14H·

Bitcoin price target 135,000$?

The good old Bitcoin is currently rising $BTC (+1,29%) is rising more strongly again. As I'm currently more involved again because of the leverage positions, I'll just share my thoughts on the short-term price target. You need some kind of target to be able to assess risks and opportunities.

I like to keep the guesswork simple. One of the easiest tools for forecasting ATH is the Fibonacci projections. Currently, there seems to be a clear lumping of the 100% targets around the $135,000 Fibonacci extensions. This will not pass market participants by.

The simple extension of the last run also extends to around $135,000. The run lasted 11 days. The current one has already lasted 3 days. So the target could be reached in the next 7-8 days - assuming the market participants are roughly the same as during the last run.

So that's my target price until July 18: $135,000. The derivatives will be sold again there at the latest.

What do you think of the price target?

Your Epi

Epi

@Epi

1Semana·

BTC buy signal

If there's one thing I've learned with Bitcoin, it's that you have to take advantage of opportunities.

BTC usually moves in extended consolidations and then rises or falls explosively to new levels.

At the moment, a number of indicators point to a blow-off phase for BTC. This is why I have swapped the BTC ETC in my individual 3xGTAA portfolio for a 2x leveraged factor certificate on BTC.

This is not possible in the Wikifolio because I only wanted to trade ETFs and ETCs there.

The Epi can also be offensive.

😬

03.07

MOR

MORG.STANLEY FAKTL BTC

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€ 11.839,96

21 Comentários

Stefan21@stefan_21

Respect Epi, you had a good nose for the breakout :)
The 135k sounds realistic to me in the short term.

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Epi@Epi

@stefan_21 Well, my nose is not really good. I'm a bit surprised myself.

BTC was a buy in my momentum models anyway. Liquidity and sentiment also fit. My backtests for GTAA have repeatedly shown that the performance values benefit tremendously from the leverage on BTC - provided you can ignore the drawdowns (what a miracle!).

So this has been my plan for a long time: buy BTC in positive momentum (sold it completely at the beginning of March), wait for the breakout, swap into 2x leverage, set SL/formulate price target, sell at the KZ, formulate correction target, re-enter at the correction target with a simple BTC ETC and do it all over again. 😬

Let's see, normally plans only work out so moderately for me. But even half of that would be enough for me. 😅

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Stefan21@stefan_21

@Epi sounds like a solid plan, but would be too stressful for me😄
I just run a savings plan week by week and buy when there are setbacks. But I'm long term anyway.
From a pure investment point of view, it makes sense to jump on the momentum and then try to get out in time :)

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Epi@Epi

@stefan_21 Oh, the stress is limited. I got into BTC at the beginning of June and shifted into 2xBTC last week. A total of 3 trades in 5 weeks.
I tend to get stressed when I realize I'm on the wrong side of the market. And with the plan I at least have my relationship with the market under control. That tends to relax me.

I've been thinking for a long time (since 2017) about holding BTC in my portfolio as a long-term investment, similar to gold. But I'm still not convinced - less technically than politically. And as long as I'm not, I'm only taking the momentum with me. This means I am independent of all political developments surrounding BTC. If it keeps going up, I'm in. If BTC dies, then without me. 🤷

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Stefan21@stefan_21

11min

@Epi Fair, that's an understandable attitude.
Politically unconvinced in what way? Concerns about bans? :)

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Mo@BigMo

With all the moon goals that are currently circulating, I think your goals are conservative and realistic.😁

I'll add to that:
If you draw a trend channel with the lows and highs from October 2023 to today, the upper end of the channel is currently at 143k.

This would also be my price target for the time being.

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Epi@Epi

@BigMo Yes, I've also seen the 143-145k. But I think the wall at 135k is too strong for that. I don't think we'll break through at the first attempt. First of all, there should be a hefty correction from 135k. And then up to the trend channel. 🤔

Oh, I don't know either...!

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Banana M.@Banana_Millionaire

Thank you for your assessment.
I really appreciate your opinion and think it is realistic.

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Epi@Epi

@Banana_Millionaire We'll see if I deserve your estimate shortly.... 😁

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

unimaginable, but anything is possible. I am in favor of 120 k then drop to 60 and breakout to 180,000 $ that would be my dream scenario.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

@Testo-Investor The drop to 60 will not happen without Black Swan.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

@stefan_21 We have Trump after all! This is our chance :-) but hopefully the correction will be massive again !

