3Semana·

Oops - broken promise?🙃

Strategy $MSTR (+0,95%) bought 196 $BTC (+1,65%) last week. This was mainly financed by "printing" ordinary shares (and a few prefs).

However, for the first time, Saylor was apparently unable to keep his promise to only buy Bitcoin if it caused BTC/share to rise. This fell slightly with the last purchase.

The reason for this is apparently the dividends the prefs have to pay. They were therefore only able to use part of the new capital to buy Bitcoin.

It will be interesting to see how this develops. If this happens more often, it could turn into a negative cycle. Investors could lose confidence, the mNav would fall further and Strategy would no longer be able to print its own shares as easily. Nevertheless, the dividends of the prefs must be paid werden🤷‍♂️

The question is of course whether they have really done themselves a favor with the prefs and the high dividends they pay.

https://www.blocktrainer.de/blog/strategy-kauft-196-bitcoin-und-die-btc-yield-sinkt

www.blocktrainer.deStrategy kauft 196 Bitcoin und die „BTC Yield“ sinkt

14 Comentários

Epi@Epi

3Semana

Well, this is probably the end of Strategy.
The downward cycle has begun. 😈

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@Epi Let's see - it remains exciting. According to Saylor's statements, they can pay the dividends out of their own pockets for many years. Why he is now breaking his promise to pay the dividends should at least give you pause for thought :D
Above all, Saylor said on TV yesterday that Strategy plans to issue prefs in foreign currencies. If there are ~10% dividends on them again, one can wonder how this is supposed to work.
Apart from that, however, the key figures still look perfectly fine... and the first convertible bonds are not due for another 3-4 years. It should not be forgotten that they have already survived a bear market and an mNav of 0.8. But back then they didn't have to pay dividends bezahlen🤷‍♂️

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Artiskon@Artiskon

3Semana

I'm with Sunny on this one and I'm curious to see when the whole treasury card house (not only or inevitably at Strategy B) will collapse and give us a nice winter.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@Artiskon I'm curious about that too. I'm not 100% with Sunny on this, but I understand what he means. He says that the Treasurys are not buying BTC because of the fundamentals, but out of pure speculation. I wouldn't go that far. If companies understand the characteristics of Bitcoin and want to use them for their own benefit or grow their balance sheet alongside their operating business thanks to Bitcoin, I think that's great.
Strategy has also done a great job so far. But maybe in the end the prefs were the straw that broke the camel's back. Regardless of that, I think it's great that the market is in the process of finding out to what extent Bitcoin can be used as a business. All those who go bust because they were overleveraged or had no core business will in turn be an example to others of how not to do it.
The next stage might be countries that play the same game :D

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All-in-or-nothing@All-in-or-nothing

3Semana

Unfortunately, it was foreseeable that the system could reach its limits.🫣 Unfortunately, it tends to be impossible to pay operating costs from capital measures or borrowings without operating income. 😅🤷🏼‍♂️ Unfortunately, this financing instrument was more of a shot in the arm; the strategy worked well beforehand, but in my view the prefs overshot the mark. You have to be able to afford running costs on an ongoing basis.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@All-in-or-nothing Yes, it may well be that they have overshot the mark. Yesterday Saylor said on live TV that they are also planning to launch prefs in foreign currencies. Will be exciting😂

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All-in-or-nothing@All-in-or-nothing

3Semana

@stefan_21 Oh my shame, oh man🤦🏼‍♂️🫣. Then it will be even more exciting to see how the whole thing continues and where it develops.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@All-in-or-nothing Yes, I do think that Saylor at least has a plan for how the running costs are to be paid. But simply printing shares all the time is fatal. That destroys mNav and its business model

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Chris@Multibagger

3Semana

Short, short, short in my opinion they can only be saved by a strong $BTC rise. It probably won't be long before he has to sell the first $BTC to cover his costs. This could then lead to an avalanche and the resulting price losses at $BTC could drag further Treasurys to their doom.
Perhaps we will see bitcoin prices of 50-60 k$ after all. In general, I am always cautious about companies that only make money through capital measures.

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Klein-Anleger1@Klein-Anleger1

3Semana

@Multibagger Are you really going short? Actually, nothing would currently speak in favor of a rise in the MicroStrategy price 🤔

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@Multibagger that can take longer than you think. Strategy is not as overleveraged as you might think. I think the debt ratio is currently around 20%. Compared to many other companies, this is of course a joke. And they still have their small core business, which is profitable.
But if Strategy goes bust - for whatever reason - and they have to sell their BTC, then we will certainly see prices of 50-60k again :D

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Semana

@Klein-Anleger1 Shortly before the potentially strongest quarter for Bitcoin, I personally would not short Strategy. A rising BTC price would be one reason that could cause prices to rise :)

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Chris@Multibagger

3Semana

@Klein-Anleger1 I really haven't thought about that yet, and I don't think so, as there are lower-risk trades that can yield good performances until the end of the year.

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SGP@Koenigmidas

3Semana

This is how it begins ....On the trail of the Hunt brothers....

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