From e-fan to e-hater: Why I criticize Germany's hype about e-mobility #tesla
#emobilität
#etfs
#pepsi
Hello everyone,
today we will talk about e-mobility according to my vote. A topic that interests many, especially against the background of buying an e-car, but also regularly divides minds away from desired and undesired opinions.
Before we start here as always my Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. It is also not a solicitation to buy and/or sell financial products. I only describe my opinion here. You have your own responsibility towards your investments. Therefore no liability.
Since it is already clear to me that the topic might require a second part, I will first refer to general advantages and disadvantages of e-mobility, make profitability calculations for e-cars on a private car basis and finally make a first rough conclusion, how and why I have which opinion about plug-in cars.
I'll leave my personal beliefs out of this part a bit and only include them more towards the end. It is rather to be understood as opinion instead of opinion making.
So that we all start from the same page, I'll divide my analysis as follows:
PART 1 - E-cars an Exciting Topic
1. e-mobility from the point of view of an ex-fan - definitions, experiences and examples.
PART 2 - My opinion on E-cars: Unprofitable, inferior and still the winner - why E-cars would remain irrelevant without the hype tomorrow.
3. transport policy out of the ivory tower: why other countries use a mobility mix with among others biodiesel, fuel cells and hydrogen
1. e-mobility under power - Does it live up to the German government's hype?
I still remember very well my first encounter with the topic of e-mobility. It was about 22 years ago....
But according to your profile you are only 30 now? How does that work?
Basically it's quite simple: Because of my hobby of RC cars. I've always enjoyed racing small remote controlled cars, winning small prizes and outshining the RC cars of other drivers in terms of looks and racing techniques. My fascination for it I noticed after one gave me a first relatively slow RC car for children. It only drove a maximum of 20 kilometers per hour, but it was just suitable for my age group to develop a first understanding of a non-gasoline powered remote controlled car (cf. (1), (2)).
Only with higher age, here thus with approx. 13/14 I deepened this hobby. I often took part in smaller competitions among friends, dealt with the basics of driving physics and yes - had to deal with electrical engineering. As some of you will know, there are different types of cars in RC racing, which I perceive to minimize in variation as I get older: At some point there are mainly "racing cars" instead of monster trucks and co. (cf. (2)).
What does this have to do with e-mobility?
Very much. According to (3), almost all non-professional RC cars are electric cars based on batteries or accumulators. Combustion cars are considered to be very powerful, but also professional and noisy and therefore not recommended for children (see (3)). In general, electric RC cars are considered to be "clean to drive" or easy to handle - but on average they achieve significantly shorter driving times than verbena cars (see (4)).
One can drive approximately 20 minutes with a battery of 4,000 milliamps. For some, that is enough. What happens afterwards?
Correct: Recharge. For a whole hour. Only then can it be ensured that the car is fully charged and has not achieved battery damage due to incorrect charging (cf. ibid.).
And the verbs?
The great strength of the internal combustion engine is that it can be refueled in a matter of seconds or minutes and then be on the road again. With a neatly realistic engine noise that also assumes a protective function (see (4)).
It can often be observed that the step to more regular driving is more likely to be taken with the combustion engine. One of the leading reasons is the power and distance advantage as well as the reversal of the "advantage" of e-motors (see (4), (5)).
The what?
Reversing the advantage of e-motors is quite simple: Easy handling is a nice term for a completely different concept: Lack of customizing
If I can only change wheels, suspension, certain bodywork, etc., then I am limited in terms of the core of my car: The Engine tuning.
Sources (6) and (7) show exemplary fuels for combustion engines and...
Do you notice anything?
For about 6 paragraphs now, I've been deleting the "RC" and talking about drive types in general.
Why? Because the advantages and disadvantages of e-mobility can be modeled almost perfectly on the smaller brothers and sisters in spirit of the Honda-E, Tesla Model 3 etc. Have you noticed? The pros and cons are close.
