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Great post - but as you write, there are some factors that are based on today's assumptions.
Will taxation remain the same in 20 years?
How free am I in my choice of provider/product and how profitable is this investment?
Will I stay with the same employer for the next 20 years?

My employer offers a pension fund, for example, which has yielded an average return of 3.x% in recent years. That's it for freedom.
An ETF basic pension with a tax refund is probably a more profitable investment, but of course it also involves more risk...
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@ETFKing Thank you!
Regarding taxation: of course nobody knows what our politicians will come up with in 20 years' time However, there is greater legal certainty in the pension insurance sector. In other words, the tax laws that applied when the contract was concluded should apply. Before the politicians tackle the occupational pension scheme, it's time for ETF savings plans.

Freedom of choice: It depends on the insurance company. Mylife is quite free in its choice of products. After more than a year, I've now paid in around €5,000 and the securities account stands at around €6400. Do you call that profitable?

Regarding the employer: there are two possibilities: you have a reasonable employer or you become an employee yourself. The 3% policy you mentioned with probably around 3%pa administration costs is real rubbish from the early 2000s. I had something like that and canceled it. Maybe your employer will let you talk to him if you show him my invoice? 🤷
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