Update:
As many of you have noticed, my assessment has come true:
The Total Crypto Market Cap has declined relatively sharply. I'm not mentioning this to portray myself as the hotshot supremo and to get excited that I was right and now wish for recognition in the comments, as I'm relatively introverted and can give myself self-worth and have also often been naive in the past and made the same mistakes over and over again. Back then, I would have liked someone who really knew what they were talking about. That's why I want to emphasize here how important it is for beginners to listen to people who know what they're doing and not blindly believe the crypto YouTuber/Tiktoker you trust, who usually make other content and then pick up the topic again when crypto brings in more clicks. Don't make your own decisions, just follow what has already been done. Some people who have realized profits almost exactly at the top and have shared this publicly here are therefore, in my opinion, very good indicators for all those who are just starting out: @frugalfreisein
@christian and of course @DonkeyInvestor he would have taken better care of his coins.
Current market assessment:
I don't think the party is over. The decline was a healthy move to take the leverage out of the market. However, it is often the case that a strong wave is often followed by another strong wave. This can be easily analyzed with tools like my recently introduced TradingView indicator.
Positive signals:
- Net short positions: The market is currently 52% short in the last 24h, which is often a sign of upside potential.
- $BTC (+1.95%) On-chain data: Stock market outflows accompanied the correction - an indicator that there is room to the upside again.
- Balance on exchanges: This continues to fall, which can be interpreted as bullish.
Negative signals:
- Fear & Greed Index: sentiment remains comparatively high, leaving room for another wave of selling.
Conclusion:
The current risk/reward ratio is significantly better than at the time of my last post. Nevertheless, caution is advised: The situation can change quickly. I continue to assume that seasonal excess liquidity could flow into Shitcoins - albeit to a lesser extent than in the past, as direct consumer stimulus is currently weaker due to the Fed, etc. However, should an income tax cut or similar come along, for example, this could mean immediate liquidity injections for retail investors.
An important point to reiterate: 99% of all altcoins are garbage: $ETH (+1.82%)
$SOL (+2.59%)
$XRP (+1.62%)
Most altcoins are "products" where we as investors are the actual product. These coins can be infinitely inflated, comparable to the "BRRR" of central banks. The only real benefit of many altcoins is the expectation of profit - fundamentally, they are often not needed even if they have a real apparent benefit. Ultimately, all that remains is speculation, and you should be aware of that. It's like a casino, only with better probabilities if you can act without emotion.
In conclusion: Of course I also lost money in the drop, but I didn't burn my fingers and I'm staying in the game. Did you expect the drop 100% of the time? No, of course not.
In any case, my social streak hopes that my post has put you off buying the top.
