The Sommer is making its last attempt of the year before the new one takes over in three weeks. Herbst replaces this one. Time for my thoughts and completed month. In my Depot it went already changeably. It all started with a sideways trend followed by a cup formation.
Only in the last few days, the expected breakout succeeded. Is now the summer lull over? Is the hot autumn coming?
At least at the top of my portfolio, an exciting rally is underway. $WMT has now created a gap between itself and 2nd and 3rd place as the number 1 stock.
That surprises me, I wouldn't have imagined that a retailer that was at the bottom of the chain just a year ago is now leading the portfolio. Right behind them, $FDX and $AVGO are engaged in an exciting race for silver and bronze.
But as we know, where two quarrel the third rejoices, because $AAPL is catching up and is already sticking to $AVGO. Will perhaps the announcement of the iPhone15 in September lead to $AAPL and $AVGO passing?
Let's look at the end of the chain, $VNA, $NEL and $DHL (ex $DPW.DE) remain at the back end without much change or movement. $CPB, $GIS and $O also fall back. With the upcoming bonus payment, $CBP and $GSK will be re-bought. I am a firm believer in both Companies and their existence in the future.
After all, canned soups always go in this age of convenience and the last Voltaren of the GSK convinced me myself of the quality of the products. Whether I will buy $DHL, I have not yet decided, because $JPM is also the first tranche.
In general, I observe the that positions that become seriously strong in the depot now weaken and old laggards catch up. For example, $NFLX is on the way up, while $NKE is also falling back. So much for the stocks.
The ETFs are doing what they want growing steadily, I have nothing more to say about that. At the turn of the month, I was spoiled here with three distributions.
On the subject of P2P-credits, I may adjust my attitude. As before, I stick to it and get out of P2P loans. Thus, I have again withdrawn small sums this month. Now there are almost only positions left over that are really in collection.
Only Bondora's Gow&Grow is still running smoothly. And this is where my mood change is anchored. I'm considering at least maintaining this and investing a bit in the P2P sector again for the first time with the upcoming bonus. After all, it wouldn't be all that wise to shut down a working cash machine. However, I haven't quite decided yet. My confidence in the sector is very shaken. Of course, I was aware of defaults on individual P2P positions, but the fact that defaults/recoveries/delays crack the 50% and stand even higher, that does not leave me cold.
In terms of crypto, I have continued to think about the aftermath after the halving next April. So starting 120 days after the $BTC halving event next year, I plan via DCA exiting assets that will already be tax-free and thus taking profits.
The profits will then go into the ETF long term investment and crypto holdings will be rebuilt via savings plans. I will not stop the savings plans in $BTC and $ETH. So much for the look ahead. Looking back, I am of course happy about the last BTC price drop to around 26K.
Whether the crypto cycle repeats as it has in recent years, no one knows, but I trust it and think it is the only way to play the crypto game. Accumulate in the bear market, realize in the bull market.
With the gradual sell off via DCA the coming year I try to take good profits, because the absolute ATH I certainly do not hit, for this asset class is much too volatile.
I plan the first sell threshold in BTC around the old ATH and then every 10-15K in 4 stages. After BTC is largely bought off, it continues with ETH and finally the Altcoins. The levels I set emotionless by Exel and approach here with appropriate take profits.
I am curious whether the plan will work out and now enjoy the end of summer. After all, there are other important things in life than love money. Hiking, doing sports, keeping fit, increasing human capital and also stepping on the gas at work.
Have a great September :)