Source (7) is more inclined towards e-mobility and is one of the articles that is quite positive about tuning e-drives. However, even this author cannot avoid naming the lack of a sense of achievement after tuning. The e-motor just sounds the same - nothing has changed in the engine noise and the e-car takes over the shifting anyway. Then spend several thousand euros for it (see (7))?
The example of tuning shows that e-mobility disenfranchises the driver and deprives him of a full driving experience.
But how exactly does the e-car work?
Essentially, there are various battery types within the e-business - some still experimental, some already conventional. What they all have in common is that their heart is not an engine powered by fossil energy, but instead a high-voltage battery forms the counterpart to gasoline, diesel and co. as energy storage. Current models have the following capacities (see (8). (9)):
- AUDI E-Tron 71 / 95 kWh with stated 338-437 Km
- Hyundai Kona 39.2 / 64 kWh with stated 305-484 Km
- Tesla Model 3 55 / 75 kWh with stated 430-567 Km
Yes but their motors seem to have an acceptable range for a second car?
I used a very simple trick for the three models, which some salespeople also like to use: Average times, ethical pseudo-argumentation and concealing price and environmental factors.
Being nice, I have chosen 3 very noble and highly respected brands to show you the problem of e-mobility in a more striking way. The following statements are made only on the example of the AUDI, but are also applicable in parts to other E-cars.
Let's start with the AUDI e-tron 50 quattro. According to (10), it is currently the cheapest E-tron from AUDI. It costs 69,100€, has a curb weight between 2,445 kg - 2,695 kg and comes with an enormous engine power of 313 hp (230 kW) with a torque of 540 Newton meters (see (10), (11)).
Wow, that seems like a lot - why does that leave you cold?
Imagine paying almost 70,000€ to be able to drive a maximum of 200 kilometers per hour with a powertrain that is in the best case 437 kilometers of range. With the experience that the sportiness will find its abrupt end early and a vacation from a certain distance > 300 km tends to foresee an e-charging station search (cf. ibid.).
How can I approximate how long the e-car will run?
AUDI, for example, uses the WLTP procedure. WLTP stands for "Worldwide Harmonised Light-Duty Vehicles Test Procedure". A somewhat unwieldy title for a globally uniform range test for lightweight commercial vehicles (cf. (12), (13)).
It is performed on a test rig for 30 minutes and simulates a distance of 23 kilometers with four different speed ranges:
- Up to 60 kilometers per hour
- Up to 80 kilometers per hour
- Up to 100 kilometers per hour
- More than 130 kilometers per hour
During these intervals, an attempt is made to simulate realistic driving: This means that the driver accelerates and brakes within these intervals, thus stressing the acceleration, consumption and abrasion of the car. On average, the car drives 47 km/h for this test and also has to cope with a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.
Why is this important?
One of the factors dominated by e-cars in particular is the battery management system. In addition to checking the "fill level" of the battery, it also performs safety functions in the form of temperature control of the battery cells. This should be between 20 and 40 degrees Celsius. In this interval, the electrochemical processes can function best (cf. (14)). The above-mentioned test of 23 degrees is thus perfectly within the "feel-good" interval of the e-motor (cf. (12), (13)).
But is this also realistic for consumption?
If we look at the German weather data for 2022, we quickly notice that only in August was the temperature above 20 degrees Celsius on average. Specifically, it was 20.3 degrees Celsius in August. Consequently, all other months reached temperatures, some of which were just over 10% of the lower range limit of the comfort interval. As an example, we refer to December 2021 to May 2022, where temperatures averaged in a channel between 2.6 degrees Celsius to 14.4 degrees Celsius in May (cf. (15)).
So what?
The weather data already shows that for 11 out of 12 months and thus in 91.67% of the annual months, the test procedure has set a base temperature value that is too high. From this, we can conclude that the e-car has to expend significantly more energy during a cold start in order to maintain an on-board temperature, among other things (cf. ibid.).
