@ClaraLvt It’s an FFFP Calculation. If no misprizing would happen - why would futures and stocks and markets fluctuate? It’s a traders expectation. That’s it. There’s always alternate views. That’s how one wins or looses. I didn’t take a bet on rate cut actions. It’s just my opinion. If I’d be in the feds position, and based on public numbers, I wouldn’t cut and fuel and risk a spike in inflation. Especially since the current rate is rather healthy.

I’d just represent the other 8-ish %.

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1Mês

@Ph1l1pp If I’m wrong so be it. I won’t care and I’ll make money either way long term 🤷‍♂️

I don’t make a finite claim to be right. But you seem to, so I hope you’re right. 👍

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1Mês

@ClaraLvt @Ph1l1pp Oh and lastly: The FED has the problem of double bind.

Cut rates now:
Likely worsens inflation if demand stays strong, especially with tariff-related cost pressures, but could support hiring and avoid layoffs if economy slows. Inflation could de-anchor from 2% target, forcing hawkish comments in the press briefing after. Beeing just as negative as no cut.

Hold rates:
Helps contain inflation, especially from demand side, but risks slowing job growth further, especially in interest-sensitive sectors (housing, capex, credit markets).

One way or the others: some loose some
win.

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

1Mês

@GeldGenie Job numbers are horrible—> rate cuts. And when trillions are poured into betting markets by big banks it’s not just talks but a real analysis that had been made by professionals and you can make big betting against it if you believe that they are wrong. And I am sure you’ve seen the recent raise in bank related stocks after the recent numbers came out, so this rate cuts is mostly already priced in

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1Mês

@ClaraLvt again: double bind.

It’s not just big banks betting 😅

And please read some research on FED rates and banking stock correlation in short and medium term. There‘s enough out there disproving your point.

Not gonna discuss that further unless there‘s actual data-driven arguments 😅

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Ver todas as 7 restantes respostas

Jose@Kspykee

4Semana

Very good intuition 🍻🍻

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misinvest@misinvest

3Semana

@Kspykee thank you my friend 🙏

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

1Mês

Most likely already priced in

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misinvest@misinvest

1Mês

@ClaraLvt the price moves in a very lean range for 3 months now, so I believe it is going to break out

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

3Semana

What broker did you buy it from?

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misinvest@misinvest

3Semana

@priordesantacruz From Erste, but I don’t recommend it, because the fees are really high. Fortunately, I have employee account and I can trade with lower fees 😁

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

3Semana

@misinvest ok i see, thx

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