3D·

– A great story, but an overenthusiastic price?

I’ve been following Hims & Hers Health for a while. I like what they’re building — a full-stack personalized healthcare platform. Their growth is real, their brand is strong, and their GLP-1 weight loss results are solid.

But here’s the thing:

🔎 The business:

2.4M+ subscribers
73% YoY revenue growth
Personalized treatments (GLP-1s, mental health, dermatology, etc.)
New verticals coming: hormonal health, longevity, lab testing

✅ The fundamentals look great.

💰 But the valuation?

Market Cap: ~$10B
Free Cash Flow (Q2): -69M
Gross margin dropped to 76%
P/S (forward): ~4.2x
P/E (TTM): ~56x

That’s a lot of optimism baked in.

📉 What would justify $100/share?

$5B revenue
15% net margin
$750M in net income
P/E ~34x

It’s not impossible, but we’re not even close right now.

📌 My take:

I love the business.

But I won’t buy it at $44+.

My fair value range (based on growth, margin potential, and risk):

👉 $33 – $36

Until then, I’m watching. Not chasing hype.

💬 Curious to hear your take — are you long HIMS already?

Or are you like me, waiting for a more reasonable entry point?

#investing
#stocks
#healthcare
#valuation
#HIMS
#getquin
#growthstocks

6 Comentários

DBD_073@DBD_073

What do you think about Oscar health for example if you would make the same analysis?

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G_Lappas10@G_Lappas10

I’ve been looking closely at Oscar lately. In Q2 2025 the company reported a revenue run-rate of around $11.8B (+29% YoY) and reached 2 million members (+28%). Its balance sheet is strong, with $2.6B in cash and only $0.3B in debt, leaving roughly $2.3B in net cash. At the same time, its valuation is very low — EV of about $1.6B and EV/Sales just 0.1x, while peers trade at 0.4–0.6x. Management expects profitability by 2026, and with the GPT-5 “Superagent” integration, Oscar is positioning itself more like a healthtech platform than a traditional insurer.

The sector as a whole has been hit hard in 2025 (some majors are down 40%), but OSCR looks oversold to me. I see fair value somewhere in the $25–34 range versus ~$18 today, which implies +50–100% upside if the company executes. Of course, there’s risk — especially with the Medical Loss Ratio climbing to 91% but that’s the contrarian play: stepping in where others are exiting, particularly when you have a company with growth and a real technological edge.

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DBD_073@DBD_073

@G_Lappas10 thanks for your comment, I’m also invested in Oscar and was wondering what your stance was on it!

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G_Lappas10@G_Lappas10

@DBD_073 Great to hear you’re also in OSCR! 🙌

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AdriInvests@AdriInvests

It's a growth stock. Why would you look at the P/E ratio? A P/S ratio of 4.2 is far from expensive for a company that is growing revenue this quickly imho.

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Ahren@Ahren

Now try the same valuation model but with a 20-30% net margin... They have a more than 70% gross margin and 40% of revenue is used for marketing (which they can easily cut a lot from). Just spending around 25% of revenue on marketing gets them to a net margin of at least 20% over the next few years

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