1Mon
Excellent contribution! (as always)
last year I took a look at ASML and their presentation predicted a saturation (cyclical development) in the market, I believe that many investors completely ignore this.
A margin of safety is also important with such a moat, we have now seen again with Crowdstrike how quickly something like this can happen, be it a mistake on the part of the company, an economic cycle or new competition (in this case from China?)
last year I took a look at ASML and their presentation predicted a saturation (cyclical development) in the market, I believe that many investors completely ignore this.
A margin of safety is also important with such a moat, we have now seen again with Crowdstrike how quickly something like this can happen, be it a mistake on the part of the company, an economic cycle or new competition (in this case from China?)
•
1414
•
@Gerit I work in the semiconductor industry and believe that ASML is currently in an excellent position and is unrivaled for small structure widths.
However, this does not mean that there will not be new competitors in the coming years or that a completely new structuring process will not be developed. There is also the well-known hog cycle of the semiconductor industry. ASML is not unrivaled when it comes to larger structure widths anyway, for example $7751 and $7731.
In any case, it is a very exciting company, but at the same time a lot is already priced into the ASML story.
However, this does not mean that there will not be new competitors in the coming years or that a completely new structuring process will not be developed. There is also the well-known hog cycle of the semiconductor industry. ASML is not unrivaled when it comes to larger structure widths anyway, for example $7751 and $7731.
In any case, it is a very exciting company, but at the same time a lot is already priced into the ASML story.
•
22
•
@RealMichaelScott $7751 and $7731 are simply not competitors in EUV technology.
This gives $ASML a unique selling point,
I don't think Trumpf will ever supply this laser to anyone else😅
This gives $ASML a unique selling point,
I don't think Trumpf will ever supply this laser to anyone else😅
•
11
•1Mon
@RealMichaelScott Thank you for your assessment and attitude, that's really rare.
Have you ever written a post explaining why you are so good with the respective key figures and calculations? 😌
Have you ever written a post explaining why you are so good with the respective key figures and calculations? 😌
•
11
•@Der_Dividenden_Monteur I am not saying that the two are competitors in the EUV area, but only that they have two competitors in the larger structure widths.
ASML is of course the monopolist in the EUV sector.
ASML is of course the monopolist in the EUV sector.
•
11
•@Gerit I'm a mathematician and therefore already have a certain soft spot for numbers by nature 😅🙈
The rest can be read quickly or learned by doing.
The rest can be read quickly or learned by doing.
•
11
•
The contribution is an 11/10, as is the company. Thumbs up for that. You are very conservative when it comes to sales growth in the future. Don't you think that the automotive and datacenter sectors should be more dynamic? For all my love of conservatism. 🤔
•
11
•@Investor_in_Jogginghose Thank you for the praise. In the end, I think it's better to be too conservative than too optimistic. Especially when it comes to growth estimates. I prefer to be cautious, especially when buying for the first time.
Despite all the conservatism, you shouldn't forget that with "only" 14% per year in 2034, you end up with sales of just under 120 billion euros, while ASML currently has sales of around 25 billion euros. So that is still just under a fivefold increase on my "conservative" assumption.
Despite all the conservatism, you shouldn't forget that with "only" 14% per year in 2034, you end up with sales of just under 120 billion euros, while ASML currently has sales of around 25 billion euros. So that is still just under a fivefold increase on my "conservative" assumption.
••