1Mês
You talk a lot about the advantage of diversification. I basically agree with you on that. And your portfolio in August too.
However, I'm surprised that, despite your speech, you don't diversify either in terms of asset classes or strategies. Why not? 🤔
However, I'm surprised that, despite your speech, you don't diversify either in terms of asset classes or strategies. Why not? 🤔
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@Epi
You are absolutely right: I diversify extremely strongly within the equity asset class (across 43 countries, 12 sectors, etc.), but I deliberately do not diversify across different asset classes such as bonds, commodities or real estate. My portfolio is a 100% equity allocation.
The reason for this is a conscious strategic decision based on two pillars:
Long investment horizon: my strategy is designed for a 15+ year time horizon. Historically, no other asset class has achieved a higher return than the equity market over such long periods.
Maximizing compound interest:
My primary goal is to maximize long-term wealth accumulation. Other, safer asset classes such as bonds or cash would act as a "drag" on the compound interest effect in my current phase of life. I am prepared to accept higher fluctuations in the short to medium term.
So it's a targeted bet on the long-term growth of the global economy that suits my personal risk tolerance and my age. But your question is absolutely valid - for an investor with a shorter horizon or lower risk tolerance, diversification across different asset classes would be imperative.
You are absolutely right: I diversify extremely strongly within the equity asset class (across 43 countries, 12 sectors, etc.), but I deliberately do not diversify across different asset classes such as bonds, commodities or real estate. My portfolio is a 100% equity allocation.
The reason for this is a conscious strategic decision based on two pillars:
Long investment horizon: my strategy is designed for a 15+ year time horizon. Historically, no other asset class has achieved a higher return than the equity market over such long periods.
Maximizing compound interest:
My primary goal is to maximize long-term wealth accumulation. Other, safer asset classes such as bonds or cash would act as a "drag" on the compound interest effect in my current phase of life. I am prepared to accept higher fluctuations in the short to medium term.
So it's a targeted bet on the long-term growth of the global economy that suits my personal risk tolerance and my age. But your question is absolutely valid - for an investor with a shorter horizon or lower risk tolerance, diversification across different asset classes would be imperative.
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•1Mês
@Derspekulant1 I can understand your reasoning. In the long term, over 15 years, the MSCIWorld has never been in the red.
However... there is always a however...
If one consistently follows your logic of long-term investment with higher return with higher risk, then I wonder why you don't use leverage.
Low leveraged ETFs like $CL2 have a much higher long term return than your portfolio. Compared to that, your portfolio is like a pile of bonds. 😅
In short: in your logic, the Epi-Power portfolio would actually be just right: 50% 2x MSCIWorld, 30% 2xGold, 20% BTC each with SMA200 signal. Goes off like Schmitz's cat and the risk is lower than with your portfolio. 😬
However... there is always a however...
If one consistently follows your logic of long-term investment with higher return with higher risk, then I wonder why you don't use leverage.
Low leveraged ETFs like $CL2 have a much higher long term return than your portfolio. Compared to that, your portfolio is like a pile of bonds. 😅
In short: in your logic, the Epi-Power portfolio would actually be just right: 50% 2x MSCIWorld, 30% 2xGold, 20% BTC each with SMA200 signal. Goes off like Schmitz's cat and the risk is lower than with your portfolio. 😬
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@Epi
Interesting discussion. Let's take your thesis that your quantitative strategy is superior and check it against the hard, public facts of your own wikifolio and profile.
The math:
Your wikifolio performance since initial issue: -2.6%. So an investor who trusted you on day one has lost money in a bull market in which I made +20% in one year and even a current account had a better performance than your wikifolio. For your information, my portfolio hasn't just been around for a year.
Your YTD performance (Getquin): -2,1%.
My YTD performance: +12.75%.
So the data shows that in the real world - despite a bull market since May 2024 - your strategy has so far delivered a negative return for investors, while a fundamental, diversified approach has delivered a significant outperformance.
The explanation:
Your strategy has extreme volatility of over 40% and the "volatility drag" of leveraged products systematically destroys capital. My portfolio, on the other hand, survived the bear market in 2022 and achieved an annualized return of over 10%.
