2D·

Your opinion (help needed)

Hello my dears,

I'm currently having doubts about my ETFs or am thinking about reallocating them and would like some advice. I have an investment horizon of at least 35-40 years and a clear strategy.

2 Etfs 70%, 15% equities, 15% Bitcoin.

Savings plan on these 2 Etfs and Bitcoin. Saving some money on the side to buy or re-buy stocks, preferably during major corrections.

The question I am now asking myself is to exchange the Msci World (Amundi) for an S&P500.

This Etf makes/should make up 50% of my portfolio. The S&P500 has always performed better in the long term and I naturally want to achieve the maximum possible return. Many things don't work without the USA and the chart has proven this so far, so I don't see why this should change in the future.

My second question is that I would like to put 20% into a future-oriented ETF to improve the return somewhat.

There would be 2 candidates for me to choose from.

The AI & Big Data USD $XAIX (+0,46%) or the S&P 500 Information Tech $IUIT (+0,71%) . I'm having a hard time thinking about it, the AI Big Data is a bit more balanced but a bit more expensive and the performance a bit worse than the S&P500 Info Tech and it's also a bit cheaper and the performance was better, but the 4 largest positions make up a large part of the ETF.

I hope for some help and advice and thank you in advance.

Best regards :)

15 Comentários

Werner L.@capital_sherpa_1182

Hello MrSchnitzel,

you're already doing a lot of things right - thinking long-term and having a clear strategy is already a big step in the right direction.

1. the MSCI World vs. the S&P 500

Swapping your MSCI World ETF for an S&P 500 can make sense if you are prepared to invest even more heavily in the US market, which already accounts for around 70% of the MSCI World. But:
- MSCI World gives you a bit more geographic diversification (e.g. Japan, UK, etc.).
- S&P 500 has historically performed better, but is heavily concentrated in a few large US tech stocks.

Suggestion: A compromise would be e.g. 30 % S&P 500 + 20 % MSCI World ex USA. This way you maintain a strong US position, but still have a broader diversification.

⸻

2nd AI & Big Data ETF ($XAIX) vs. S&P 500 Info Tech ETF ($IUIT)

You have already recognized the pros and cons well. Here are a few thoughts:
- $XAIX (AI & Big Data): slightly broader based, thematically exciting, but more expensive and slightly weaker performance.
- $IUIT (S&P 500 Info Tech): cheaper, better performance, but very focused (probably on Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, etc.).

If you want the maximum possible return and can live with the concentration: take $IUIT.
If you are looking for a broader, future-oriented diversification of topics: then rather $XAIX.

Note, however, that both ETFs are growth-oriented and strongly focused on the USA.

⸻

Conclusion

Your strategy looks very solid overall:
- 70% ETFs
- 15% individual stocks (to buy during corrections - very sensible)
- 15% Bitcoin (bold move, but understandable as a long-term component)

The only thing to watch out for is the cluster risk, especially if you choose both S&P 500 and Info Tech ETF. Maybe MSCI World ex USA + S&P 500 Info Tech would be a good mix of innovation and geographic diversification.

I'm curious to see what you decide!

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@capital_sherpa_1182 Thank you for your kind and detailed feedback. I will think about the whole thing a bit more, I agree with you. I am definitely aware of the cluster risk, but I have a long investment horizon and am convinced by these ETFs, and I don't want to diversify. I have already read up a bit on the subject and am not a fan of EM, for example.
Bitcoin is deliberately selected at 15% because I am convinced of this currency/digital gold and more and more people are investing in it and it could be the future, plus I am still a little younger and can still take a certain amount of risk.
Regards:)

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Stulle 🥪@Stullen-Portfolio

Hmmm, you ask for "help and advice", but when I look at your replies to the previous answers, it looks like you are not looking for advice, but would rather have confirmation.

Maybe ask yourself again honestly whether that might be the case (at least in part).

And also always consider your own investment horizon and how you will or should react if the assumptions you make today (about the USA and tech, for example) do not materialize in the long term.

The third thing you could do is realize why you are making these limiting assumptions today in the first place or on what unshakeable basis you are making these assumptions today.