Every car driver, whether E or gasoline/diesel, will know that a cold start usually results in a multiple of fuel consumption. It is not uncommon to reach a multiple of the consumption in the display. According to (16), this value is often 1.5 to 2 times higher and can be even higher in winter (see (16)).
This is not a new problem with electric cars and is described in numerous forums. Especially for this test, there is a test called GREEN NCAP, which is also conducted on a test bench like the WLTP and simulates 14 degrees Celsius and -7 degrees Celsius (see (17)).
The Hyundai Kona Electric mentioned above achieves an additional consumption of 46% at -7 degrees Celsius - IF the consumption level of 14 degrees Celsius is taken as a basis. However, as we have just noticed. The comfortable temperature of the battery is 20 to 40 degrees Celsius - but the WLTP test of (18) has been performed at 23 degrees as described. Thus, the gap from these optimal values to the 14 degrees Celsius and then to the -7 degrees Celsius only increases and shows the distortion of the range problem (cf. ibid., (18)).
Thus, the above-mentioned optimum ranges will most likely never be reached in practical use.
How can we calculate how the values of (17) and (18) will relate to each other?
We already know from the source that the range of the Hyundai Kona shrinks from 305-484 kilometers to 215 kilometers IF we are even 6 degrees Celsius below the minimum limit of 20 degrees Celsius. So at 14 degrees Celsius, the car already loses more than a third of its range: we are only at 65.57% performance of the battery (see (17), (18)).
What happens when we cool down to - 7 degrees Celsius?
It really won't be pretty now. Cooling down to this winter temperature is accompanied by 147 kilometers of range. So, according to the source, we lose 32% performance compared to the 14 degrees Celsius and are now additionally kicked in the butt, since we only compared chain values.
Chains...what?
We just talked about more than a third, then another 32 percent...but what does that really mean for the stated range values and me as a driver?
Let's compare the stated 305 to 484 kilometers of the Hyundai Kona with the calculated values. Let's add a time line to generate the average ranges per month according to (15), (17) and (18). For this, we assume that the winter months of November, December, January and February are closer to -7° in terms of consumption than to the fall temperatures.
For an average driver of an e-car with equally average temperatures, the following range table now results (cf. ibid.):
- January: T(January) e T(Winter) i.e. 147 km - 215 km.
February: T(February) e T(Winter) so 147 Km - 215 Km
March: T(March) e T(Fall) so 215 Km max.
April: T(April) e T(Autumn) so 215 Km max.
May: T(April) e T(summer) so 215 Km - 484 Km.
June: T(April) e T(summer) so 215 Km - 484 Km.
July: T(April) e T(summer) so 215 Km - 484 Km
August: T(April) e T(summer) so 215 Km - 484 Km
September: T(September) e T(Fall) so 215 Km max.
October: T(October) e T(Autumn) so 215 Km max.
November: T(November) e T(Winter) so 147 Km - 215 Km.
December: T(December) e T(Winter) so 147 Km - 215 Km.
I was extra nice and defined the interval for the summer months according to the manufacturer's specifications.
What does that tell us?
We are buying a car that is highly sensitive to temperature in a country whose climatic conditions are mostly unfavorable to the type of drive. In addition, the average price of electric cars is significantly higher than that of combustion engines. A simple example illustrates this even at the same manufacturer level.
While the Hyundai Kona described above costs €36,400 in the cheapest configuration and with a weaker engine performance profile and battery, the Hyundai Kona Diesel costs €26,300 at a similar configuration level (see (19), (20)).
Why is this explosive?
The Kona diesel consumes 4.9L per 100 km with a 50 liter tank. That is:
50L / 4.9L = 10.20-factor.
The Kona electric is at:
14.7 kWh / 100 Km so 39 kWh / 14.7 kWh = 2.65-factor.
So we see that the input-output ratio of the e-car cannot keep up with an ordinary diesel (cf. (21), (22)).
What should this input-output ratio tell us?