Here is another calculation (Gemini 2.5 pro) from the start of my portfolio with my invested capital:
Epi vs The Speculator
(Jan 2022 - Sep 2025)
Your strategy (simulated):
Starting capital: € 24,577
Simulated final value: approx. €26,050
Simulated net profit: approx. +1,473 €
(+6,0%)
My strategy (real):
Starting capital: € 24,577
Real final value: € 31,806
Real net profit: +6,396 €
(+26,0%)
My conclusion:
My well-intentioned advice: Before you present your strategy as superior to other investors without being asked, you should perhaps first take care of getting your own portfolio into the green zone. 👍
Interesting discussion. Let's take your thesis that your quantitative strategy is superior and check it against the hard, public facts of your own wikifolio and profile.
The math:
Your wikifolio performance since initial issue: -2.6%. So an investor who trusted you on day one has lost money in a bull market in which I made +20% in one year and even a current account had a better performance than your wikifolio. For your information, my portfolio hasn't just been around for a year.
Your YTD performance (Getquin): -2,1%.
My YTD performance: +12.75%.
So the data shows that in the real world - despite a bull market since May 2024 - your strategy has so far delivered a negative return for investors, while a fundamental, diversified approach has delivered a significant outperformance.
The explanation:
Your strategy has extreme volatility of over 40% and the "volatility drag" of leveraged products systematically destroys capital. My portfolio, on the other hand, survived the bear market in 2022 and achieved an annualized return of over 10%.
Here is another calculation (Gemini 2.5 pro) from the start of my portfolio with my invested capital:
Epi vs The Speculator
(Jan 2022 - Sep 2025)
Your strategy (simulated):
Starting capital: € 24,577
Simulated final value: approx. €26,050
Simulated net profit: approx. +1,473 €
(+6,0%)
My strategy (real):
Starting capital: € 24,577
Real final value: € 31,806
Real net profit: +6,396 €
(+26,0%)
My conclusion:
My well-intentioned advice: Before you present your strategy as superior to other investors without being asked, you should perhaps first take care of getting your own portfolio into the green zone. 👍
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1Mês
@Derspekulant1 So you're judging a strategy solely on its 8-month performance? How about 3 months or 18 or 30 or 50 or 1 day? The 3xGTAA Wikifolio had a daily performance of +0.93% on September 3rd. And your portfolio? Ask your bot what it says.
Besides, I didn't recommend 3xGTAA to you at all - you wouldn't be ready for it yet (QED). In fact, I didn't recommend anything at all. I just drew a logical conclusion from your own reasoning. If you don't like that... 🤷
Besides, I didn't recommend 3xGTAA to you at all - you wouldn't be ready for it yet (QED). In fact, I didn't recommend anything at all. I just drew a logical conclusion from your own reasoning. If you don't like that... 🤷
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•@Epi perform you first a current account from then you can try to explain to me what I should do better.
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•1Mês
@Derspekulant1 I think it doesn't matter in which time period 3xGTAA performs how for someone who is not impressed by facts, science or logic.
As if the logical consequence of an argument depends on the performance of some sub-strategy in some sub-period of the person who pointed out the consequence! 😂
Well, I wish you good luck with your portfolio anyway!
As if the logical consequence of an argument depends on the performance of some sub-strategy in some sub-period of the person who pointed out the consequence! 😂
Well, I wish you good luck with your portfolio anyway!
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@Epi
You talk about science and logic. The ultimate scientific method in the stock market is the practical test with real money.
The real, logical result of your live experiment since May 2024 is a performance of -3.2% (as of today 04.09.2025 according to your wikifolio) for your investors - in a bull market. No theoretical backtest can refute this real, negative result.
I also wish you the best of luck in optimizing your strategy so that it also yields a positive return in practice in the future. 👍
You talk about science and logic. The ultimate scientific method in the stock market is the practical test with real money.
The real, logical result of your live experiment since May 2024 is a performance of -3.2% (as of today 04.09.2025 according to your wikifolio) for your investors - in a bull market. No theoretical backtest can refute this real, negative result.