It will be fine. ✌️

Greetings
🥪

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@Stullen-Portfolio The basic idea is to focus mainly on ETFs, a few stocks and some Bitcoin. I have read up a bit on the subject and read books by Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham etc. and acquired some knowledge on YouTube. I've picked up bits and pieces from everywhere and changed and improved my tactics/opinion a bit. I'm relatively new and of course you question things, you want to get the best out of it and wanted to get some opinions and see other strategies. The selection and tech sector is well known, because I am convinced of it, I am just unsure which is the better ETF and whether I am mainly betting on the USA. I hope you have some understanding for this and understand my situation. As I mentioned, I want to invest for the long term and get the best out of it, so I'm currently trying things out.
Best regards and I wish you continued success with your investing. :)

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

For fuck's sake, do it!

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@Ph1l1pp So you're reallocating to the S&P500 and the S&P500 Info Tech, right?

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@MrSchnitzel I only have the $XLKS as a core.

I see no reason why, over an investment horizon like yours, you would prefer a World to the S&P.

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@Ph1l1pp Isn't that a real Etf? I don't see the splits at TR, which is managed by Invesco as I see it, right?
Putting everything on one sector and only on this "Etf" would probably be a bit too risky for me, but of course that's a matter of taste. Maybe you could play with the weighting and say e.g. 40% S&P500 and 30% S&P500 Info Tech what do you think? What does your strategy/allocation look like?
Thanks for your insight, very interesting. :)

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@MrSchnitzel includes all tech companies of the S&P500, capped at 20% per individual stock.

Over the last 10 years 21% CAGR (vs 13.8% for the S&P500) with better Sharpe Ratio (0.98 vs 0.79) but at the same time higher max drawdown (31% vs 24%).

Is a very aggressive strategy and probably requires a partly active approach before the protection of an AI/tech bubble (dotcom crash -80%)

My portfolio currently consists of around 40% cash, 25% BTC and 40% S&P Tech sector ETF, whereby I will buy back a large part of the cash in BTC under 100k within the next 2 months for a strong Q4.

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X Nguyen@ngoog

The question is also what is your goal? To get the maximum return with all of them? Or to build up your assets steadily and solidly with the ETFs and make the return with Bitcoin and individual shares? You can make the bet on an ETF AI & Big Data, but do you know if it will still be going well in 25 years? Thought experiment: 25 years ago, if there had been thematic ETFs, what would have been the most popular back then? Would this sector still be as strong today?

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@ngoog Hello my dear,

The 70% Etfs should provide my basis (diversification or market coverage whereby I do not want to diversify) especially the 50% Msci World and I would also like to favor a theme Etf the AI Big Data to increase the Etf yield of the Msci World a little. I think the topic of AI is only at the beginning and will continue to move the world in the future and be represented everywhere (gaming, robotics, health, etc.)

Bitcoin is self-explanatory. (Digital gold/limited, more and more people are investing in it, especially larger individuals and companies as well as countries, transactions, store of value).

Shares are my hobby and I really enjoy them. I would like to focus mainly on growth stocks plus 1,2 or 3 high-dividend companies such as Allianz for cash flow on the side, which is reinvested. Of course, I hope that this will also increase the return somewhat.

Monthly savings plan on the 2 Etfs mentioned and Bitcoin. In the case of shares, I prefer to buy what's left of my remaining salary during major market corrections.

The goal is to have built up a good fortune in at least 35-40 years in order to realize my dreams.

I hope you can relate to this and understand my strategy and background.
Have a nice Sunday. :)

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Pezi@Pezi

So far I don't see a strategy, just a division...

AI or InfoTech may or may not work....

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MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@Pezi I would be happy to explain my strategy to you. The portfolio breakdown and the plan are already clear.
ETFs:
The 2 ETFs are saved consistently on a monthly basis. The ETFs offer me a basic diversification and to profit from the market (very few beat the market in the long term). I am still convinced of the USA and the tech sector and I am not a fan of the EM ETFs - see performance and diversification.

Equities:
I focus mainly on growth stocks, plus 2-3 dividend stocks for cash flow on the side which is reinvested, e.g. Allianz. Fundamental analysis is very important. Innovation and good/experienced management are also important to me for growth stocks.
In order not to lose the overview, I don't want to add too many stocks to my portfolio.
Bitcoin (digital gold, limited store of value due to inflation for countries, encrypted transactions, more and more people are investing in it and see a lot of future potential).
I hope this can now be defined as a strategy. :)

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Olli@Olli68

O comentário foi eliminado

MrSchnitzel@MrSchnitzel

@Olli68 I would rather not have any dividend ETFs in my portfolio. I want to benefit more from the Ther Etfs because I have a long investment horizon. Thanks for the suggestion though. :)

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