Gold - (k)a safe haven?
(from the series: Your question about precious metals - part 2)
@HerkshireBathaway321 writes:
"... With me the ",crack" goes unfortunately by the family. My spouse trusts to a high degree the (physical) gold.
I am skeptical.
Gold could have had a "3" in front of it with all the distortions of the last years, but at least in the range above 2000 dollars.
None of this is in evidence, prices remain feelingly unimpressed by Corona, war fears, climate change, etc.
My concern is that for the first time in history, gold's role as a "safe haven" may be lost...."
The consideration and fear of whether gold could be a safe haven is a matter of faith.
The question, therefore, is indeed very much an individual one. As described in my post "All gold that glitters?!" (see: https://app.getquin.com/activity/ApWcaXFtjm?lang=de&utm_source=sharing
https://app.getquin.com/activity/ApWcaXFtjm?lang=de&utm_source=sharing), the question can therefore be answered in different ways.
As you can see in the current situation and price development on the precious metal market, I was not so wrong with my assessment a little more than 4 months ago, even if the reasons are probably to be considered differentiated.
At that time I explained under the contribution of @MaxD [source 1] my view regarding the development of the price of gold and "safe haven" issue as follows:
"...The price of gold will still rise with the next interest rate hikes in the EU and the USA, but then slowly join the bears in the market. Either we will then experience a phase of sideways movement or a correction due to the very fact that "you can't eat gold".
One should also keep an eye on the situation in China, here, in addition to gold, currency effects also play a decisive role."
As far as the reasons for such a development are concerned, this is of course to be seen and evaluated in a differentiated manner, as mentioned. Also, the possible reasons in the business can be combined or excluded with the price development and forecast.
Here, nevertheless, different influences play decisive roles... Emergency banks which are on big gold purchase tour [Source 2], but at the same time rising interest rates [source 3] and then the more and more tricky situation in Ukraine... not to mention all the supply chain problems etc. etc.
So why should gold (as industrial metal, speculative object and technology metal) be spared from this? The correlations are just as obvious as with shares or other assets.
Another point that should definitely be considered with gold (as mentioned in my comment at the time...) are the currency effects: The strong dollar has a very different impact on the gold price in USD (1 year: -6.76%) than the resulting valuations for gold in Euro (1 year: +8.68%). 💰 [Graphs 1&2]
If "I" assume that gold will always and increasingly find use as an industrial/technology metal, this is a different scenario than relying on the pure "shine" of the metal....
However, since industrial metals are also always tied to economic situations, the price development is accordingly also understandably coupled (keyword: recession).
As I already stated above: The importance of gold as a technological material is not to be despised and therefore also a reflection of the current, global problems of industry and not least mankind.
What you or your family believe in is therefore quite individual for everyone. Of course, a lump of gold in your home safe can also calm your nerves. If your "spouse" feels security in it, it is at least mentally an important "harbor". ⚓️
What do "we" always say here? The asset has to fit your own risk affinity and imagination. 💡
The idea of the "safe haven" must therefore be reconsidered insofar as one's own interpretation of it must be found.
A right or wrong regarding gold, but also any other asset, is therefore always tied to one's own subjective goal of this asset class and one's own risk tolerance.
Sources:
[1] Contribution of @MaxD (https://app.getquin.com/activity/sPofciTMxJ?lang=de&utm_source=sharing
https://app.getquin.com/activity/sPofciTMxJ?lang=de&utm_source=sharing)
[2] The gold tricks of the central banks - FAZ of 02.11.2022 (https://m.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/die-gold-tricks-der-notenbanken-400-tonnen-gekauft-18431135.html?premium=0xd14578aa8949f9b04175a9e1ac2e8304&premium=0xd14578aa8949f9b04175a9e1ac2e8304&GEPC=s9)
[2] Why gold fails as inflation protection- ARD from 07.01.2022 (https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/finanzen/warum-gold-als-inflations-hedge-versagt-und-aktien-besser-sind-101.html)
Image sources:
[Image 1] Not a safe haven? - Hamburg - Symbol image from Hamburg24 (https://www.24hamburg.de/hamburg/wetter-sturm-hamburg-unwetter-sturmflut-hochwasser-flughafen-sturmschaeden-fischmarkt-dwd-deutsche-bahn-sturmtief-sabine-hermine-90002020.html)
[Image 2 and 3] Gold price in Euro and USD from gold.de - view on 1 year.
#gold
#rohstoffe
#meinung#fragedelmetalle
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For app users:
Opinion on gold - neutral 🤷🏻♂️🤷♀️
