The 📈 Stock analysis vote of the week: week 08 📈 has a clear 🥇 winnerit is Allianz $ALV with 40,59 % of the votes.
At the same time, it is also the first stock analysis on a stock from my personal so-called "defensive core" (ETFs and dividend stocks) that I cover regardless of the market situation, so this time a somewhat greater focus on facts and figures than on chart analysis, but even that will not be missing.
The complete analysis in web format is here:
https://investorsapiens.de/allianz-chartanalyse-technische-aktienanalyse/
1.Allianz one of the world's leading insurers, asset managers and dividend payers.
Foreword to the stock analysis
Allianz is the winner of the community vote for "Stock Analysis of the Week: Week08" with over 40.59% of the votes. Allianz is also the first stock from the analysis series so far that belongs to the "defensive core" according to my investment strategy together with ETFs and is not a growth stock but a defensive dividend stock.
Allianz SE
Allianz SE is a German company based in Munich that provides insurance and financial services. The history of Allianz dates back to 1890, when it was founded as Allianz Versicherungs-AG. Since then, the company has had an impressive growth story and is now one of the largest insurance companies in the world.
In the 1920s, Allianz expanded internationally, opening offices in Europe, Asia and North America. During World War II, the company suffered heavy losses, but was able to grow again in the post-war years through targeted acquisitions. In the 1990s, Allianz began to focus more on financial services and acquired Dresdner Bank, among others. Today, Allianz operates in more than 70 countries and employs more than 159,000 people (as of February 17, 2023).
Allianz's core businesses are insurance and asset management. In the area of insurance, Allianz offers a wide range of insurance products, including life, health, accident, property and motor insurance. In 2023, Allianz generated revenues of approximately 78 billion euros in the Insurance segment.
In the asset management sector, Allianz operates through its subsidiary Allianz Global Investors. Here, the company offers a wide range of investment products and services, including equity funds, bond funds, multi-asset funds and alternative investments such as private equity and infrastructure. In 2023, Allianz Global Investors' assets under management amounted to around 621 billion euros.
Allianz is listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and is one of the blue-chip companies in the German DAX share index. The Allianz share is popular with investors due to its stable business development and solid dividend policy. For the year 2022, the dividend per share is 11.40 euros (distribution in May 2023).
Quarterly figures (as of February 17, 2023)
The most important Quartalszahlen of Allianz as of February 17 are:
- Allianz Group total revenue increased 2.8% to 152.671 billion euros in 2022.
- Allianz Group operating profit increased by 5.7% to 14.164 billion euros in 2022.
- Allianz Group net income grew by 1.08 % to 7.182 billion euros in 2022.
- The dividend per share for fiscal 2022 was increased from 10.80 euros to 11.40 euros. A dividend increase of +5.6 %.
Allianz showed a robust performance across all businesses and regions despite the ongoing challenges from the Corona pandemic and litigation.
Allianz also confirmed its 2023 targets and provided a positive outlook for the future. In addition, Allianz is launching a share buyback program.
Share buyback program 2022/II
Allianz has been conducting regular share buybacks since 2017 to return excess capital to shareholders and increase return on equity. The current Aktienrückkaufprogramm 2022/II program is defined as follows:
- The current volume of the program is 1 billion euros.
- The buyback started on November 21, 2022 and is scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2023 at the latest.
- The first tranche of the program with a volume of 0.3 billion euros was completed on December 15, 2022.
- The second tranche of the program with a volume of up to €0.7 billion began on January 16, 2023 and runs to date.
Allianz has spent a total of around €9 billion on share buybacks since 2017, reducing around 8% of the share capital.
Allianz intends to continue to carry out further share buybacks in the future, if the financial situation and market conditions allow.
