Today I am going to talk to you about Indexa Capital Group $INDXA a Spanish small cap company listed on the BME Growth (the stock exchange for small companies).
Indexa is one of the most famous automated roboadvisors in Spain, being the 8th entity in the country by managed capital with 4,200 Million Euros under management in just a decade of existence.
Their model is simple, they charge much less commissions than entities that offer these services such as Santander, CaixaBank, Bankinter, BBVA, Sabadell, among others...
Indexa currently generates about 2M profit per year (according to guideance) and capitalizes 200M euros, comparing it with the 9 months profits of this 2025, it trades at 200 times profits, and you will think, how is it possible that you even consider that there is an opportunity?
Indexa currently has 120,000 clients and expects a growth rate of 10%, the portfolio of assets under management expects a potential return of +/- 15% both upwards and downwards by the simple evolution of financial markets, the monthly contributions of those who are already clients are approximately 8,000 euros per year on average which can mean an internal growth of 20% of the current assets under management.
Therefore, the guideance estimates a continuous annual growth of 25% until 2030, where they could reach a net profit of about 30M euros, now it makes more sense, doesn't it?
But many of us already know that promises on paper may not be kept, so let's go into more detail;
- In this 2026 Indexa will invest 1.8M€ in Advertising and have an average cost of customer acquisition of 50€ (data from 2025) that would mean 36,000 new customers or what is the same a 30% growth in the number of customers.
- The minimum initial contribution of each client is 2.000€, the average that indexa gives us is about 8.000-10.000€, this added to the previous figure means a growth of 288M€ of the portfolio of assets under management or what is the same, a 7% growth.
- 50% of new clients bring at least one referral through indexa's affiliate program, another point in favor of maintaining these long-term growth figures.
- Assuming that the average client contribution continues to be around €8,000 per year, this would represent a growth of €960M in the portfolio of assets under management, or an increase of 22-23%.
- If we estimate a normal market growth of 8% per year and given that there are different levels of risk (Mixed Portfolios with Bonds) we would estimate a 5% growth in the asset portfolio due to the market effect itself.
- The main income of indexa is the commissions on its assets under management, which is a great catalyst for indexa to start generating ancillary services to its main activity and generate new sources of income.
This would imply a growth in assets under management to 5,650M€ which, compared to 4,200M€, represents an increase of 34% per year (compared to the estimated 25%) which makes me think that the estimated guideance is even conservative, especially considering the growth that the company has had in the past.
If they simply meet the guideance until 2030 we would see a company with a very positive outlook generating 30M€ per year that valued at 50 times earnings (4 times less than today) could result in a valuation of 1.500M€ compared to the 200M€ the company is worth today or what is the same x7 in 5 years
And it is not yet a company that is in indices such as the Ibex35 and has not even been listed on the BME so I had to buy it through Renta4 Banco in the BME Growth market.