Hi Julian, I live in Denmark and follow the Scandinavian market more than perhaps others. I have something for you at $NOVO B.
✅ Why a purchase could be attractive
1. market leader in diabetes & obesity
Novo Nordisk is the global leader in diabetes care and in the fast-growing market for obesity treatment.
o Sales in the diabetes segment increased by approx. 20% in 2024 (measured at constant exchange rates).
o In the obesity segment, revenue even grew by ~56% (DKK) in 2024.
o Market potential: The obesity drug market could grow to > USD 100 bn by 2030 or 2035.
This combination - strong position + growing market - is a good foundation.
2. strong competitive and innovation base
o Novo Nordisk has a very strong market position ("economic moat") in diabetes/obesity thanks to brands, patents and high specialization.
o Expansion of production capacities, e.g. investments in Brazil ("one of the largest pharmaceutical investments in Brazil") for scaling.
o Pipeline & expansion of indications: e.g. the approval of Wegovy for a new indication (MASH) shows that the company is not just focusing on existing indications.
3. relative valuation attractiveness
o Some analysts currently see the share as undervalued in view of the growth and market potential.
o Example: One article points out that Novo was trading at less than ~19 times earnings and thus significantly cheaper compared to competitors.
4. solid business and financial structure
o High margins: e.g. gross margin ~84.7% for 2024.
o Strong cash flows and ability to reinvest.
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⚠️ What risks and "why not buy now" aspects to keep in mind
1. strong competition & risk of market share loss
o The obesity/GLP-1 market is becoming increasingly competitive, including from competitors such as Eli Lilly and Co.
o For example, sources report that despite good figures, growth expectations are subdued.
2. downstream execution & production/supply problems
o Growth could be slowed by bottlenecks in production/logistics.
o Approval and market entry of new indications are no guarantees - setbacks possible.
3. valuation risks & market expectations
o Although the share is seen as "undervalued", expectations are high. If growth does not hold, there is a risk of a setback. For example, it was said: "...despite a dominant market, growth remains necessary in the medium to long term to justify valuation".
o Some technical analysts warn of chart support risks.
4. regulatory & price risks
o Price pressure, especially in the US for pharmaceuticals, could weigh on margins and growth.
o Risks associated with approvals: Not all candidates deliver expected results.
CONCLUSION: Personally, I will buy if the price goes below DKK 300, i.e. around € 40 :) In the long term, I think this is a good investment, similar to $GMAB
✅ Why a purchase could be attractive
1. market leader in diabetes & obesity
Novo Nordisk is the global leader in diabetes care and in the fast-growing market for obesity treatment.
o Sales in the diabetes segment increased by approx. 20% in 2024 (measured at constant exchange rates).
o In the obesity segment, revenue even grew by ~56% (DKK) in 2024.
o Market potential: The obesity drug market could grow to > USD 100 bn by 2030 or 2035.
This combination - strong position + growing market - is a good foundation.
2. strong competitive and innovation base
o Novo Nordisk has a very strong market position ("economic moat") in diabetes/obesity thanks to brands, patents and high specialization.
o Expansion of production capacities, e.g. investments in Brazil ("one of the largest pharmaceutical investments in Brazil") for scaling.
o Pipeline & expansion of indications: e.g. the approval of Wegovy for a new indication (MASH) shows that the company is not just focusing on existing indications.
3. relative valuation attractiveness
o Some analysts currently see the share as undervalued in view of the growth and market potential.
o Example: One article points out that Novo was trading at less than ~19 times earnings and thus significantly cheaper compared to competitors.
4. solid business and financial structure
o High margins: e.g. gross margin ~84.7% for 2024.
o Strong cash flows and ability to reinvest.
________________________________________
⚠️ What risks and "why not buy now" aspects to keep in mind
1. strong competition & risk of market share loss
o The obesity/GLP-1 market is becoming increasingly competitive, including from competitors such as Eli Lilly and Co.
o For example, sources report that despite good figures, growth expectations are subdued.
2. downstream execution & production/supply problems
o Growth could be slowed by bottlenecks in production/logistics.
o Approval and market entry of new indications are no guarantees - setbacks possible.
3. valuation risks & market expectations
o Although the share is seen as "undervalued", expectations are high. If growth does not hold, there is a risk of a setback. For example, it was said: "...despite a dominant market, growth remains necessary in the medium to long term to justify valuation".
o Some technical analysts warn of chart support risks.
4. regulatory & price risks
o Price pressure, especially in the US for pharmaceuticals, could weigh on margins and growth.
o Risks associated with approvals: Not all candidates deliver expected results.
CONCLUSION: Personally, I will buy if the price goes below DKK 300, i.e. around € 40 :) In the long term, I think this is a good investment, similar to $GMAB
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@Raketentoni chatgpt 🥱
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