I also wish you the best of luck in optimizing your strategy so that it also yields a positive return in practice in the future. 👍
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1Mês
@Derspekulant1 All right. To prick the bubble: According to https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa, the performance since 21.5.2024 as of today is +27.4%.
$VWRL has gained +10.8% in this time. $XEON +3,7%.
I think that settles most of your assertions and conclusions.
But I also think that these facts will not matter.
Where we are now in the discussion, it probably won't matter if 3xGTAA is up 50% in a year, as long as there is still a period somewhere in which the Wikifolio certificate has underperformed any benchmark index.
And even if it did matter, I think you will find reasons not to draw the logical conclusion from your own argument.
Logic is just a bitch! 🤷
$VWRL has gained +10.8% in this time. $XEON +3,7%.
I think that settles most of your assertions and conclusions.
But I also think that these facts will not matter.
Where we are now in the discussion, it probably won't matter if 3xGTAA is up 50% in a year, as long as there is still a period somewhere in which the Wikifolio certificate has underperformed any benchmark index.
And even if it did matter, I think you will find reasons not to draw the logical conclusion from your own argument.
Logic is just a bitch! 🤷
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@Epi
Interesting that you now choose 21.05.2024 as the starting point for your performance and not the day of the initial issue, which is relevant for your investors from the very beginning.
Let's take a look at the official, audited total figures for your Wikifolio, which tell the whole story:
* Performance since initial issue: -3.2%
* Volatility (1 year): 41,4%
So you are comparing the short-term recovery of an extremely high-risk strategy (with over 40% volatility) with a broadly diversified ETF, while your first hour investors are still in the red. That's not a fair comparison, that's the definition of cherry-picking.
My performance is real, crisis-tested and transparent. I wish you every success in getting your wikifolio into the green for the long term. This discussion is over for me because I know that your portfolio will no longer exist in the next downturn because you have seen nothing but good weather on the stock market and everyone thinks they are professionals and scientists anyway.
Interesting that you now choose 21.05.2024 as the starting point for your performance and not the day of the initial issue, which is relevant for your investors from the very beginning.
Let's take a look at the official, audited total figures for your Wikifolio, which tell the whole story:
* Performance since initial issue: -3.2%
* Volatility (1 year): 41,4%
So you are comparing the short-term recovery of an extremely high-risk strategy (with over 40% volatility) with a broadly diversified ETF, while your first hour investors are still in the red. That's not a fair comparison, that's the definition of cherry-picking.
My performance is real, crisis-tested and transparent. I wish you every success in getting your wikifolio into the green for the long term. This discussion is over for me because I know that your portfolio will no longer exist in the next downturn because you have seen nothing but good weather on the stock market and everyone thinks they are professionals and scientists anyway.
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1Mês
@Derspekulant1 Just as a comparison, because you criticize the volatility of leveraged products: 3xGTAA and also the leveraged portfolio with the 200SMA strategy are of course volatile.
But:
Over the same period (start 2022, starting money 28000$ after rough USD-EUR conversion) the non-leveraged portfolio of the 150SMA strategy (with world ETF, gold, BTC and cash) has the following metrics:
End Balance: 41,478$
CAGR: 15.34%
Max. Drawdown: -6.48%
at least according to portfoliovisualizer.com. Similar patterns also emerge for earlier starting points (unfortunately it is not possible to test earlier than 2016). So the strategy definitely has potential for outperformance even without leverage. Nevertheless, my hat is off to your active strategy and your results!
But:
Over the same period (start 2022, starting money 28000$ after rough USD-EUR conversion) the non-leveraged portfolio of the 150SMA strategy (with world ETF, gold, BTC and cash) has the following metrics:
End Balance: 41,478$
CAGR: 15.34%
Max. Drawdown: -6.48%
at least according to portfoliovisualizer.com. Similar patterns also emerge for earlier starting points (unfortunately it is not possible to test earlier than 2016). So the strategy definitely has potential for outperformance even without leverage. Nevertheless, my hat is off to your active strategy and your results!
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