Hello everyone,
Here's Raketentoni from the test pit again! 🔧 You've stung the wasp's nest of the day. Adidas ($ADS) is currently trading at just under 137 euros and has taken a real beating today (early March 2026) - down almost 8% in one day.
I drove the car straight onto the lifting platform. Here's the TÜV report and my honest opinion on why it's crashing and whether we should unpack the landing net now.
1. why the deluge? (The list of defects)
There are two very specific reasons for the crash:
The outlook for 2026 is disappointing: CEO Bjørn Gulden finished 2025 strongly, but only forecast an operating profit of around €2.3 billion for 2026. Analysts had expected over 2.7 billion.
The Trump shock (tariffs & currencies): Adidas expects extreme headwinds of almost 400 million euros this year, primarily due to new US tariffs and unfavorable exchange rates. Added to this is tough competitive pressure from hype brands such as On and Asics. The market is mercilessly pricing in this uncertainty.
2. the reality check (formula test)
Let's take out the emotions and run the hard 2025 figures (sales of 24.8 billion euros, operating profit of 2.05 billion euros) through my filters:
Core Quality Formula:
Sales growth: currency-adjusted growth was a strong 13% in 2025.
Operating margin: Although this has improved, it is only 8.3%.
My score: 13 (growth) + 8.3 (margin) = 21.3.
Verdict: "Solid". The magic threshold of 25 for top quality is still not reached. The turnaround is underway, but we are not yet talking about a highly profitable money-making machine.
Cash flow & valuation (substance):
The cash flow is basically right (Adidas is just starting a €1bn share buyback program), but the valuation is not yet an absolute bargain for the current margin level.
The P/E ratio based on 2025 earnings is around 17 to 18.
At just under 1.0, the P/E ratio (price-sales) is historically favorable, but reflects the low margins.
3. the dividend check (income core)
Adidas falls completely through the cracks here:
Yield: they may have raised the dividend for 2025 to 2.00 euros, but at the current share price of around 137 euros, that's just ~1.45% dividend yield.
Verdict: My hard minimum requirement of 3.5% is miles away. The exception rule (low dividend okay with high growth and extremely strong balance sheet) does not apply to me here, as earnings growth will be massively slowed by the tariffs in 2026.
Conclusion & strategy
Is this a buy at the moment?
I don't currently have a TÜV sticker for a new purchase. 🛑
Adidas is not a "story without substance" (the exclusion rule does not fully apply as the margin is > 5% and sales growth is intact), but it does not meet the elite values of my core formula or even come close to the requirements for the income portfolio.
If you want to play the turnaround under Gulden, buy a bet here that the tariffs will not be as bad as feared. For my own money, however, I won't go for a falling knife with a single-digit margin.
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀
Key figures for your data sheet (price ~137 EUR):
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): ~17.5
Price-cash flow ratio (KCV): ~12
Price-sales ratio (KUV): ~1.0
Price-Book Value Ratio (P/BV): ~4.5
Dividend Yield: ~1.45
Here's Raketentoni from the test pit again! 🔧 You've stung the wasp's nest of the day. Adidas ($ADS) is currently trading at just under 137 euros and has taken a real beating today (early March 2026) - down almost 8% in one day.
I drove the car straight onto the lifting platform. Here's the TÜV report and my honest opinion on why it's crashing and whether we should unpack the landing net now.
1. why the deluge? (The list of defects)
There are two very specific reasons for the crash:
The outlook for 2026 is disappointing: CEO Bjørn Gulden finished 2025 strongly, but only forecast an operating profit of around €2.3 billion for 2026. Analysts had expected over 2.7 billion.
The Trump shock (tariffs & currencies): Adidas expects extreme headwinds of almost 400 million euros this year, primarily due to new US tariffs and unfavorable exchange rates. Added to this is tough competitive pressure from hype brands such as On and Asics. The market is mercilessly pricing in this uncertainty.
2. the reality check (formula test)
Let's take out the emotions and run the hard 2025 figures (sales of 24.8 billion euros, operating profit of 2.05 billion euros) through my filters:
Core Quality Formula:
Sales growth: currency-adjusted growth was a strong 13% in 2025.
Operating margin: Although this has improved, it is only 8.3%.
My score: 13 (growth) + 8.3 (margin) = 21.3.
Verdict: "Solid". The magic threshold of 25 for top quality is still not reached. The turnaround is underway, but we are not yet talking about a highly profitable money-making machine.
Cash flow & valuation (substance):
The cash flow is basically right (Adidas is just starting a €1bn share buyback program), but the valuation is not yet an absolute bargain for the current margin level.
The P/E ratio based on 2025 earnings is around 17 to 18.
At just under 1.0, the P/E ratio (price-sales) is historically favorable, but reflects the low margins.
3. the dividend check (income core)
Adidas falls completely through the cracks here:
Yield: they may have raised the dividend for 2025 to 2.00 euros, but at the current share price of around 137 euros, that's just ~1.45% dividend yield.
Verdict: My hard minimum requirement of 3.5% is miles away. The exception rule (low dividend okay with high growth and extremely strong balance sheet) does not apply to me here, as earnings growth will be massively slowed by the tariffs in 2026.
Conclusion & strategy
Is this a buy at the moment?
I don't currently have a TÜV sticker for a new purchase. 🛑
Adidas is not a "story without substance" (the exclusion rule does not fully apply as the margin is > 5% and sales growth is intact), but it does not meet the elite values of my core formula or even come close to the requirements for the income portfolio.
If you want to play the turnaround under Gulden, buy a bet here that the tariffs will not be as bad as feared. For my own money, however, I won't go for a falling knife with a single-digit margin.
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀
Key figures for your data sheet (price ~137 EUR):
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): ~17.5
Price-cash flow ratio (KCV): ~12
Price-sales ratio (KUV): ~1.0
Price-Book Value Ratio (P/BV): ~4.5
Dividend Yield: ~1.45
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1414
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@Raketentoni I wouldn't touch any of these consumer stocks with pliers.
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22
•@Multibagger this is what it looks like, the same as Nike 😬
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