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Epi@Epi

@Testo-Investor Nothing is unimaginable with BTC! 😅

The move to 135k is, as shown, completely in line with the last one and would be nothing special.

My scenario is more like this: 135k - 65k - 200k - 5k. But basically I don't care, I have no conviction on BTC and just follow the momentum. 😁

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

@Epi my best ! For once we are of the same opinion ... awesome! That would be brilliant if it happened!

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Stefan21@stefan_21

@Epi @Testo-Investor Dream on you two🤪😂
I think BTC will now climb to 150-200k and then go into a small bear market with max ~50% drawdown. There are already too many institutions and too little retail in play for more than that.
But I wouldn't mind a temporary correction down to 60 or 50k. But I honestly can't quite imagine it anymore.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

@stefan_21 and that mindset is exactly this mistake just because you think it can't happen. That's exactly why it will happen. How many times have I been wrong and thought it will never happen again and then 50 60,70 80 % correction I got out of the habit of saying it will never happen again. But like you, I see the 200 K but we won't go straight up.

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Epi@Epi

@Testo-Investor Well, don't scare me - an opinion with the bestotesto!? 😯

I don't know if the path would be brilliant. The way down would be brutal and certainly noticeable in other asset classes too.

I've been through something like that before: the whole market crashed massively, everyone around me suffered, only I made profits with my shorts. Somehow it wasn't a good feeling. 😐 Well, maybe next time I'll manage to stay above it...

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Stefan21@stefan_21

@Testo-Investor well, Bitcoin is not an altcoin :D
The whole of Wall Street and the first countries are now involved. Fucking Blackrock describes Bitcoin as a unique diversifier and a "flight to quality".

With the whole tariff war, the Nasdaq has fallen lower than BTC. I was very surprised by that.
The BTC rise to this point has been very healthy in my opinion. We haven't shot up like a field hockey stick. Retail is still not in the market either.
I simply don't see the temporary bubble formation that has occurred in previous cycles.
However, if we were to run up to 200k-250k within a few weeks, I would sell a few percent of Bitcoin because I would then assume that another sharp correction is coming.
I'm not worried about that right now. Unless there is a Black Swan event that also pulls down the traditional markets.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

@stefan_21 you are not thinking deep enough... the really big players are not Blackrock who move the market but the fat whales since hour 1 .... Oh, if it seems to you that they have fat stocks, yes ... but the really big whales decide how things go .... But the retail is not there to push the market to 150-200 now !

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Stefan21@stefan_21

16min

@Testo-Investor well, look at the daily trading volume and the market capitalization of Bitcoin :D The times are over when a whale could quickly catapult the price down or up at will.

As long as Bitcoin does not go completely over the top, there will be no more 70% corrections. I'm sticking with that :D These cascading effects are all still there, but they are cushioned by all the institutional buyers. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a "safe haven" and the institutions also clearly understand the difference between Bitcoin and other coins. You only have to look at the Bitcoin ETFs compared to the ETH ETFs.

That's also the reason why I don't think there will be any more such excessively strong altcoin seasons. Institutional money is not moving from Bitcoin into ETH, then into Cardano and then into Fartcoin. The buyers are more professional now, they tick differently. You have to bear that in mind. Of course, the states won't go along with this either.

When the retailers come back in at some point (and they will), they will probably drive the price up the last few percent - and as soon as the price heads south again, they will be out again.
This will again trigger cascading effects and panic - but not to the extent that we have seen in recent cycles.

However, I can also imagine that retail interest in Bitcoin will no longer be so great because Bitcoin is simply too expensive visually. When the price is above 100,000, people don't assume that they can still make big gains with it. Perhaps the retailers will then remain entirely in the altcoin market and try to gamble there. I can well imagine that happening.

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

You said the reporting on Getquin is the best counter-indicator 😇. The last few weeks have been quiet, now it feels like every second post is about $BTC... My exit scenario level 1 was when I reached 117,000 USD or 15% trading success. I sold my bills at a price of 18 and thank you for taking them with you. For every euro, there's a coin for you and if we ever meet in person, a crate of beer 🍺 on top. 😊

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