4Semana·

Innoscripta's Opinion

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts, or if you've heard anything new. Do you see this stock more as a trade, or are you convinced by the story? I'm not really up to speed on this stock—I'll have to look into it over the weekend. Thanks for your insights.

15 Comentários

Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

4Semana

Fundamentally, nothing has changed. It remains a high-margin company on a solid growth trajectory. Although the figures from Q1 to Q2 were significantly weaker due to a temporary effect, catch-up effects should materialize in the Q3 and Q4 results. It is important to ensure that this actually happens. The company’s high dependence on the German market should be taken into account, but this is inherent in providing research and development services to German clients. That said, new markets are already being tapped, and the company has been able to secure its first customers. I’d had them on my watchlist for a while; the sharp pullback was my opportunity to get in—initially intended as a trade while I wait to see how the investigation unfolds. If things resolve themselves reasonably well, I’ll continue to build out the position. If it goes south, my trade is hedged with a stop-loss (SL).

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Semana

@Dividendenopi Exactly like that 👆 💯

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

4Semana

So, I increased my existing position by about 2.5 times in two tranches near the previous low. Out of conviction! Based on the company’s operational strength and quality. In my view, management has also acted in an exemplary manner so far (conducting its own investigations through retained law firms—covering not only the software itself but also processes, governance, etc. With direct reporting to the supervisory board—meaning management itself does not shy away from potential mistakes of its own or the corresponding consequences during these investigations). I’d deliberately ignore comments like “We get so little information.” These are tax investigations, which means that not only will the investigators not be releasing any information particularly quickly, but the company must—and will—also proceed with caution regarding its overall communications for the time being. But I’ve sent my analyst your way to give you a brief overview.😉

There we go:

Hey Value_virtuoso_3073! It’s Rob here again, the cash flow killer. You want the full scoop on Innoscripta SE, following our master prompt to the letter? We’ve got you covered. Buckle up—we’re about to put the company through our 12-point checklist—straightforward, unbiased, and carved right into the text.

The Final Boss Check: Innoscripta SE

1. Financial Check & Multiples:

Let’s look at the bare facts. In the most recent completed half-year (H1/2026), the company generated revenue of 63.0 million euros (a strong increase of 43% compared to the same period last year, which was €44.0 million) and delivered an EBIT of €36.4 million. The official management guidance for the full year 2026 is firmly set at at least 140 million euros in revenue and at least 80 million euros in EBIT. Based on these figures, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio that, on paper, is ridiculously low following the recent price crash (in the range of 11 to 12). Net debt is virtually nonexistent thanks to strong cash generation, the equity ratio is extremely healthy, and the return on equity (ROE/ROIC) shatters every valuation framework under normal operating conditions.

2. Margin Ladder (Profitability):

This is what makes every quality-growth investor’s heart beat faster. In the first half of 2026, the EBIT margin stood at a breathtaking roughly 58%, following a similarly staggering 67.7% in the first quarter. Our ironclad gold standard of a free cash flow (FCF) margin exceeding 15% is not just met here—it’s completely shattered. This is pure software scalability, where every additional euro is almost immediately converted into cash.

3. Piotroski F-Score (Aggregated):

Operationally, this is a straight A with an asterisk. In the profitability category, Innoscripta shines with robust net income and strong operating cash flow. The Financing & Liquidity category shows healthy, clean leverage and solid liquidity without any concerning dilution. In the Operational Efficiency category, the massive gross margins and high inventory turnover rate drive the score to lofty heights.

4. Dividend & Shareholder Check:

In the spring of 2026, a dividend of 4.00 euros per share was proudly approved, but let’s be honest: with such a strong growth story, we don’t need dividend yields in the traditional sense. What’s more important is that management (like founder Hohenester, who recently made massive share purchases) knows how to create shareholder value—even if the stock’s recent price action is currently sending entirely different signals.

5. Regions & Moat:

Geographically, the focus is primarily on the DACH region (with rollouts to France, the UK, and the U.S.). The moat is the “Clusterix” software ecosystem, which becomes inextricably embedded in customers’ accounting and R&D processes to process government research grants—the switching costs are enormous. The total addressable market (TAM) is growing because the government has actually expanded both the funding pools and the assessment criteria. This is a true moat enshrined in law.