By means of input-output calculation we all judge our decisions every day. Do I buy the sushi for 30€ or do I rather make it myself? Do I fire up the grill or go to the Greek restaurant?
Both considerations are based on the focus on the fulfillment of needs. The input-output ratio shown already indicates that the line efficiency of the diesel is 3.85 times (=10.2/2.65) greater than that of the e-car.
What is the point of your relatively complex calculation?
Plenty. The automotive industry is already noticing that the trend toward electric driving may be "going under". Inflation, the elimination of an e-car premium, and delivery times that eliminate the joy of a new electric car are doing the rest.
An example of this is Ms. Jaskula, the Chief Human Resources Officer of ZF Friedrichshafen, the world's third-largest automotive supplier, who already expects 11 million e-cars (see (22), (23)).
Sounds great, doesn't it?
No. That's falling short of the target of around 39%. The German government had planned for 15 million e-cars by 2030. In the worst case, this target will not be reached either. That would be a drop of approx. 27% compared to the target. Not a good outlook for e-mobility in Germany (cf. ibid.).
But where does this come from?
Each of us can notice it every day - as soon as the letter from the electricity supplier arrives, a queasy feeling arises: The budget billing is to be increased. While in 2012 the average electricity bill of a 3-person household in Germany was still about 75€, this has now reached about 117€ in 2022. This represents an increase of 56% and leaves little scope for compensation elsewhere on the consumer side, especially in the inflation-stricken middle classes (see (24), (25)).
If we also look at the average kWh prices for commercial and industrial customers, the supply side has also had to increase substantially. Industrial customers in particular were still paying 15.78 cents/kWh in 2012. Today, that adds up to 22.51 cents/kWh. This also corresponds to an increase of 42.65% (see (24), (25)).
The average distance a commuter in Germany has to travel is 16.91 kilometers each way, so a total of 16.91 kilometers * 2 (outward + return) = 33.82 kilometers in total. In Germany 2023 we will have 250 working days, where I assume 30 vacation days EXPLICITLY NOT using the e-car. I do this to keep the comparison reasonably fair (cf. (26), (27), (28)).
So let's do the math: How much does the diesel cost me compared to the e-car?
We calculate the annual mileage: 33.82*220 =7,440.4 kilometers in 2023.
For this I refuel the diesel: approx. 8 times, because 7,440.4 / (10.2*100) = 7.29 (Rounded: 8 times)
What does this currently cost me? We approximate the diesel price for this using the average value method from 2022, which is EXTREMELY fair on my part, because 2022 was a year of very high diesel prices in my opinion. Source (28) testifies this especially graphically (cf. (28)).
The relevant diesel price to this is 1.811€ per diesel liter. So we get fuel costs of: 8*50*1,811€/L = 724,40€ for mobility the whole year. The following statements refer to (29), (30), (31), among others:
What is the cost to me of refueling more often and the "good" feeling of the e-car?
For this, we calculate simplified with the 200 kilometers from the above analysis. This is also very nice in light of my weather impact comment. We get:
7,440.4 km / 200 = 37.202 (rounded 38) charging events.
What could this cost me?
We calculate: 38 charging processes * 39 kWh capacity * 48 cents/kWh at the charging station and arrive at: 711,36€ for the Stromer. If we offset with the diesel we come to:
724,40€ - 711,36€ = 13,04€
In this scenario, we "save" 13.04€ if we use the Stromer.
Is this a good or bad value?
For a long time, calculations like these were the reason why I was one of the first people in my circle of acquaintances to come out in favor of e-mobility. Yes, that's right: Like many others, I found it fascinating that you can now drive "big RC cars." Analog their advantages as well as disadvantages. Unfortunately, I quickly realized that these calculations only work out if one ignores the essential shortcomings of e-mobility.
I am referring primarily to employees below the middle class for whom these cars would never be affordable and are also only conceivable as company cars in cases of short distance, charging station supply and not frequent use as a second car.
Let's also calculate the acquisition costs:
36,400€ (e-car) - 26,300€ (diesel) = 10,100€.
