Josef (@kleberj) on getquin

9Mon·

Bond Invest Update 2

As already announced, anyone who is interested can follow my investment in bonds.

Due to the surprisingly clear announcement of the interest rate cut next year by the FED, I was forced to implement my strategy a little faster before the wild ride takes off without me! 😊

New order settlement new luck! (2/3) 😊

Link to the dashboard: https://app.getquin.com/dashboard/eNaHkgNkAu

14.12

ITALY, REPUBLIC OF (GOVERNMENT) 4.5% 23/53

Bought x€6,000.00 at 101.56%

€6,093.60

16 Comments

Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

9Mon

Cool, a completely different strategy here than the usual dividend-growth bitcoin stuff 🤪 To be honest, I don't know much about government bonds, but it sounds interesting. Happy to share a few more thoughts from you. 👍

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Rmann@Epi

9Mon

I also think it's a nice change to see a pure bond portfolio. I have a few questions: 1. are the bonds your entire investments or just part of them? If complete, the question of asset class diversification and cluster risk immediately arises. 2. what is your strategy? How do you select the countries, the maturities, the weightings? When do you get in, when do you get out? 3. why don't you use a bond ETF? This gives you a higher diversification and you can take the interest rate reduction cycle directly with you.

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BaxMor@BaxMor

9Mon

I am invested in 20+ year US and 25+ year Eurozone government bonds via ETFs. I started building up positions in October. I expect a lot from this in 2024.

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BaxMor@BaxMor

9Mon

I have the $IBTL and $DBXG

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TreasureHunter@TreasureHunter

9Mon

Interesting. What does @Epi think about this?

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

9Mon

Your strategy is really interesting! 👍 I have two questions: 1. why has the $DBXG with euro bonds risen more than the $DTLA with US bonds, although the ECB has made no statement about interest rate cuts, but the FED has held out the prospect of three? As I understand it, it should be the other way around. 2. do you not expect a possible countermovement/correction after the significant rise since October? In the case of equities, this would presumably be taken into account. Or are your purchases only 1st tranches?

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RT270@RT270

9Mon

I would like to discuss the hope of price gains. The link shows the current yield curve in the eurozone: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_area_yield_curves/html/index.en.html 20-year AAA-rated government bonds yield approx. 2.5% (all bonds 3.3%). I interpret this as follows: 1. sooner or later the yield curve must invert again, i.e. long-dated bonds will yield more than short-dated bonds. The market has priced this in. 2. Currently, the deposit rate for 20y Euro AAA bonds would have to fall below 2.5% for the current yield curve to allow further large price gains, and only if we assume that interest rates will continue to fall. Hence my question for discussion: What are the arguments for the hoped-for rally?

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