4D·

ASML

If $ASML (-2.37%) goes below 530, it is an obligation to buy up, I mean they have the best technology, are one of the few European global market leaders and have a technology that cannot be beaten in the next few years (EUV lithography). I mean, it's clear that the global political tensions here will have an impact on the coming figures, but without ASML, there's no progress in terms of Moore's Law. Or am I missing something here?

21 Comments

Zerax@Zerax

Quarterly figures were good. The market is only reacting somewhat uncertainly due to the existing customs issue. Currently a top buy in the long term. I topped up yesterday. 👍

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@Zerax they have not beaten the last 3 quarters except for now, the outlook was unfortunately not good either. It's a shame, really, given the model.

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Zerax It has nothing to do with customs duties 😂

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Matthias@Aequitas

@Ph1l1pp So with investments of several hundred million dollars for a device, you can already assume that customs duties play a role.
10 or 30% already makes a difference.

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@Aequitas It doesn't help if you didn't have good figures even before the tariffs due to mismanagement

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Matthias@Aequitas

@Derspekulant1 Which key figures do you mean exactly?

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@Aequitas In Q4 2024, EPS was 0.37 cents below expectations; in Q3 2024, net bookings were 51% below expectations. Q1 2024 net bookings were also 33% below expectations.

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Matthias@Aequitas

@Derspekulant1 I somehow found other figures. Both at chatgpt and at fiscal.ai.

Q2 2025 (30.06.25) 16.07.2025 5,94 4,55 -1,39
Q1 2025 (31.03.25) 16.04.2025 6,12 6,31 +0,19
Q4 2024 (31.12.24) 29.01.2025 7,18 7,30 +0,12
Q3 2024 (30.09.24) 15.10.2024 5,24 5,80 +0,56
Q2 2024 (30.06.24) 17.07.2024 3,87 4,32 +0,45
Q1 2024 (31.03.24) 17.04.2024 2,84 3,38 +0,54
Q4 2023 (31.12.23) 24.01.2024 5,12 5,60 +0,48
Q3 2023 (30.09.23) 18.10.2023 5,00 5,23 +0,23
Q2 2023 (30.06.23) 19.07.2023 4,98 5,37 +0,39
Q1 2023 (31.03.23) 19.04.2023 4,59 5,31 +0,72
Q4 2022 (30.09.22) 19.10.2022 - 4,32 -
Q2 2022 (30.06.22) 20.07.2022 3,51 3,77 +0,26
Q1 2022 (31.03.22) 20.04.2022 1,89 3,59 +1,70
Q4 2021 (31.12.21) 19.01.2022 4,31 5,01 +0,70
Q3 2021 (30.09.21) 20.10.2021 4,69 5,02 +0,33
Q2 2021 (30.06.21) 21.07.2021 2,89 3,04 +0,15

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@Aequitas You're right about the EPs, they didn't miss them. But they have missed the net bookings 2 times, which is why there were also strong sell-offs after the figures. From which they still haven't recovered.

Here is the shortfall from Q3 2024:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-earnings-published-early-shares-fall-2024-10-15/

Here is the shortfall from Q1 2024:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-reports-q1-earnings-13-billion-worse-than-expected-new-bookings-2024-04-17/

now they have disappointed again with the outlook so you can assume that it will continue like this. And please don't tell me it's because of the tariffs, TSMC is making profits of 61% more.

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Matthias@Aequitas

In my opinion, the sell-off is due to the statement that growth is expected next year due to the market situation (inflation/economy, customs uncertainties), but cannot be guaranteed.
Interpreting key figures is of course very subjective, but the way I see it, most of them are developing positively.

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Nom@user28461

Don't wait too long to buy more. But if China starts a two-front war with Russia / North Korea, things will go downhill. Let's hope for the best.

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HenryTLK@HenryTLK

@user28461 I thought about waiting until the ex-day, but I'll have to think about it more carefully anyway.

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Al@agdolp

@user28461 yep. but then it won't only go down for asml, i think ;)

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Al@agdolp

that's why i got in at around 588 a few weeks ago ... i agree - at least in the long term and against the backdrop of taiwan tensions.

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

I can tell you that the demand for products/parts for 2026 has gone so high that we probably won't be able to do it.

The demand for the new system is not yet so high, but the old systems are in high demand again because they are a lot cheaper

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