2. 20x analyst opinions on Allianz
The current analyst sentiment on FactSets as of 02/19/2023 is as follows. Out of a total of 20 analysts rate:
- 13 buy
- 1 overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight
- 0 sell
The analysts' sentiment is very positive. The price potential for the year is currently seen at 250 euros at +15.69%. This is a very good price potential for a defensive dividend share.
The Analysehaus Jefferies expects the share buyback program to be expanded by a further billion in its report of 22.02.23 and confirms a buy recommendation.
Analysten von Berenberg see a price potential of over 40% after the quarterly figures.
3 Allianz chart analysis and technical analysis
Allianz Chart Analysis Upward Trend 2008 to 2020
After the Börsencrash 2008 (real estate and banking crisis), Allianz was able to rise by 300 % within 12 years in a very stable upward trend. The rise was ended in 2020 with a strong 50% correction of the overall market after the start of the Corona pandemic.
Allianz chart analysis of the correction
Since February/March 2020, after the 50% COVID crash, the stock has been in a sideways movement, oscillating between 230 and 160 euros. With the current valuation of 215 euros, Allianz is close to the upper limit. In the short term, the share price is somewhat overbought in the weekly chart and is losing momentum with the ongoing short-term correction movement. The medium-term uptrend since September 2022 was left to the downside 2 weeks ago, but this does not lead to a strong downward movement. The company is excellently positioned and provides additional value stability with its share buyback program.
Allianz Chart Analysis Indicators
In the long-term chart, a weakening of the MACD indicator can be seen after the break of the medium-term uptrend (September 2022 to January 2023) close to the multi-year resistance line at around 230 euros. No MACD signal has been triggered so far, but I expect the signal to follow within the next 2 weeks. The RSI indicator has turned at the overbought area of 70 points and is currently negative. The short-term correction has been running for 2 weeks and is currently just under -5%.
Allianz chart analysis: Upward trend broken?
In the Daily Chart, with a candle duration of 1 day, the RSI and MACD indicator are negative, but slowly approaching the cooled area, from where positive signals are expected in the course of the next 1-2 weeks.
A short-term correction has already been underway for 2 weeks. The good quarterly figures have a supporting effect, so that no large downward movement has been observed so far.
4 Allianz stock analysis result
Environment and news
The Allianz share convinces with good quarterly figures Q4 2022, revenue growth, dividend increase of 5.6% and a share buyback program worth billions.
Sentiment of the analysts
The analysts' sentiment is clearly positive. The price target of +15.69% at 250 euros is impressive for a stable value and defensive dividend stock. Analysts at the private bank Berenberg raised the forecast to over 40% a few days ago. As of today, there is not a single sell recommendation from the analyst houses.
Allianz Chart Analysis
In the long-term weekly chart, the MACD and the RSI indicators are overbought. The share has been in a short-term correction movement within the sideways movement between 230 and 160 euros for 2 weeks. In the process, the price turned 2 weeks ago close to the upper limit downward and broke the medium-term upward movement (September 2022 to January 2023) downward. However, this does not lead to any major downside, because positive quarterly figures, as well as the share buyback program support. A continuation of the correction to the area of approx. 207 euros is realistic.
In the short-term daily chart, we see a cooling of the overbought RSI and MACD indicators. The short-term correction has already been running for about 2 weeks. Within the next 1 - 2 weeks, the indicators could turn again.
Outlook
As mentioned at the beginning, Allianz is part of the defensive portfolio core according to my investment strategy (consisting of ETFs and stable dividend stocks), which I cover and hold via savings plans according to the passive buy-and-hold strategy, regardless of the current price. The long-term chart picture is still positive, the short-term chart picture is negative. The share is in a short-term correction at the upper limit of the multi-year sideways movement since February 2022 at around 230 euros. However, the fundamental data continue to be convincing. Allianz shines with good quarterly figures and buys back its own shares with a share buyback program worth billions.
PS: The voting for the stock analysis of the week KW09 starts vsl. tomorrow. ❤️
Note: no investment advice and no purchase recommendation.