Yes but premium? So environment and so?
Medium term: Nix to less premium. For 2023, the premium is supposed to be 4,500€ - after having been 6,000€ so far. This goes hand in hand with my comments on inflation, the interview with Ms. Jaskula from ZF Friedrichshafen and the ever decreasing "tank difference" in favor of e-mobility. According to (31), the e-premium is to be further reduced from 2024.
What does this mean?
Let's calculate that too: 10.100€ - 4.500€ premium = 5.600€ the Diesel is possibly cheaper
When would we have that with STABLE ELECTRIC and DIESEL PRICE with the E-car out?
If we save 13,04€ per tank year, one notices the problem nevertheless very fast: Late.
5,600€ / 13.04€ annual fuel savings = 429.47 years.
No I am not joking. So we can rather not make up the difference without promotion via tank savings. The shift to e-mobility seems to be faltering due to the breakaway of the artificial push of e-cars by the federal government.
What about insurance, repairs, inspections, etc.?
A very old argument of mine for e-mobility picks up on exactly that. While the e-car doesn't need oil changes or emissions inspections, wear parts are less likely to be affected by recuperation. As a result, e-cars have to go to the workshop for maintenance less often on average (see (32), (33)).
BUT: There is a trap in this block around service, maintenance and repair. It is: accident. Allianz has commissioned a wide-ranging study on this and found out that a 10% surcharge after accidents is the rule for e-cars. It is therefore more expensive to repair an e-car after an accident than a combustion engine (cf. ibid.).
Another very strong argument against current e-mobility results from these contexts: The residual value problem in case of acceptance uncertainty. Pepsi, for example, has already received its first e-trucks as tractors from Tesla - how much potential is still there in the market? Who will still buy these e-trucks or our 200-300 km cars, should the potential be sufficient?
What chance does e-mobility have in the commercial sector? Which for us private individuals? Can it be the solution that we all use a type of drive that is less efficient, less developed, more expensive to buy and no longer subsidized?
But before this goes completely beyond the scope of this article, let's save it for a possible part 2. There, in the part "Transport policy from the ivory tower: Why other countries use a mobility mix", I will not only shed light on the private sector, but also present the future of e-mobility at Pepsi.
What's your take on this? Are you Team E, Team Biodiesel/Hydrogen, or Team Internal Combustion?
I look forward to constructive comments 😊
To help you be prepared, feel free to watch my new Pepsi video 😊
SOURCES
(1) https://sportfanat.de/rc-car-racing-kindheitstraeume-werden-wahr/
(2) https://www.alza.de/spielzeug/so-wahlen-sie-ein-rc-auto-aus
(3) https://www.elternkompass.de/ratgeber/spielzeug/rc-spielzeug/ferngesteuertes-auto/
(6) https://www.conrad.de/de/ratgeber/modellbau-modellbahn/treibstoff-fuer-modellmotoren.html
(8) https://emobil.swhl.de/aufbau-und-funktionsweise
(9) https://www.adac.de/rund-ums-fahrzeug/elektromobilitaet/kaufen/elektroauto-batterie-groesse/
(10) https://www.autoscout24.de/auto/audi/audi-e-tron/
(11) https://praxistipps.chip.de/elektroauto-pro-und-contra-argumente-zur-elektromobilitaet_113374
(17) https://www.adac.de/rund-ums-fahrzeug/elektromobilitaet/info/elektroauto-reichweite-winter/
(18) https://www.audi.de/de/brand/de/neuwagen/layer/wltp-lp/layer/nefz-wltp.html
(31) https://www.adac.de/rund-ums-fahrzeug/elektromobilitaet/kaufen/foerderung-elektroautos/
(32) https://www.autobild.de/artikel/elektroauto-vs.-verbrenner-kostenvergleich-15131047.html#-1480369008
(33) https://www.autobild.de/artikel/tesla-semi-lkw-zugmaschine-elektro-22317277.html