6. Guidance, News Flow & Predictable Revenue:

This is where the rub lies. Although guidance stands at 140 million euros in revenue and 80 million euros in EBIT, the news flow from October 2026 has turned everything upside down: raids by the public prosecutor’s office on suspicion of aiding and abetting unauthorized tax benefits related to research grants. Management immediately brought in top law firms for a special audit and insists that operations are running smoothly—but news like this drowns out even the most promising revenue forecast.

7. Skeletons in the Closet / Risks:

To put it bluntly: Having the public prosecutor’s office on your doorstep is the absolute worst-case scenario for a business model built on government subsidies and compliance. Should the allegations be substantiated, the company faces massive reputational damage, customer loss, and trouble that could threaten its very existence. This is a concentrated risk of the harshest kind, which is currently weighing heavily on the stock price.

8. Momentum Check and Sentiment:

The chart is a bloodbath. Following reports of the raids, the stock was brutally sold off and is now trading miles below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Momentum is completely in the gutter, and market psychology is swinging between panic and sheer horror.

9. Alpha & Beta Analysis + Rule of 40 Check:

Growth plus margins? Innoscripta shatters the Rule of 40 mathematically and is actually well beyond the Rule of 100. However, the beta has skyrocketed due to the legal turmoil—the stock is behaving like a crypto stock run amok, reacting extremely exaggeratedly to every news report.

10. DCF Analysis (Fair Value) and Current Valuation Level:

If the core business emerges unscathed from this situation, the fair value based on WACC models is a multiple of today’s price—the stock would be historically undervalued. If the allegations prove true, any DCF calculation is worthless. The market is currently pricing in the maximum risk here.

11. Tactics & Entry Zones:

Aggressive speculators can find entry points at the current price level for a highly speculative turnaround, should the allegations prove to be groundless. Realistic and conservative strategists, on the other hand, will only catch a falling knife in this downtrend once the external auditors and the public prosecutor’s office give the final green light.

12. Final Fitting Score:

The bottom line here is a fundamental cash flow machine of absolute elite quality on paper—held back by a massive, existential legal risk. Those who remain on board as true believers are riding through the eye of the storm. A ride on a razor’s edge!

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value_virtuoso_3073@value_virtuoso_3073

4Semana

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Thank you for the overview

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

4Semana

@Tenbagger-Capital @Dividendenopi @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

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value_virtuoso_3073@value_virtuoso_3073

4Semana

@Aktienhauptmeister Thanks—I was just about to pin that.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

4Semana

@value_virtuoso_3073 No problem ✌️ I traded it briefly last week, but that's about it. Unfortunately, I can't say anything about the fundamentals—I'm not that familiar with it—but maybe those folks can tell you more about it 😬

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🏊🏻‍♂️ • 🚴• 🏃‍♂️ Endurance Life@MozartsGeist

4Semana

The fact that hardly any information or news on the subject is coming out doesn't bode well, in my opinion.

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value_virtuoso_3073@value_virtuoso_3073

4Semana

@MozartsGeist Yeah, I thought I'd get information faster too, but since nothing new is coming through, I'm thinking maybe I'd rather sell it.

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Sebbster@Sebbster

4Semana

@MozartsGeist Well, they're cooperating with the investigators, and it's just going to take some time to sort this out. It doesn't happen overnight. Do you think this whole thing will be over in two days and everything will go back to normal?

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

4Semana

@MozartsGeist To find records related to an employee who has likely not been with the company for quite some time—and which must date back quite a while—you first have to go down to the basement and look through the folders in the archive. And if they’ve been digitized, the government employee has to print them out first and fax them to their office... 😇😜 Check out the investigations into Mutare last year—that took months.

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value_virtuoso_3073@value_virtuoso_3073

4Semana

@Dividendenopi Yeah, government agencies in Germany still use fax machines, so it might take a while :)

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

4Semana

@value_virtuoso_3073 But here are a few serious questions about that: You write that you don’t really have the full picture and would like to hear our assessment. But you’re obviously invested in this yourself right now. Why? What were your reasons? Has anything changed in your (hopefully well-founded) investment thesis as a result of the investigation?

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🏊🏻‍♂️ • 🚴• 🏃‍♂️ Endurance Life@MozartsGeist

4Semana

Okay, okay, I'll admit it—I'm not invested in them! 🩵✌️

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

4Semana

👍🏻

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