyses. And that's why this post.

Exchange of ideas among like-minded people

Again and again I read here questions like "What do you think about the stock XYZ".

Apart from the fact that in my opinion you should always decide for yourself what to do with your money, it can't hurt to inform yourself a bit more broadly and listen to others opinions without commitment. So I thought, why don't I just post my analysis and share some investment ideas with you guys?

A week ago I started to post my analyses online (currently there are 4 ($TSLA
$AMZN
$BAS
$AAPL ), every week 1-2 more will be added). Such an analysis consists of:

- Research of the news around the share and the concerned industry

- review of analysts' opinions, who have examined fundamental data in their studies

- a technical analysis from my side

From the 3 sub-analyses, a consistent picture and an investment opportunity may result, or there is no consistent picture and the stock moves to the watchlist until the situation improves.

As an example, the analysis published a week ago on Tesla $TSLA from 21.01.23

https://investorsapiens.de/tesla-aktie-chartanalyse-technische-analyse/

The week after it went up almost 35% 🚀. Of course, this is not a result of chart analysis, nor is it about making xx% in one week, but simply to neutrally and objectively examine one's investment ideas, minimize risks and recognize opportunities. The opportunity with Tesla was recognizable.

Is there interest in an exchange?

My question at this point would be: are there interested people among you who want to exchange ideas about shares without any results, or is a FTSE All World /MSCI World ETF the highest of feelings and exciting enough for most of you?

I would also be interested in your input on new investment ideas. What do you think could be the next big thing and the next megatrend? What stock do you think best represents that niche? If you want to suggest a stock to analyze, I would be happy to look at it and then share the result with you.

#ta
#vorstellung
#chartanalyse
#growth

Of course, the obligatory hint must not be missing 🤓: no investment advice, no recommendation to buy only non-binding and open exchange of ideas. Everything can, nothing must. I do not want to sell anything and do not want to found an analyst sect. Is only about cultivated exchange of information.

An impromptu unplanned stock analysis on Alphabet Google.

Due to the current violent price movements in the share, and because many probably the finger itches to go all-in immediately here on the quick made analysis.

https://investorsapiens.de/alphabet-aktie-chartanalyse-technische-analyse/

If you have not noticed, the current price drop comes after yesterday's live show in Paris.

Google presented its AI Brad in a live show and wanted to stop the unchecked triumphant march of ChatGPT. This failed because Brad answered 1 of 3 questions incorrectly and thus probably did not meet expectations.

This has led to the fact that the actually perfect chart picture of Alphabet was noticeably affected. In the long term, it still looks good from my point of view, but in the short term in the daily chart, it looks very suboptimal.

I suspect that Google will not let this stand and will take countermeasures. Hopefully, we will soon find out whether this succeeds.

Conclusion of the analysis:

The first battle of the ChatGPT AI against Brad goes to Microsoft. The live presentation of Alphabet's AI Brad led to over 13% share price loss within 24 hours with an incorrect answer to the question about the James Webb Space Telescope. With its investment in the AI ChatGPT, Microsoft remains in the lead for the time being, Google's first reaction fails.

The analyst sentiment is clearly positive. The price target, at 31.43% at $125 for the year, is in order. Whether the analysts adjust the assessment after yesterday's presentation remains to be seen.

It is particularly exciting in the Alphabet chart analysis:

In the long-term weekly chart, the MACD and the RSI indicator are positive, with the formation of the double bottom at the Fibonacci retracement 50% and the breakout from the downward trend, the 16-month correction would be completed. With the price drop due to the failed show in Paris, the short-term chart picture clouds significantly.

In the short-term daily chart, we see negative MACD and RSI indicators, which means that the rise in recent weeks led to an overbought situation and the momentum has tipped. The reversion to the downtrend looks bad in this context. If Google does not manage to calm down the next few days, a retest of the previous bottom at the Fibo 50% may take place.

In the long term, the stock continues to look good, in the short term, the risk of further setbacks is quite realistic due to the chart situation and the news. At the same time, however, this could also be an opportunity for risk-averse long-term investors to take advantage of the setback.

This is not an investment advice and not a buy recommendation.

#chartanalyse
#ta
#aktienanalyse
#alphabet
#google

Warning: meta-skeptics should not read on here, can lead to high blood pressure and gasping 🥲

As threatened the day before yesterday, I have tinkered a little meta analysis and thereby also answered the question directed at me, why I am positive about meta.

https://investorsapiens.de/meta-aktie-chartanalyse-technische-analyse/

What is the article about?

• A few data about Meta (Facebook)
• Why some hate Meta, but I don't
• Why analysts mostly see the stock as a buy but the price target is negative 🤔
• Chart analysis
• Conclusion

The full detailed analysis with pictures can be found at the link, I can't get it formatted correctly here.

I'll post the conclusion and chart image here as well.

My conclusion is:

The numbers currently look bad, Mark is investing 10 billion+/year in the AR/VR/META division, profits are a long time coming so far. But he believes in what he is doing and is buying back shares.

Meta has been hugely punished, a plunge of more than 77% is either a cleanup of stop loss limits or a bet on insolvency soon. Since the price immediately rose by more than 100% after the sharp dip below Fibo 23.6%, the former could be the case.

For me as a long-term anti-cyclical, the share was a buy after the sharp crash, so I am also invested here relaxed with a small position of about 3% (risk management) of the portfolio. If the plan works out, the 3% will be enough to grow into a heavyweight in the portfolio.

Currently, the stock is somewhat overheated in the RSI due to the 100% increase and could reset back to the uptrend (approx. at Fibo 38.2), otherwise I am positive here in the long term because I believe in AR + AI as a giant market.

