Main results:
- Sales: €7.5 billion vs. expected €7.65 billion ❌
- EPS: €5.49 vs. expected €5.37 ✅
- Net orders: €5.4 billion vs. expected €5.2 billion ✅
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Q4 outlook:
- Sales: €9.2-9.8 billion vs. consensus €9.3 billion ✅
- Gross margin: 51-53% vs. consensus 51% ✅
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Outlook 2026:
- ASML does not expect lower total revenues in 2026 compared to 2025
- Full year guidance to follow in January 2026
- Dividend: €1.60 payable in November
- New share buyback program to be presented in January 2026 (2025 program not expected to be fully completed)
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CEO highlights:
- "Lithography intensity continues to increase as EUV adoption accelerates, including progress on high-NA EUV."
- "Investment in AI remains strong and is expanding to more customers in logic and DRAM."
- "We expect demand from China to decline significantly in 2026 after exceptionally strong business in 2024 and 2025."
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Conclusion:
Solid results with EPS and order surprise, slight decline in sales. AI demand and progress in High-NA support the outlook - however, the expected decline in China dampens the momentum for 2026. Investors are now looking ahead to January with new forecast and buyback program.
