David Ellison enters the arena (again), and suddenly Netflix isn’t the only predator anymore
Just after the market had already crowned Netflix the inevitable winner in the Warner Bros. Discovery saga, and people started philosophising about the future of cinemas, Paramount crashed the party. Or, to be more exact, David Ellison and his infinite chequebook did. What looked like a clean, strategic, almost-too-perfect Netflix takeover has now turned into a full-blown media brawl, with Paramount leading a consortium that’s willing to pay more, fight harder, and play dirtier if needed.
The revised Paramount-backed offer tops Netflix’s proposal meaningfully at $30 per share, all-cash, and Ellison argues that it’s structured in a way that could actually improve its odds with regulators. Ironically, that might be the biggest advantage of all. Netflix buying WBD would further consolidate streaming power into one already-dominant player. Paramount, on the other hand, can argue it’s rescuing and restructuring rather than monopolizing, to create more competition for Netflix and co. A bigger check for shareholders and a potentially easier antitrust path. Doesn’t look great for Netflix here.
But money isn’t the only weapon here. Politics matter. Netflix’s very visible “woke-first” reputation doesn’t exactly play well with a Trump-influenced regulatory environment, and yes, that suddenly matters again. And Donald Trump is the first one to bend the rules in his favor if he deems it necessary. So, you don’t want to be on his bad side. What’s crucial to Paramount’s bid is the quiet support of Jared Kushner-linked capital, which massively changes the political calculus. This isn’t just a financial offer, it’s a strategically aligned one. The cards already seem to be in Paramount’s favor, but there’s one more ace to play:
David Ellison.
This is where things get very uncomfortable for Netflix. Ellison isn’t some social climber scraping together funds, he’s the son of Larry Ellison, one of the richest people on the planet, with effectively unlimited financial resources. If this turns into a bidding war, David Ellison can simply… not lose. An extra $20 billion? Annoying, but doable. All it takes is a mildly uncomfortable dinner conversation. Try competing with a buyer who can call his father for an advance on his inheritance that would be enough to buy a small country. This is someone who’s not used to losing and certainly doesn’t plan to start now.
That said, Paramount isn’t without weaknesses. Regulators may reasonably question whether a $15B market-cap company can digest an $80B+ takeover without imploding. And this is now a hostile bid. Ellison openly stated that WBD management can’t accept the offer anyway, because doing so after rejecting an identical one days ago would invite lawsuits over breached fiduciary duty. So the offer goes straight to shareholders. Gloves off. We are seeing a showdown between a streaming empire and a son with something to prove.
Netflix may or may not be the better operator. But it’s the most politically exposed, the most disliked, and the least flexible in a fight where power, not efficiency, decides the outcome.
This deal just went from “strategic acquisition” to “succession-level drama.” And David Ellison didn’t enter this to come in second.