$META

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#meta

Here comes the promised bonus stock analysis extra for @DonkeyInvestor and 6.19% more donkeys who voted for ETSY 😅 ❤️

Today there was to the ETSY 🔥 Breaking News 🔥 the well-known hedge fund Citron Research, which was involved in the GameStop scandal a few years ago has today raised serious allegations against ETSY via tweet and published a research. In it, ETSY is accused of tolerating and allowing counterfeiting. As a result, the share price plummeted by 8.5% within one day.

The otherwise quite good-looking chart and the strongly increased sales, as well as the share buyback program are thus cracked.

https://investorsapiens.de/etsy-chartanalyse-technische-analyse-a14p98/

ETSY Share Analysis Result

Environment and News

ETSY stock benefits from good quarterly figures Q4 2022 and strong revenue growth of 46%, as well as the share buyback program.

However, the stock loses 8.5% in one day after Citron Research's severe accusations.

Sentiment of the analysts

The analysts' sentiment is neutral to positive. The price target of -1.00% at $129 slightly lags the current share price. However, caution is advised here. The analysts' sentiment is dated 02/12/2023 and does not yet take into account the current accusations from Citron Research.

https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Citron-Exposes-the-Dirty-Secrets-of-Etsy.pdf

ETSY Chart Analysis

In the long-term weekly chart, the MACD and RSI indicators are positive, with the formation of the double bottom at the Fibonacci retracement 23.6% and confirmation of the old high of 2019, as well as the breakout from the downtrend, the 9-month 78% correction is complete.

In the short-term daily chart, we see overbought RSI and MACD indicators after the 120% rise. Today's drop puts the stock at the lower support of the uptrend. Should the trend channel be abandoned to the downside, further profit-taking may set in.

Outlook

In the long term, the chart looks good after the correction. Rising sales and the share buyback program are also positive. However, the allegations of Citron Research can destroy the positive picture. Citron Research may be known to some from the story around Wallstreetbets / GameStop.

Note: no investment advice and no recommendation to buy.

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#etsy
$ETSY

A mini update on my Alphabet $GOOGL Analysis from 09.02.23:

Almost 3 weeks ago, I had "warned" after the 13% 24-hour crash after the show to KI BRAD in Paris to rush ALL-IN in the share to go, because I had seen that some wanted to bet with leveraged bills on rising prices, but the chart did not look too good.

Small excerpt from the analysis (found in the profile) from 09.02.2023:

"Due to the current violent price movements in the share, and because many probably the finger itches to go all-in immediately here is a quickly made analysis.

In the short-term daily chart, we see negative MACD and RSI indicators, which means that the rise in recent weeks led to an overbought situation. The reversion to the downtrend looks bad in this context. If Google fails to calm down in the next few days, we may see a retest of the previous bottom at the Fibo 50%."

Fibo 50 was just reached, the indicators MACD and RSI are still negative in the daily chart but no longer in the overbought zone. Could be exciting again the days.

#ta
#chartanalyse
#google
#alphabet

📈 Stock analysis vote of the week: week 08 📈

With statistics and review of the old analyses

Hello friends of stock analysis,

the WEEK 07 is finished, I thank you all for your participation. ❤️

Small review of the voting of week 07:

Participated in total 239 top investors 🚀 (+31 % 🔥 compared to the previous week) with the
views were +69 % compared to the previous week (14 % voted). Share suggestions came only from @DonkeyInvestorbut in return he also got his own stock analysis 😉

In the 07th week was 🥇 NVIDIA $NVDA
with 40% of the votes on place 1.

2nd place was taken by 🥈 PayPal $PYPL
with 15.06% of the votes.

This time there was a bonus analysis from the suggestions of the community. The share $ETSY won the bonus analysis with 6,28 % of the votes.

Both analyses:
$NVDA

and $ETSY

are online and can be found via my profile.

Small review of the analyses of the KW 06 + 07:

WEEK 06:

Microsoft $MSFT Analysis was positive in the long term, overbought in the short term with correction potential. The share has corrected by -6% since the analysis.

Alphabet
$GOOGL Analysis was positive in the long term, in the short term due to the news (error of KI BRAD during the live show in Paris) with correction potential. The stock continues to consolidate sideways at -3% after the -13% plunge. The short-term battered chart picture is still valid, but can be turned quickly by a positive news from Alphabet.

WEEK 07:

NVIDIA $NVDA Analysis was positive in the long term, overbought in the short term with correction potential. Share gives off another approx. -4% in the last 3 days.

ETSY $ETSY Analysis was positive in the long term from the chart picture as well as the company figures, overbought in the short term and with the accusations of Citron Research against ETSY corrections must be expected. Share loses after -8.5% on Thursday further almost -2% on Friday.

The vote for the 8th week starts immediately.

All shares of the last week minus the two winners are available for voting. Additionally I add according to "most wanted shares of onvista" the Bayer share to it. According to getquin the most wanted shares are additionally Allianz $ALV , Mercedes-Benz
$MBG and Tesla $TSLA . Since I have the Tesla already analyzed and updated with an update, I let Tesla for the time being.

📣 Suggestions from the community are expressly desired! Write your suggestions in the comments. Dare, costs nothing 😉

🤝 My request to all who have read the analyses so far, but have not voted themselves. I would be happy if the activity continues to increase. The more of you participate, the more exciting and varied the stock analyses will be. 🤝

All analyses published so far can be found here in my profile or here:

https://investorsapiens.de/news-analysen/

$PYPL
$DBK
$PLUG
$NEL
$GTLB
$YOU
$ALV
$MBG
$BAYN
$TRVG

#ta
#chartanalyse
#aktienanalyse
#abstimmung
#paypal
#biontech
#deutschebank
#nel
#plug
#gtlb
#aboutyou
#bayer
#benz