1Mês·

Anlage Blickwinkel - Heritage

Dear Community,

I have a 300k securities account with 50% shares, divided between $AAPL (-6,8%)
$ALV (-8,43%)
$AMZN (-3,47%)
$NOVO B (-6,66%) and some $VOW (-3,61%) the other 50% in ETFs, split between $CSPX (-5,42%)
$EXUS (-5,25%)
$NADQ (-5,56%) and something $DE000LS9U6W1 (-11,27%) ...

A strong US (tech) focus is desirable. Not because I believe that the USA does a lot of things right, but shareholder & shareholder value primarily have an influence on entrepreneurship in the USA, ok and the Mag7++ have a top position in other ETFs anyway.

I use the MSCI EX USA to shift the focus away from/to the USA as required.

I have built up this status quo over the last 2 years, after having a lot of individual stocks in the years before and following the "greed eats brains" strategy with some losses (see other post).

Now I would like to read your opinion or collect a few points of view, knowing that there is not THE right one. In the near future I will receive an inheritance of around 400,000 euros. Now I am torn. No, I don't really know what to do. My reflex was "keep going and split up if you're happy with the above strategy/allocation", but perhaps more asset classes could be included with this sum .... and/or more focus on crypto, or more diversification or or or or .... Or everything on GTAA , @Epi :-D hehe - What do you think?

PS: I am 58, IT manager, EFH paid for, 2 children, studies feddich. Controlled build-up with withdrawal plan start in about 5 years. Shift from 50% individual stocks to 75% ETF planned in 2025.

10 Comentários

Patrick@Pazi3

1Mês

the moment when, in addition to crypto and diversification, you are simply called personally😂

I can already see that @Epi is building its own fanboy community 💪🏼

#EpiForPresident

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Epi@Epi

1Mês

@Pazi3 Haha! Most fanboys are probably following the yield of 3xGTAA. Three months of drawdown and I want to see who's left. 😅

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CrashBurner@Psychedelic_Sunflower

1Mês

@Pazi3 according to the wikifolio page there are already over 150k invested...well, a little less after the small correction last week, but still very respectable.

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Epi@Epi

1Mês

Everything on 3xGTAA is certainly not an optimal strategy, at least not if "everything" is a big pile with 58. 😅

If you want to start saving in 5 years, it might be wise to choose a strategy that allows the highest possible withdrawal rate. This in turn depends on the expected return and volatility of the portfolio. The higher the return and lower the volatility, the higher the withdrawal rate. A strategy that lowers volatility without missing out on returns is therefore an obvious choice.
There are various approaches to this, e.g. a portfolio with asset classes that are as uncorrelated as possible, or a simple momentum strategy such as SMA200, SPYTIPS, Faber's Ivy Portfolio (=defensive GTAA).
In the end, diversification across different strategies that are as uncorrelated as possible is probably the safest way to reduce vola.
E.g. 25% B&H equities, 25% B&H ETFs, 25% SPYTIPS, 25% Ivy Portfolio. (10% 3xGTAA as a booster might also work 😉).

Good luck!

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VillaSpilla@VillaSpilla

1Semana

@Epi - I'm currently in the process of finalizing the strategy - thanks AGAIN for your effort and feedback:

1) B&H shares. Check! However, at least 5% of the portfolio should be in one stock, no small ones. So 5 stocks at 25%. With my traditional "Triple A" stocks, which I have had for 7 years ( $AMZN $AAPL $ALV ) and $NOVO B (since 3 weeks) only one stock is missing.

2) B&H ETF. Check! So far $EXUS $NADQ & $CSPX. I think I'll have to swap the CSPX (60%) in favor of the 3rd pillar. I'm still thinking about this and am torn....

3) SPYTIPS. Check! The realization that "using the bulls AND avoiding the bears = success" has given me the final "GO" here. Short cross check @Epi: The $IBC5 and the $DBPG give the 200 day guidance here, correct? CURRENTLY both are ABOVE the 200 moving average, so 100% $CSPX (or the leverage version)

4) As 4th pillar I had the following idea: 20% $WGLD and 5% GTAA

Does that sound right so far? Thanks for your time to read all this.

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Epi@Epi

1Semana

@VillaSpilla You've already done a lot of work. Here's my two cents:
1) Read up on the subject of diversification. 5 stocks is clearly too few, including 2 US LC Tech.
2) The US weighting is very high. Possibly an EM ETF as compensation?
3) Spytips strategy works with and without leverage, you have to know how much risk you want. At the moment 2xSpytips is under water at just under 20%. By the way, SPY is below SMA200.
to 4) What is the idea of the 4th pillar? Anything else?

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VillaSpilla@VillaSpilla

1Semana

@Epi
Pillar 1) I see the idea almost as a Core (Pillar 2&3) - Satellite (B&H Share) strategy . So B&H of the shares in pillar 1, which I consider "performable" and focus on, even if included in the ETF of the 2nd pillar or 3rd pillar
Pillar 2) ... here the US focus goes out. As I said: Still $CSPX, but it goes into pillar 3 as SpyTips or 2xSpyTips. I think EM, MSCI Ex USA, Dividend etc. here I am still unsure. But pillar 2 should hardly have any USA apart from QQQ.
Pillar 3) SpyTips - yes. You have to be able to withstand drawdowns. My $CSPX (which has been based on a $QQQ momentum strategy since December) is also underwater by 10%.
Pillar 4) Above, but probably "folded" because too much was written🤣: Gold 20% and 5% GTAA

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Golden Boy@randomdude

1Mês

Do you know finanzen-erklaert.de? It's a very good blog with highly interesting case studies that revolve around your topic. The author also offers individual advice - I would definitely consider this for the amount you will be managing in the future.
It might make sense to determine the withdrawal rate precisely so that you can divide up your assets: Into the low-risk managed part (e.g. with GTAA etc.), which provides your pension contribution with little volatility, and into the more offensive part, which you don't necessarily have to rely on. I have a similar plan.

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VillaSpilla@VillaSpilla

1Mês

Great. I'll check it out. This is exactly the kind of "1:1 advice" I need (and I don't really trust my comdirect to do this objectively, they have very quick FONDS / Cominvest reflexes) - the tips from @Epi, for example, were great, but the topic is not suitable for the forum. Otherwise it would go back and forth publicly forever, I now have a few questions in response to these tips, for example.
Maybe it's just that my withdrawal rate is low - maybe only 500 euros a month - that would change everything again. Thank you @randomdude 👍🏻

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Golden Boy@randomdude

1Mês

@VillaSpilla In your case, I would definitely use fee-based advice. It's money well spent.

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