A magical moment in my portfolio. Finally cracked the 100k mark. ✨🎉 Of course I'm aware that this is just a snapshot. But it still feels good. 🚀

My investment history

A few days ago, when I shared my 13-year performance of over 20,000% (the MSCI World returned less than 400% over the same period), I expressed an interest in hearing my investment story. @Alpalaka was interested in hearing my investment story.

Are you up for it?

If enough people are interested, I'll write up the story and share it here. But it's a bit longer, so I wouldn't bother if only a few people are interested anyway.

It's about my journey from a building society saver to a crypto donkey to a global portfolio. From a working-class child with a gross annual salary of 26,000 euros to an academic with a gross annual salary of 150,000 euros. A lot of bad luck and even more good luck with crypto. About building up a mid-six-figure fortune without an inheritance or significant start-up aid. And what the Pirate Party has to do with it.

Let me know if you would read the story (even if it's long) or just keep scrolling 😘

People you should definitely follow

I've been on getquin for over 3 years now and have seen a few users come and go. Sometimes I mourn the good old days when it was really wild and less Finfluencerig here. But the world keeps on turning.

That's why I'm not going to leave old companions like @InvestmentPapa
@TheAccountant89 or @Europoor who have made great contributions but haven't really been active for a long time. I'm talking about a few hand-picked users who are constantly making a great contribution to the community, even today.

And here they are, my top 9 that you absolutely have to follow

@Simpson - By far the coolest user on getquin for me. He is somehow different, super funny and incredibly likeable. He's the only member of the $UKW (-0.61%) sect that I have never given a 🆘. You don't give a Homer Simpson a 🆘

@GoDividend - just knows everything about cashback, dividends and how to earn money on the side

@stefan_21 - the all-knowing and always helpful Bitcoin genius

@TradingMelone - no longer so active lately, but the place to go when it comes to trading, crypto niches and tax optimization with listed properties (and thus has a unique USP)

@Epi - simply a smart guy, very well-founded, broad knowledge, clear and rational

@RealMichaelScott - very deep knowledge, always with interesting approaches and sometimes thinks outside the box. What he says has substance

@Koenigmidas - simply invests in everything that's not up to scratch. Whether it's apartments, crypto, timeless or music. Accordingly, he can share many experiences. He has also launched a community podcast.

@Barsten - gives insights into his wacky CV, which can easily be described as "from rags to riches"

@Dr27589 - Unfortunately, you can't follow him, but he knows his way around the insurance industry and is happy to give (detailed) tips and advice on all kinds of insurance products

As is usual with such lists, I'm sure I've forgotten someone. So for anyone who feels forgotten, a big 🖕 (and an extra 🖕 to @DividendenWaschbaer ).

Which users do you think are essential to follow? What are the favorites of the getquin employees @Kundenservice
@Gqnina
@Leonard
@christian
@TheRealRapha ...?

Hello everyone,

now I can finally post one #meilenstein post 🥳

I've been investing since 2017 (but only in company shares). Then in 2021 I started properly and invested everything I had saved.

The $BRK.B (+0.26%) position will hopefully serve to pay off my loss pot at some point, which has grown to around € 1800 due to a lot of back and forth.

When I have paid this off, everything will go into the $VWCE (+0.15%).

$BTC (+0.92%) At the end of the year, when the 1-year holding period is over, it will also be transferred to the All World.

My current monthly savings rate is €1000, plus special savings rates from time to time.

My investment horizon is until retirement (another 19 years). But the aim is to reach the millions before then (hopefully in 2039).

$BTC (+0.92%)
Power Law: Can a mathematical model predict the future price? 📈🔮

Today we're talking about the so-called Bitcoin Power Lawor in German, the power law of Bitcoin. This model attempts to explain the long-term price development of Bitcoin using mathematical principles.

But is it even possible to predict something that is based on the supply and demand of people - like the price of a good?

What is the Bitcoin Power Law model?

The Bitcoin Power Law is a mathematical model that describes how the price of Bitcoin grows over time. It is based on the power law, a concept that is used in many areas of nature and science. Simply put, it shows how one quantity (e.g. the price) grows as a power of another quantity (e.g. time).

Power laws occur primarily in nature, such as in the growth of organisms, and in networks.

Giovanni Santostasi and the Bitcoin Power Law

The astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi was instrumental in developing and popularizing this model. He (and other physicists) have established that Bitcoin has approximately followed such a power law over the last 15 years - which is quite remarkable.

His scientific approach shifts the focus away from a financial instrument to a networkthat is similar to a living organism grows. This ties in directly with the idea of "Metcalfe's Law", which describes the value of a network in proportion to the number of participants squared. Bitcoin as a network therefore becomes exponentially more valuable with each new user - with decreasing growth.

But what exactly does this mean?

You can think of this model like a big ball of yarn. It all starts with the first user using Bitcoin and thereby giving it a certain value. The more users there are, the higher the value of Bitcoin rises. A higher price in turn attracts more miners, who invest more resources in mining. This increased activity leads to an increase in mining difficulty, which means that miners need more income per coin. At the same time, the growing hashrate (computing power of the network) increases the security of Bitcoin, which in turn attracts more users - and the cycle starts all over again.

Santostasi calls this feedback loop between price, miners and users the feedback logic. He describes it using a mathematical model based on exponential growth.

If you plot the Bitcoin chart not linearly as usual, but logarithmically (on the x & y axes), you can suddenly see that Bitcoin has been following a line with over- and under-performance so far.

-> This line (green) is the Bitcoin Power Law💪

(Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/)

Does this now mean that we can predict the Bitcoin price for all time in the future?

I'm not entirely convinced yet, but at least there are already websites like https://bitcoinfairprice.com/where you can select any date in the past or future and then get the "fair value" of Bitcoin for that date based on the power law model😅

So when will we reach the $1 million mark according to this model?

The answer according to the power law is: 2033

For the next 10 years, it would look like this:

2024: $68.434

2025: $99.794

2026: $142.232

2027: $198.653

2028: $272.486

2029: $367.749

2030: $489.108

2031: $641.941

2032: $832.407

2033: $1.067.513

2034: $1.355.187

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Power Law shows how Bitcoin grows exponentially through network effects and self-reinforcing processes. It is a useful tool to understand the long-term development of Bitcoin, but should not be taken as absolute truth.

I always find it very difficult to make predictions for the future based on the past. After all, there are countless external factors, such as regulations, global crises, etc., which all have an influence on the price.

Nevertheless, it is interesting that this model can at least be applied to Bitcoin's recent past.

I deliberately wanted to keep this article a little shorter. If you want to find out more about the Bitcoin Power Law, I can recommend Giovanni Santostasi's blog page:

https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9

What do you think, is there anything to the Bitcoin Power Law or is it only valid again anyway until the price does something completely different? :D

Have a nice afternoon/evening!

#bitcoin